EUROPEAN STEEL SUBSECTORS: We publish our forecasts for the calendar Q2 earnings season, along with thoughts on stocks and sectors and the longer-term outlook. The key new risk is the impact of the Brexit vote on the global economy. As we noted at the time, on the positive side, global destocking in carbon steel has happened and is over and spot steel prices are way above consensus forecasts, so the impact on forecasts and equities may be limited if prices do dip. We see the US recovery as more resilient than Europe given the large destock that happened and visibly low inventory in the US and greater immediate risks to Europe. We upgrade Acerinox to OP and downgrade Aperam to N on relative earnings momentum.