GLOBAL EQUITY STRATEGY: This is a follow up to our piece, Brexit scenario: what would happen next? Politics: We see a 30% (and rising) risk of 'Brexit lite'; a new Prime Minister may also be paired with a Chancellor less focused on austerity; we put a very low probability on a change in government before 2020. There is a high risk of another Scottish independence referendum. Growth: UK lead indicators are already consistent with a recession and will likely now worsen. Currencies and rates: Into a 'full Brexit', we think GBPUSD falls to sub-1.30. We take our S&P 500 yearend target down to 2,000 and FTSE 100 to 6,200. We reduce Continental Europe to a marginal OW. We stay overweight of GEM.