The trend is your friend (until it points to a 2017 recession)
Our economists do not expect a recession in the coming year, forecasting slow and
steady growth in the US. But over seven years and more than 270% into this bull market,
one wonders how much longer this cycle can last. We have not yet found a model that
accurately forecast recessions, and even if we did, not all recessions result in bear
markets. But in examining some of some of our favorite indicators’ recent trends, we did
find evidence for an imminent recession. While the range of signals is wide, in aggregate
they do suggest that, if data were to continue to weaken in line with the recent pace,
history would point to a recession in the second half of 2017. Admittedly, other macro
indicators, such as consumer confidence and initial jobless claims, still point to healthy
growth. But historically, equity returns have been strongest prior to the peak in building
permit issuance growth (2012 in this cycle) and the probability of a bear market has
been high when the yield curve was inverted (not until 2018 based on the trend).
Who needs euphoria when you have complacency?
One ingredient seemingly missing from this bull market has been investor euphoria. Wall
Street sentiment is more bearish on stocks now than it was during the Financial Crisis, and
fund managers continue to sit on high cash levels. However, actual holdings data suggest
that positioning may not be so defensive. Large cap active managers have the highest
cyclical exposure since 2012 and their overall beta exposure is near cycle highs. Meanwhile,
equity funds (mostly passive) have seen over $100bn more inflows over the last five years
than during the same period ahead of the 2007 market peak. We also estimate that US
household equity exposure has risen to levels similar to where markets peaked in 2007. With
the stock market having returned roughly three times as much as bonds this cycle, much of
the increase in households’ equity allocation was likely the result of outperformance rather
than a big shift in preference for stocks. But whether deliberately or unwittingly, investors
have 50% more equity exposure than the 60-year average.
Selling too early at the end of a bull market can be painful
Even if we are in the later stages of this bull market, and despite our concerns regarding a
near-term market correction, we caution long-term oriented investors against reducing their
equity exposure too much. History would suggest that unless you can pinpoint the peaks and
troughs of the market to within 12-month timeframes, you would have been better off
staying invested. Some of the best returns often come at the end of bull markets, and these
gains are usually enough to offset the subsequent losses. So while today’s elevated
valuations suggest that we may have pulled forward part of the market’s future returns, our
3500 S&P 500 target for the year 2025 suggests that investors can still achieve mid-single
digit annual returns from stocks in the coming decade.
Buy Quality for the near term and the long term
But what types of equities you own is important, and we continue to recommend that
investors take advantage of the low quality rally to rotate into higher quality companies
with solid balance sheets. Not only are high quality stocks cheap, underowned and one
of the best hedges against rising volatility, but high quality stocks have never had
negative returns over any 10-year period in our history back to 1986 — even excluding
dividends (which have accounted for over 30% of the S&P 500’s total returns over the
last decade). History suggests that while high quality stocks often lag in late bull market
rallies, they usually make up for it when the cycle rolls over.