Britain will still be in EU in 5 years’ time, says Austrian minister
Britain will still be a member of the EU in five years, Austria’s finance minister has predicted, arguing the economic volatility unleashed by the Brexit vote will prompt a rethink by the country.
Hans Jörg Schelling told Germany’s Handelsblatt newspaper that the reaction of financial markets and business since the June 23 referendum result had been a “salutary shock” for the UK.
The longer the uncertainty lasted, the greater would be the damage for the rest of Europe, the Austrian finance minister warned. But the impact would be “very much greater” in Britain.
In five years' time, “there will still be 28 member countries [in the EU],” Mr Schelling said in an interview published late on Monday. “Great Britain will remain a member in the future.”
Mr Schelling’s prediction that a damaging setback to European integration could yet be averted, with Britain delaying indefinitely the formal steps necessary to initiate an exit from the EU, is not new. But he is the highest-profile official to voice it publicly.
Mr Schelling also raised the possibility of a “part Brexit” in which only England would leave the EU, with Scotland remaining in the bloc.
EU leaders are also focused on the fallout from the British vote, with many — including French president François Hollande — now convinced that the resulting financial and political turmoil will dissuade other EU members from following in the UK’s footsteps.
Austrian voters are among the most pro-EU on the continent. But the political debate in the country has taken on a more EU critical tone with the rise in strength of its rightwing national Freedom Party, which was founded by former Nazis in the 1950s.
Last week, Austria’s constitution court ordered a re-run of May’s contentious presidential election in which the Freedom party candidate came close to becoming the country’s head of state. The repeat election is expected to take place in September.
Mr Schelling is a leading politician in Austria’s centre-right People’s party, which governs in a “grand coalition” with the centre-left Social Democrats. Both mainstream parties have seen popular support tumbling this year as voters have expressed dissatisfaction with Austria’s weak economic performance — and the EU’s handling of the continent’s migration crisis.
In his Handelsblatt interview, Mr Schelling said the “Brexit vote” should be a “wake-up call for the whole of Europe”. Voters, he warned were distressed that the EU appeared focused on subjects such as “lightbulbs and vacuum cleaners”.
In future, the European Commission should work harder on more important themes, including migration. “The failure on the refugee problem badly knocked people’s trust in Europe,” he said.
The Austrian finance minister also called for a “fundamental discussion” on the future role of EU institutions. “Luckily, Great Britain does not belong to the eurozone,” Mr Schelling said. “A possible Brexit would have been a catastrophe for the euro.”
The EU’s difficulties meant the bloc was unlikely to expand further in the foreseeable future but Mr Schelling hoped that “more people will recognise that Europe is not only a large project for peace but is also a large economic project. Only when we stand together can we secure our prosperity in a competitive world.”