Please find attached an updated version of BTG Pactual’s 2014 Brazilian Presidential Elections Tracker. The latest Datafolha showed President Rousseff continuing to gain some ground compared to the last Datafolha poll (as opposed to the last IBOPE poll, which showed her recovery losing a bit of momentum). In the first round, President Rousseff would have 37% of voting intentions (vs. 36% in the previous Datafolha poll), followed by Ms. Silva with 30% (down from 33%) and Mr. Neves with 17% (up from 15%). “Blank/Null/Undecided” remained stable at 13%.
In a second round simulation, Ms. Silva and Ms. Rousseff are statistically tied at 46% x 44% but the gap narrowed further to 2% (from 4% in the last Datafolha), as opposed to the last IBOPE poll, which showed a slight widening of Ms. Silva’s lead vs. President Rousseff. “Blank/Null/Undecided” votes remained stable at 10%. Against Mr. Neves, President Rousseff would beat him by 49% x 39%, and their gap narrowed slightly to a 10% lead (vs. a 11% gap in the previous poll).
Positive ratings for the government inched up to 37% (vs. 36% in the last Datafolha poll). As for rejection rates, President Rousseff’s remained the highest (stable at 33%), while Mr Neves’ decreased to 21% (from 23%), and Ms. Silva’s rose to 22%, up from 18% before. In other words, Ms. Silva’s rejection rate exceed Mr. Neves’ for the first time.
At this point, there are 5 new polls registered at the electoral court: i) Vox Populi, collecting 2,000 interviews from 20/09-21/09, is expected to be published next Monday (22/09); ii) MDA, collecting 2,002 interviews from 20/09-21/09, is expected to be published next Tuesday (23/9); iii) IBOPE, collecting 3,010 interviews from 18/09-23/09, is expected to be published next Tuesday (23/9); iv)Vox Populi, collecting 2,000 interviews from 23/09-24/09, is expected to be published next Wednesday (24/9) and v) Sensus, collecting 2,000 interviews from 21/09-26/09, is expected to be published next Friday (26/9).