(CITI) Brazil, Kurdistan, East Africa Upstream Key in 2014

See attached note page 68

Sustainable growth is key theme, with “low-cost asset positions” on cost curve; 3 regions fit that criterion, Citigroup says in 2014 strategy note.
  • “Key longs” are BG, Afren, Africa Oil, Technip; “key avoids” are Eni, OMV, Neste, CGG
  • Says RoE compression for “big oil” continues; question is if incentives in place for management to make changes; Citi worries cos. “will remain in denial”
    • Sees better value in E&P cos., with NAVs discounting $75/bbl Brent vs $90/bbl for European integrateds
  • Oil service cos. positioned around growth; market seems to “deeply distrust” sector on “terrible” execution in 2013
    • Project execution issues like Brazil timetables, politics like Libya situation are 2 risks that market tends toward