Lagardère: the division of the empire
SERIES # 5 - Where the scenarios multiply: takeover bid on Lagardère? Split? It is still too early for the big cats Vincent Bolloré and Bernard Arnault to swallow their ego.
The sequence alone describes the tension around Lagardère's capital. On September 25, Financière Agache, the family holding company of Bernard Arnault, announced, via a press release from the Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF), that it had acquired a 5.5% stake in Lagardère. Small wind of turmoil on the markets: Bernard Arnault had already spent 80 million euros, in May, for 26% of the personal holding of Arnaud Lagardère, holder of 7% of the Lagardère group. This two-level injection of capital could only disturb the company's main shareholders, starting with Vivendi. Five days later, the media and entertainment company majority owned by Vincent Bolloré announced that it had crossed the threshold of 25% of Lagardère's capital and held 26.7%.
The capitalist war has indeed started, even if it is impossible to know the real intentions of the belligerents as to the future of this group of more than 7 billion euros in turnover, present in the edition with Hachette, the media and travel retail (station and airport shops). All scenarios are possible.
By inflating his participation, Vincent Bolloré wanted to send a clear signal to the opposing camp: the position of Bernard Arnault, as central as it is, is far from being locked. For all intents and purposes, the owner of Vivendi made a point of informing the AMF on October 2 that he was in a position to acquire the 20% of the Amber Capital fund with which he entered into a shareholders' agreement, on August 10, including a reciprocal right of first refusal on their holdings in Lagardère. And that the prospect of a takeover bid for the entire capital, which would be imposed on him if he crossed the 30% threshold, did not frighten him. "Vivendi has a credit line of 10 billion euros," recalls a close friend of the Breton businessman. A war chest partly constituted at the beginning of this year, during the transfer of 10% of the capital of Universal Music Group to the Chinese Tencent. “We reserve all the possibilities and all the options, including the purchase of Amber and the takeover bid,” slips a Vivendi executive.
Amber and Qatar's game
A takeover bid? Arnaud Lagardère rejects the hypothesis. With Vincent Bolloré, they talk to each other from time to time. "He is the largest shareholder of Vivendi, owner of Editis and therefore our competitor in the book," he recalls. It would destroy a lot of value. The scenario cannot however be excluded. The Amber Capital fund is not intended to retain its holdings and does not hide it. He acquired them around 20 euros per share and would therefore make a nice capital gain, close to 200 million euros, over the 28 euros reached on October 7. By combining the holdings of Amber (20%) and those of Vivendi (26.7%), Bolloré would approach the majority of the shares. If he passed this 50% bar, he would de facto deprive Arnaud Lagardère of his majority on the supervisory board, causing a strategic and organizational blockage at the group level.
Still in a hostile hypothesis, will Vincent Bolloré count on a second ally in this capitalistic fight? The sovereign wealth fund of Qatar, holder of 13% of the capital and 20% of the voting rights. Rarely, on September 22, the Qatari fund publicly communicated believing it "legitimate for all shareholders to be fairly represented on the supervisory board", thus proving Amber and Vivendi right. In May 2017, when he had just increased his participation, he had already politely expressed the idea of being represented. In vain.
The gesture of annoyance of the faithful and silent ally of Lagardère makes the business of Vincent Bolloré. On the evening of September 22, he announced to his relatives "good news", like a divine surprise. Present in the capital since 2006, Qatar has been dissatisfied with the return on its investment several times over the past three years. Member of the supervisory board since February, Nicolas Sarkozy, close to the Emir, convinced him to maintain his support for the heir Lagardère, during the last general meeting of the group in May 2020. But these old agreements no longer hold . Former reference shareholder of the group, today surpassed by Vivendi and the Amber fund, Qatar could ring the hour of retirement.
"The egos of two wild animals"
In private, neither party is engaging in belligerent comments. "The battle against Lagardère will not happen," even assures a Vivendi executive. Vincent Bolloré respects Bernard Arnault too much. Arnaud Lagardère confirms: "I don't think the two want to compete." In Vincent Bolloré's mind, the most reasonable solution