A rebalance in oil markets is on its way, but oil markets will likely remain volatile. The challenge is to find the balance; instead of just focusing on the full field NPV, thereby taking a long term view, it is critical that companies balance this longer term view with a stronger focus on short term cash flow and returns. The Major' share of long duration volumes is rising, therefore capital intensity is falling, but managing/sustaining businesses may thus require a greater portion of short-cycle/flexible assets going forward. In light of this backdrop, we d/g Total to N (limited upside to its shares), while we u/g BP to OP (from N) on valuation grounds.