* The most important week of the year?
Next week the potential sovereign QE announcement (22 January) at the ECB meeting, and Greek elections (25 January) are likely to be two of the most important events of the year.
* Euro area: QE, at last
We expect the ECB to announce government bond buying of between EUR 500 and EUR 700bn over 18 months. The crucial issue is whether the ECB will manage to create an “open ended” feel to its program.
* UK: A slippery start to 2015
December CPI inflation was weaker than expected, at 0.5% yoy. Given the continued fall in oil prices, we now see it reaching a trough in February at 0.1%.
* Peripheral watch: Greece: conditions for a positive outcome
We discuss the main conditions that we think any new Greek government will have to meet in order to avoid tail risks. We argue that there is room to improve Greece's adjustment program, but that this will depend to a large extent on the political will to implement key reforms.
Week ahead calendar - see attached