Cabinet ready to back May’s increased Brexit bill offer
UK prime minister keen to break deadlock at next month’s EU Council meeting
UK prime minister Theresa May is expected to get the green light from ministers on Monday to increase her Brexit “divorce bill” offer, narrowing the gap with the EU’s €60bn estimate in a bid to break the deadlock in talks with Brussels.
Eurosceptic cabinet ministers, including foreign secretary Boris Johnson, have indicated they are prepared to accept, with conditions, an increase to the €20bn offer that the UK has already made. One minister predicted the offer would rise to more than €40bn.
Chancellor Philip Hammond told the BBC’s Andrew Marr programme on Sunday: “I think we are on the brink of making some serious movement forward in our negotiations with the EU, and starting to unlock that logjam so that people can start to see clarity about the future.”
Mrs May will on Monday convene her new Brexit “inner cabinet” to discuss tactics ahead of December’s European Council meeting. Ministers are expected to consider the controversial issue of how to flesh out what “commitments” Britain is prepared to honour as it leaves the EU.
The British prime minister wants to persuade EU leaders to allow Brexit talks to move on to a second phase, including discussions of a future trade deal; she also wants them to agree, in principle, a transition deal after Britain leaves in March 2019.
Mrs May will be backed at the 10-strong Brexit negotiation subcommittee by five pro-Europeans: Mr Hammond; first secretary Damian Green; home secretary Amber Rudd; business secretary Greg Clark; and defence secretary Gavin Williamson.
But the four pro-Leave ministers — foreign secretary Mr Johnson; Brexit secretary David Davis; environment secretary Michael Gove; and trade secretary Liam Fox — have also indicated they would support a higher exit payment, with strings attached.
“Everyone wants to move on to break the deadlock and move on to phase two of the talks,” said one ally of the prime minister.
Mr Davis, who is leading talks in Brussels, is insisting that Mrs May keeps some money in reserve to use as a bargaining chip when Britain negotiates a final trade deal with the EU next year, a view shared by Mr Johnson.
However, the foreign secretary’s allies denied suggestions he had drawn a “red line” on money or that he would fight to stop Mrs May handing over more than the €20bn she has already offered to cover transition payments in 2019 and 2020.
“Boris’s point is that if we are handing over increasing amounts of taxpayer’s money, we should have a better idea of what we are getting in return,” said one ally. Both Mr Gove and Mr Fox have taken a nuanced stance on the exit bill.
Mrs May is expected to give more details of her willingness to honour Britain’s share of the EU’s outstanding but unpaid commitments. She will not give a figure, but — according to how it is calculated — it could add between €20bn and €30bn to the bill. Pensions and other liabilities could add another €10bn.
All four Eurosceptic ministers are saving their political capital for the fight over Britain’s future relationship with the EU and are pressing Mrs May to resolve the government’s policy as soon as possible.
Although the discussion will be deeply divisive, Mr Hammond also believes Mrs May should formulate Britain’s position soon, rather than let the EU set the terms of a deal when it draws up its own guidelines for a future trade relationship.
The EU is expected to say that unless Britain accepts all the rules of the single market — a Norway-style relationship that would include free movement — it would have to accept a Canada-style free trade deal, focused mainly on goods, not services.
In a leaked memo to Mrs May obtained by the Mail on Sunday, Mr Johnson and Mr Gove said the prime minister should negotiate a trade deal that allowed Britain “a wide degree of regulatory freedom”.
Mr Hammond is among those who wants to keep Britain as close as possible to the single market and customs union; the more the UK diverges from European regulatory standards, the less market access it is likely to enjoy.