--> outflows from equities ($9.2bn) & commodities ($0.2bn) vs inflows to bonds ($2.6bn) & money-markets ($12.2bn)
--> 36 straight weeks of muni inflows; 16 straight weeks of European equity outflows; 12 straight weeks of IG bond inflows
--> Global Flow Trading Rule v close to contrarian “buy” signal driven by significant redemptions from equity & HY funds past 4 weeks (outflow = 0.9% AUM; outflow of 1.0% required for buy signal). Last “buy” signal = late-Jan when bearish flows coincided with bad equity market breadth (link) & Bull & Bear Index in “fear” territory…markets bounced; today B&B Index more neutral (4.0) but flows & high FMS cash levels (5.5%) threaten “bear capitulation” upside for risk assets
- Equities: $9.2bn outflows (7 straight weeks) (note $11.1bn mutual fund outflows partially offset by $1.9bn ETF inflows)
- Bonds: $2.6bn inflows (inflows in 12 of past 13 weeks)
- Precious metals: tiny $32mn outflows (only the second week of outflows in 20 weeks)
- Money-markets: $12.2bn inflows
>>> Equity Flows
- Japan: $0.9bn outflows (first outflows in 3 weeks)
- Europe: $3.3bn outflows (16 straight weeks)
- EM: $2.0bn outflows (4 straight weeks)
- US: $1.1bn outflows (outflows in 6 of past 7 weeks)
- By sector, first outflows from REITs in 14 weeks ($0.2bn); largest financials inflows in 5 months ($0.5bn); 6 straight weeks of tech outflows ($0.4bn)
>>> Fixed Income Flows
- First inflows to Govt/Tsy funds in 14 weeks ($0.6bn)
- Largest outflows from HY bond funds in 15 weeks ($2.1bn)
- Largest outflows from EM debt funds in 14 weeks ($0.3bn)
- $2.5bn inflows to IG bond funds (12 straight weeks)
- $1.2bn inflows to Munis (36 straight weeks)
- Inflows to TIPS funds in 14 of past 15 weeks ($0.3bn)