Why revisit the ORANGE-BOUYGUES case now?
Because :
* Vivendi has just executed an unexpected (partial – c29% stake) move for Mediaset
* The identity of the future President of France will be unveiled in less than 4 months
* Orange’s lockup on its 4% stake in BT Group will lapse shortly
In a nutshell
* 2 recent tangible initiatives from Vivendi challenge the theory, which surfaced in early- December, that Vivendi and Orange might manage to finalize a capitalistic deal regarding Canal :
- its accelerated building of a 28.8% stake in Mediaset
- its nomination of the high-profile Chief Convergence Officer Amos Genish.
* The possible election of Mr Fillon as the next French President may revive anticipation
of :
- a new reopening of negotiations between Orange and Bouygues
- an upcoming placing of a public stake in ORA.
* As a key reminder, the Bouygues stock is the vehicle that last year:
- benefitted the most from the announcement of negotiations
- suffered the most for their interruption.