Burberry kicks off earnings season on 13 July. We f’cast org growth for the luxury sector to be the slowest we have seen in the last 7 yrs. 1) comps are tougher than in previous quarters, mainly in Europe and Japan where tourism spending was strong in 2Q15. 2) geopolitical uncertainties and stock market volatility continued to impact the 'feel good factor'. 3) the renminbi depreciation against the euro and the yen has reduced tourism spending as regional price gaps got narrower. We cut earnings estimates for most of our coverage and reduce our target prices for LVMH, Tod's and Hugo Boss. We remain negative on the luxury sector.