Airlines draw up contingency plans over jet fuel shortage fears
War in the Middle East is disrupting supplies and driving up prices
Airlines are drawing up contingency plans to deal with potential jet fuel shortages, which they fear could take hold within weeks as war in the Middle East threatens supplies and drives up prices.
Aviation executives said they were struggling to get assurances about the availability of fuel beyond the next month.
“We’re putting in plans today to draw up scenarios on how we would deal with the shortage of fuel,” said Ben Smith, chief executive of Air France-KLM. This includes cutting services to parts of Asia in case refuelling for the return journey to Europe becomes more difficult.
“South-east Asia is much more dependent on fuel coming over the Gulf than Europe is,” Smith told the FT. “We can get fuel out of Europe, but when we go to [a] south-east Asian city we’re not going to be able to fly the plane back . . . If there’s no fuel, you can’t fly.”
EasyJet boss Kenton Jarvis said fuel suppliers will not give guidance on availability beyond the next month.
Suppliers had reassured the airline they have fuel for the next three weeks, he said. “But no one’s really telling us ‘we have no immediate issues in six weeks’, because they’re not prepared to say that,” he added.
Some energy traders believe jet fuel shortages are inevitable in parts of the world.
They said that while some countries, including in Europe, have healthy reserves, planes still need to refuel at their destinations and cannot carry enough for return trips.
Other fuels facing shortages include marine fuel and LPG.
The immediate risk is mitigated because airports typically have significant stocks.
Hari Marar, chief executive of India’s Bangalore International Airport, said it has fuel for about 25 days on site or nearby. Shortages are not “an immediate concern,” he said. “Price is a different matter and that will definitely impact our airline partners.”
However, Vietnam has already warned of the possibility that flights from the country will have to be limited.
“This is a bigger supply issue than we’ve seen before,” said Willie Walsh, the former British Airways CEO who now runs industry group Iata.
Several airport executives told the FT this week that they face shortages of fuel that may force them to limit flights in the coming weeks.
“In the short term, the big issue is not so much the fuel prices as whether there is going to be enough,” said Justin Erbacci, head of global airports industry group ACI World. “Everybody’s worried right now about potential availability.”
Jet fuel prices have doubled since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran last month. North-west European prices hit an all-time high on Wednesday, closing at $1,730 a tonne, beating a record set on Monday to reach roughly double prewar levels, according to pricing agency Argus Media.
Price rises have left some airlines, including US carriers such as United, Delta and American Airlines, with billions in extra costs because they do not have long-term hedging. Scandinavian airline SAS, which is not hedged, this week said it would cancel around 1,000 flights because of rising fuel prices.
Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has halted supplies from Kuwait, the world’s second-largest jet fuel exporter, which accounted for 15 per cent of global seaborne jet fuel exports in 2025, according to energy data company Vortexa.
Analysts said Europe and Australia were likely to be hit harder than other markets because of limited domestic refining capacity. Europe has shut much of its refining capacity in recent years and now sources about 40 per cent of its jet fuel through the Strait, while Australia depends heavily on refineries in China and Singapore.
Suppliers in Asia are also tightening exports of jet fuel and other refined products. China ordered a halt to refined fuel exports last week, while South Korea, another key supplier, imposed a cap on refined product exports.
Not everyone in the industry is concerned about shortages. Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary said his airline, which only serves Europe, does not expect any shortages in the next two months under current conditions.