Cabinet starts to take charge of Brexit
The problem is that ministers are too divided to impose an agreed approach
The PM’s appearance before MPs this afternoon will be more uncomfortable than any she has endured so far.
Mrs May postponed last week’s landmark Commons vote on her deal, arguing she wanted to get additional changes to the backstop agreed by the EU.
But her encounter with leaders in Brussels last Friday was a humiliation. The growing consensus in the Commons is that the PM’s deal is dead and that her failure to put it to a vote this week is unacceptable.
Whatever theatre there may be this afternoon, tomorrow’s cabinet meeting feels as though it is potentially more important.
With the May deal in its death throes, collective cabinet responsibility has broken down and ministers are now publicly competing in favour of rival outcomes. These are a managed “no deal”; a second referendum; a Norway Plus arrangement; and the May deal.
It looks increasingly as though cabinet is wresting control from an increasingly beleaguered prime minister. The problem for the cabinet is that it is too divided about the way ahead to impose an agreed approach either on Mrs May or the government.
Several ministers, including Greg Clark, are therefore arguing that the Commons should hold indicative votes early in the new year that decide the way ahead.
If those indicative votes happen, how would the Commons divide?
Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia Group consultancy believes that a second referendum is now the most likely prospect, with momentum moving away from Norway Plus.
“Norway Plus is essentially membership absent voting rights,” he says. “Many MPs will find that difficult to support.” In his view, the “base case” now is that parliament will ultimately opt for a referendum.
However, there is still plenty of uncertainty about the way ahead. If MPs fail to converge around any of the alternatives — second referendum, Norway Plus or managed “no deal” — it is not impossible that they might decide to back Mrs May’s deal after all, as the only practical way ahead.