(BofA-ML) The Flow Show : September paralysis: tiny inflows to both equity & bon

* September paralysis: tiny inflows to both equity & bond funds this week
* EM & IG the exceptions: both IG bond funds & EM equity funds saw strong weekly inflows
* Take profits in EM: despite strong inflows EEM down 350bps peak-to-trough in past week - our EM Flow Trading Rule still says “sell”(Chart 1)
* Quality-on in bonds: outflows from HY bond funds, inflows to IG bond funds becoming a well-established pattern

>>> Asset class flows
* Equities: tiny $41mn inflows (smallest in 5 weeks) (masks divergence between $2.7bn into ETF’s and $2.6bn out of long-only funds)
* Bonds: small $0.4bn inflows (weakest in 5 weeks) (Table 1)
* Precious Metals: 3 straight weeks of outflows (albeit small $89mn)

>>> Equity flows
* EM: $3.4bn inflows (14 straight weeks) (Global EM and Asia xJ funds responsible for bulk of inflows); our EM Flow Trading Rule still says “sell” and we continue to recommend profit-taking short-term
* Europe: $1.1bn outflows (outflows in 9 out of past 10 weeks) (Table 2)
* US: $3.0bn outflows
* Japan: $0.3bn outflows

>>> FICC flows
* 38 straight weeks of inflows to IG bond funds ($3.3bn)
* $2.0bn outflows from HY bond funds (largest in 4 weeks) (Chart 2)
* $1.3bn outflows from Govt/Tsy funds (3 straight weeks)
* Tiny ($43mn) outflows from EM debt funds
* 9 straight weeks of outflows from floating-rate debt ($0.4bn)
* 8 straight weeks of inflows to muni funds ($0.6bn)