* Stampede out of equity ETF’s this week (SPY, EEM, XLF, XLI); $12.3bn redemptions are largest since Jul’12.
* Largest EM equity fund outflows since Aug’11 ($6.4bn); $15bn outflows over next 2-3 weeks triggers contrarian “buy” signal from our EM Flow Trading Rule
* Largest EM debt fund outflows since Jun’13 ($2.7bn); selling concentrated in LDM (local debt markets).
* EM debt & equity funds see combined outflows of $9.1bn; magnitude almost rivals outflows during Taper (May’13), Debt Ceiling (Aug’11) & Lehman (Sep’08)
** Asset Class Flows
- Equities: $10.4bn outflows; note divergence between $12bn out of ETF’s and $2bn into long-only funds
- Bonds: modest $1.9bn outflows (Table 1)
- Commodities: largest outflows in 5 weeks ($1.3bn)
** Equity Flows
- $6.4bn outflows from EM equity funds (largest since Aug’11) (14 straight weeks of outflows = tied for longest outflow streak on record – Table 3)
- 4-week outflows from EM equities = 1.4% of AUM; another $15bn outflows over next 2-3 weeks would triggercontrarian “buy” signal from our EM Flow Trading Rule (3.0% is threshold)
- $9.7bn outflows from US equity funds (largest since Oct’13, but all via ETF’s)
- Business as usual for Europe (31 straight weeks of inflows) and Japan (6 straight weeks of inflows)
** Fixed Income Flows
- Largest weekly outflows from EM debt funds since Jun’13 ($2.7bn); 18 straight weeks and outflows concentrated in LDM
- Outflows from EM debt & equity funds over past 3 months are a substantial $42bn or 4% of AUM (Chart 3)
- First outflows in 6 weeks from HY bond funds ($0.8bn)
- 37 straight weeks of outflows from MBS
- 84 straight weeks of inflows to floating-rate debt (Table 2)
- 2nd straight week of Muni inflows following 4 months of redemptions
- IG bond funds see 6th straight week of inflows