A second Brexit poll is a bigger risk than leaving
Those campaigning for a People’s Vote should be careful what they wish for
Readers may remember the now diminished internet phenomenon of Second Life, a virtual world in which people could live the lives they did not currently have. They could create exciting and unrealistically desirable avatars, hoard cryptocurrency, and build new societies. It turned out to be less transformative, with many using it for gambling and virtual sex with other exciting and unrealistic avatars.
In the increasingly unreal sphere of British politics we have Second Referendum: a virtual world in which voters get to act out the lives they do not have. In Second Referendum a grateful nation is given the chance to rethink its first vote on leaving the EU and overturns its mistake by an exciting and unrealistic margin. The pound rises, investment floods in, Emmanuel Macron pats the UK on the back for having the good sense to see things his way. National unity is restored, once angry Brexit backers return to their lives grateful to hand decisions back to the political professionals and thankful to be spared the consequences of their foolishness.
The second referendum is no longer a digital dream. It is a distinct possibility; not yet probable, but certainly possible. Labour’s recent conference moved it closer. If all other options fail, MPs may back the so-called — and excellently branded — People’s Vote. Many arguments are made for it. Voters did not know the terms on which we would leave, lies were told, younger voters were denied a say. But the truth is that its advocates do not believe in a new vote; just in a new answer. It is entirely a device to stop Brexit.
It is an irony that should another vote happen, it will be due to the intransigence of Leavers. Instead of recognising the narrowness of their win and seeking to unify the nation, they pursued the most hardline of Brexits. More generosity and the deal would already be sealed.
There are significant logistical obstacles. What would the question be? Are there two or three options with a transferable vote? How long would it take? But, these are mere details compared with — and I write this as a Remain voter — more important political objections.
The only real justifications for a second vote are a massive shift in public opinion or an unpredictable material change in circumstances. Neither has occurred. Opinion polls show a small but clear lead for Remain voters, which suggests some Leavers have changed their minds but also factors in the two years’ worth of young voters (who skew Remain by seven to one) now eligible to vote. In truth, the country is still more or less split down the middle. A close win for Remain will settle nothing. And for all the Remainer confidence — and belief in an energised youth vote — there is no guarantee they would win. Voters rarely take well to being told to try again because they got it wrong. (Another plebiscite also kills the main objection to another Scottish independence vote.)
Some argue about Leave’s tactics, but the conspiracy theories are overhyped. Some fine investigative journalism has exposed the Leave behaviour but it has not, and cannot, prove it was decisive. Dishonest campaigning was not invented by Vote Leave and one cannot rerun a vote because the other side’s ads were more effective.
But most fundamental is the damage it will do to democracy. If Remain were to nick it back, where do the former 52 per cent turn next? The phenomena of populism cannot be wished away and one of its causes was the sense of a political class that does not listen. It is a lesson EU leaders are still failing to learn. Leavers will view a second referendum as a plot by the political class to frustrate their decision. They will not be wrong.
If the previous campaign was ugly and divisive, imagine the next: a full assault on every institution of political stability with added venom for foreigners. From there a descent into pure populism is a small step and the next group of leaders will be less loveable than Nigel Farage.
For all this, Remainers are uniting in a way that Brexiters are not. Parliamentary paralysis may leave another referendum the only option and many Remainers are thus invested in maintaining deadlock.
A better alternative even at this stage would be for Remainers to work together to thwart the hardliners and deliver the most manageable deal in line with the 2016 vote. Customs union, single market, Theresa May’s Chequers plan — all are sub-optimal, but none are the worst outcome. This requires Remainers to accept that they lost and the second vote campaign shows them unready to do so.
Such a vote may halt Brexit, but the price will be higher than many assume. The virtual nirvana of Second Life had unpleasant unexpected consequences. Second Ref may be the same.