(BofA-ML) The Flow Show : Paranoia driving flows to EM


* Inflows: All asset classes see weekly inflows: Equities $5.5bn, Bonds $3.6bn, Commodities $1.0bn
* Quality: In Fixed Income theme is quality: big $3.2bn inflows to Investment Grade, no inflows to High Yield
* Value: In Equities persistent flows to cheap EM (Chart 2), faltering flows to less cheap Europe, outflows from pricey US
* Inflation: Hedges for inflation in demand: largest weekly inflow to precious metals funds since Sep’12; first inflows to floating-rate debt in 13 weeks; another week of inflows to TIPS
* Sentiment: BofAML Bull & Bear Index stays at 7.4 (Chart 1); breach of 8.0 “sell” signal level next week requires July FMS cash levels to fall to 3.5% on Tuesday, and stronger EM debt & equity fund inflows

>>> Asset class flows
* Equities: $5.5bn inflows (almost all via ETF’s – SPY, QQQ, EEM)
* Bonds: $3.6bn inflows (inflows in 17 out of past 18 weeks) (Table 1)
* Precious metals: $1.0bn inflows (largest since Sep’12)

>>> Equity flows
* 5 straight weeks of inflows to EM equities ($1.4bn) vs tiny $5mn outflows from
* EU equities (outflows in 2 out of past 3 weeks), i.e. persistent flows to cheap EM, faltering flows to less cheap Europe
* US: $0.6bn inflows; Japan: $0.7bn inflows

>>> FICC flows
* 29 straight weeks of inflows to IG bond funds ($3.2bn – responsible for lion’s share of fixed income inflows this week)
* HY bond funds see no inflows this week
* First floating-rate debt inflows in 13 weeks (albeit modest $90mn)
* 3 straight weeks of inflows to TIPS ($0.3bn)
* 15 straight weeks of inflows to EM debt funds ($0.1bn)
* Largest weekly outflows from Muni bond funds YTD ($0.7bn)