Cboe’s Vix troubles could have wider impact
Vix futures contributed around about 40 per cent of Cboe’s recent earnings growth
Exchange-traded products that allow investors to wager on the tranquility of Cboe’s Vix index, a measure of stock market volatility, have helped drive Cboe’s profits in recent years. The exchange-traded notes relied on Vix futures, which can only be traded at Cboe.
But analysts fear the slide in value of two big notes and funds this week will have a bigger impact. Goldman Sachs estimated Vix futures contributed about 40 per cent of Cboe’s earnings growth between 2015 and 2017, excluding its 2016 deal for Bats Global Markets.
Kenneth Worthington, an analyst at JPMorgan, said the liquidation of the exchange-traded notes was “potentially the tip of the iceberg” as trading activity in Vix futures fell away in coming months. If the market moves from its preferred strategy of shorting volatility to one where hedging its risk was dominant, investors might look to other futures contracts, such as CME’s E-mini, he said.