We forecast significant changes to the global automotive landscape over the coming years driven by emissions targets, the VW debacle and the lower oil price. We assess the impact of these changes on the entire auto supply chain to screen for companies that appear best positioned. We identify companies that look best positioned to capture above-market growth regardless of the industry outcome and assess where we believe the market has not fairly valued this opportunity. We have upgraded JMAT (O/P (from N), and maintain O/P on Umicore, Schaeffler and Victrex.
Stock calls: We flex our model to run base case, conservative and progressive market scenarios. We identify companies that look best positioned to capture above-market growth regardless of the industry outcome and assess where we believe the market has not fairly valued this opportunity.
We have upgraded JMAT (O/P (from N), TP £31), and maintain O/P on UMI (TP €50 from €42, European Focus List stock), BYD (TP HK$80), Hyundai Mobis (TP KRW300,000), Delphi (TP $88), Magna (TP $50), Schaeffler (TP €15.3), Victrex (TP £20), and Tesla (TP $280, Global nd US Focus List stock). We maintain U/P on Ford (TP$13).