Rafale: Qatar could sign Monday
The announcement of exclusive negotiations is considered plausible. The opportunity for Dassault to finally add a client to export the table hunting his plane.
A force delays and disappointments, the Areopagus defense has learned not ignite every rumor export order for the Rafale. Too disappointed hopes, too true-false ads, too many twists last minute. Nevertheless: the visit to Paris of the young Emir of Qatar Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani (34), received this evening by François Hollande for an interview and a formal dinner from 19 hours, strongly resembles a golden opportunity to finally add a client to export table French fighter aircraft. The possibility of choosing the Rafale ad for a 36 or 72 aircraft, is mentioned by several sources interviewed by Challenges, which however remain extremely cautious. "It stirs a lot with a lot of meetings on the sidelines of Eurosatory, confirms a manufacturer. But the calendar is the sole responsibility of the Emir."
The moment the Rafale would finally come? "We are confident that the record result," a French diplomatic source indicated Friday AFP and Reuters, without specifying a date. The geopolitical context appears, in fact, the wearer. "The planets are aligned for a quick official announcement ensures Nabil Ennasri, author of The Riddle of Qatar (ed. Armand Colin) and Qatar (ed. de Boeck). Franco-Qatari relations are excellent, Qatar has strong will no longer be a military dwarf in the region, he is anxious not to be 100% dependent on the U.S., and most importantly, he has the means to achieve its ambitions. " An announcement of the Emir of Qatar "give the amplitude at his post," Judge Nabil Ennasri, stressing that the visit of the Emir Tamim comes a year almost to the day after he came to power.
The first choice of the Qatari army
Technically, in any case, the mass seems proper. After three phases of testing very advanced, the Air Force Qatari assured the French camp that the Rafale was clearly his first choice, say two sources close to the negotiations. "The chosen version would be very close to the latest standard of the device, the F3R version, with active antenna radar [in range and increased reliability, Ed]," says a close case. The Eurofighter Typhoon? Qatar prefer him flying French, more complete. The emirate also seems reluctant to acquire the same devices that rival Saudi Arabia, which has fighter Typhoon and F-15. The F-35 Lockheed Martin? For rather obscure reasons, the United States has not responded to the invitation to tender issued by the emirate last August.
The Rafale appears as the clear favorite. "Combat proven" (combat proven) in Afghanistan, Libya and Mali, it also has close military relations between France and Qatar: Fleet Fighter emirate consists of 12 Mirage 2000-5. L'Harmattan operation in Libya in 2011 saw multiple joint patrols of French and Qatari units, both air forces with a long tradition of collaboration. The Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian also created an excellent context of negotiations with the Qatari authorities, multiplying travel to Doha since the beginning of the year. Should we therefore expect an announcement this evening? "Frankly, I do not believe it," says one industry, a bit superstitious. Before completing a grinning: "... but I could be wrong, eh."
Visit to London just after France
Indeed, caution should be exercised. First, a possible announcement does not relate to a definitive agreement, but rather an entry into exclusive negotiations with the "team Rafale" (Dassault, Thales, Safran). Admittedly, these last very probably much shorter than negotiations in India, started in January 2012, because the version of the Rafale selected by Qatar would be very close to that of the French air force. The component technology transfer is also much less complex, the Qatar requiring no assembly line in place as in India. But it would still transform the test in the coming months.
Another reason for caution industrial is that Amir is determined not to let it dictate no schedule. The young officer must certainly give pledges its air force, which must confirm the scaling (12 Mirage 2000-5 to 72 devices). But his visit to the United Kingdom, which fiercely defends the Eurofighter, just after France, is clearly not the ideal agenda for an ad Rafale tonight. An announcement of the Emir on the French hunter would have more weight.