How would the stock exchanges as respond to an election victory of SYRIZA, a defeat? The most likely scenario gives us hope.
Plunge us back the Greeks fully back in the worst times of the euro crisis?This concern have some today. For the evening will be decided whether the euro-critical Syriza won the parliamentary elections and the government will provide. It wants to give a haircut and also a large part of the reforms of recent years reversed. This would cause a stir in the stock markets.
A course fireworks in Europe and Athens, however, would trigger the electoral victory of the previous government Samaras. Because it supports the reforms and austerity. But all the polls say otherwise: SYRIZA wins.
Open is whether it is enough for an absolute majority. If so, the stock market would react negatively. Because then stand on difficult negotiations with the Europeans of the new government - would show little willingness to compromise - strengthened by the high electoral victory. Since even the end of February expires, the previous utility could bring Greece's financial problems quickly in lengthy negotiations beyond that date.
Worse for the exchanges would be there only an unclear election that produces no new government and thereby makes repeated elections but necessary in a few months. This uncertainty dislike the financial markets.
The most likely scenario is one that makes some hope: the victory of SYRIZA can not be prevented. But the leftists need a coalition partner to moderates. Then perhaps the maturities on Greek bonds would be extended and lowered interest rates again. And some relief in the reform requirements granted. But above all, Greece would remain in the euro. For the want all those responsible - in Europe and Athens.