Can GSK turn its drug pipeline into growth under Luke Miels?
New chief must prove pharma group can offset patent expiries and hit ambitious growth targets
When Luke Miels took charge at pharmaceutical group GSK in January, it seemed like a natural next step.
The 51-year-old Australian had wide industry experience and since 2017 had served as chief commercial officer, becoming a trusted lieutenant to his predecessor, Dame Emma Walmsley.
But while the transition was smooth, he has inherited a demanding agenda. Miels must prove the business can deliver commercially successful new drugs to offset looming patent expiries, hit ambitious growth targets that some in the market doubt are achievable and win over sceptical investors.
“It’s such an important year for commercial execution,” said Sean Conroy, an analyst at Shore Capital. “[Miels] doesn’t need to do anything different in a big way. They delivered five new drug approvals in 2025 with billion- dollar potential, they just need to show they can deliver and execute commercially.”
One of the new drugs was Exdensur, an asthma drug with peak annual sales potential of £3bn. Penmenvy, a meningitis vaccine with an estimated $1.1bn in peak sales by 2030, was approved in the EU and America, while the US also reapproved blood cancer drug Blenrep, which had previously been withdrawn from sale. GSK has forecast Blenrep could generate at least £3bn in its peak year.
In January this year, GSK reported positive late-stage trial results for bepirovirsen, a treatment for chronic hepatitis B, which affects 250mn people around the world. Analysts have forecast it could reach peak annual sales of $2bn.
GSK needs drugs in the pipeline to offset some significant patent expiries in the next few years, in particular branded versions of its HIV medicine dolutegravir, which lose US and European exclusivity between 2028 and 2030. The group’s four dolutegravir medicines accounted for 18 per cent of its 2024 sales.
Despite the pipeline worries, GSK’s share price has risen more than 40 per cent from lows in April last year thanks to a combination of upbeat results and regulatory approvals.
It now has a market capitalisation of about £74bn but remains much smaller than its UK rival AstraZeneca, London’s most valuable listed company, to which it is often compared.
Under Walmsley, GSK raised its 2031 revenue target from £38bn to £40bn. The consensus analyst estimate for that year is £35bn and its most recent full-year figures were £31bn in 2024. One analyst said raising the target had made “an unbelievable number even more unbelievable, giving the bears the stick to beat them over the head with”. Miels has previously said he stands by the target.
Although he has not publicly laid out detailed plans for GSK yet, people with knowledge of the company’s thinking say his strategy is starting to take shape.
A top goal is to buy up overlooked reasonably priced drug and biotech assets, allowing it to grow without being drawn into costly bidding wars with richer rivals.
The target price range for deals is $2bn-$4bn, although GSK is willing to pay more if it finds something it considers exceptional, according to one of the people.
In January, GSK agreed a $2.2bn deal to buy Rapt Therapeutics, a US biotech developing a drug to treat food allergies. This follows last year’s acquisition of liver drug efimosfermin from Boston Pharmaceuticals for up to $2bn and an agreement to develop up to 12 drugs with China’s Hengrui Pharma.
At the annual JPMorgan healthcare conference in January, GSK’s chief scientific officer Tony Wood cited the $1.2bn acquisition of cancer biotech IDRx last year and the Boston Pharmaceuticals deal as the company’s “sweet spot” for dealmaking.
However, the group is planning to steer clear of the crowded weight-loss market unless it can find a niche that justifies entering a field dominated by much larger rivals.
In addition to patent expiries, GSK must contend with falling sales in its vaccines business as well as the US government’s hostile policies on science and public health.
After the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention cut the list of routinely recommended childhood vaccinations by a third at the start of the year, the American Academy of Pediatrics called the decision “dangerous and unnecessary” and said it would continue to recommend all of the original vaccines.
GSK’s vaccine business accounted for 29 per cent of revenues in its most recent full year, with shingles jab Shingrix and RSV vaccine Arexvy among its biggest sellers. One of the people close to the company said GSK was confident that the effectiveness of its vaccines meant doctors would continue to recommend them.
Another said Miels was well placed to continue where his predecessor left off, adding they thought Walmsley had not been given enough credit either for delivering consecutive quarters of growth after the coronavirus pandemic or important strategic decisions, such as spinning off the consumer health division Haleon and returning to oncology after her predecessor dropped the lucrative treatment area.
“When Emma arrived, GSK only had a past,” the person said. “Now it has a present and a future.”
Michael Leuchten, head of European pharmaceutical research at Jefferies, said Miels would need to keep running a “much tighter ship” and add assets through acquisitions or licensing deals if GSK was to reach its £40bn revenue target.
“I think they can do it but it’s not going to be a walk in the park.”