Lululemon Traders Say Namaste to Takeover Speculation: Options
2014-07-24 14:28:25.729 GMT
(For an Options column news alert: SALT OMA.)
By Jacob Barach and Callie Bost
July 24 (Bloomberg) -- Speculation that Lululemon Athletica
Inc.’s founder wants to sell the yoga-gear retailer has options
traders stretching toward calls to buy the shares.
Bullish one-month wagers on Lululemon cost the most on
record relative to bearish bets, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg. Traders own about the most calls relative to puts on
the stock in six months, the data show, with one of the most-
held contracts betting on a 20 percent jump by tomorrow.
Founder Dennis “Chip” Wilson has opposed the direction of
the current board and sought to regain greater control of the
company. Traders are betting Wilson’s efforts could prove
fruitful after about $3 billion was wiped from Lululemon’s
market value this year, making it more attractive to suitors.
“At these levels the valuation is quite compelling,” Pam
Quintiliano, a New York-based retail analyst for Suntrust
Robinson Humphrey Inc., said in a phone interview July 8. “It’s
come down dramatically from where it’s been historically. There
is a frenzy with takeover rumors.”
While Wilson stepped down as non-executive chairman of the
Lululemon board in December 2013 amid public relations
controversies, his 28 percent stake remains the largest in the
company. Advisers to Wilson have screened several private-equity
firms, including Leonard Green & Partners, the Wall Street
Journal reported on July 3, citing sources familiar with the
situation.
Slowing Growth
Shares of Lululemon have dropped 36 percent this year,
heading for the worst annual performance since 2008. The
retailer’s sales growth has stalled in the last year as
increased quality checks slowed deliveries of new apparel. It’s
also been forced to win shoppers back after recalling a popular
yoga pant line because they were too sheer.
The stock declined to the lowest in three years last month
after Lululemon cut its full-year earnings and revenue
forecasts. Analysts forecast Lululemon’s earnings to decline 8
percent in its current fiscal year after growth slowed to 3
percent in the year ended in March. The company reported profit
growth of at least 46 percent in fiscal 2013 and 2012.
“Chip is still the founder and he has been very actively
involved until recently,” Quintiliano said. “Perhaps his
noise-making will be a call to action to get people moving
quicker.”
Looking Up
In recent months, analysts have cited VF Corp., the $26
billion owner of the Vans and North Face brands, as well as
Adidas AG and Nike Inc. as potential buyers for Lululemon. A
takeover could be valued at $50 a share, according to a May
estimate from Omar Saad of International Strategy & Investment
Group LLC. That would be a 33 percent premium to yesterday’s
close.
Lululemon trades at 20.2 times earnings, the lowest
valuation for the stock since 2009. The shares rose 2 percent to
$38.30 at 10:05 a.m. in New York.
Calls with an exercise price 10 percent above the stock
cost 2 points more than puts betting on a 10 percent decline,
according to one-month data compiled by Bloomberg. Bullish bets
on Lululemon cost 6.9 points more than bearish ones on July 3,
the most expensive level for calls relative to puts on record,
the data show. On July 17, three-month bullish bets cost nearly
1.1 points more than bearish ones, an all-time high.
Open interest in Lululemon options has increased 40 percent
since mid-May, with traders owning about 1.4 calls for every
put. Six of the 10 most-owned options are bullish, with $45
calls expiring this month attracting the highest ownership among
them.
‘Could Pop’
“The upside calls are pricing in the possibility of a jump
in the stock,” Chris Rich, head options strategist at
JonesTrading Institutional Services LLC in Chicago, said in an
interview July 10. “People need a lot of premium for the out-
of-the-money calls to sell them, indicating they think there are
risks that the stock could pop.”
Alecia Pulman, a spokeswoman for Lululemon who works for
Integrated Corporate Relations Inc., did not immediately respond
to requests for comment on the company’s options trading.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the
gauge of S&P 500 options prices known as the VIX, rose 4.3
percent to 12.01.
Cheaper Shares
While Lululemon’s valuation has declined, its price-sales
ratio is still the highest among specialty North American
clothing retailers with market values of at least $1 billion,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Lululemon’s price-
earnings ratio is 12 percent above its 17 peers, the data show.
Lululemon is too expensive to entice offers right now, Liz
Dunn, a New York-based senior consumer analyst for Macquarie
Group, said in a phone interview July 8. Increasing competition,
difficulty in expanding internationally and a minimal
advertising budget are all obstacles to Lululemon’s ability to
compete with more traditional names such as Adidas and Nike.
A yoga supporter with a history in the skate, surf and
snowboard business, Wilson founded Lululemon in 1998 as he
noticed an increase in women’s participation in athletics. He
served as CEO until December 2005. Wilson’s time with Lululemon
could end if he opts to sell his stake in the company rather
than attempt to buy it, a possible alternative reported by the
Wall Street Journal.
Sheer Pants
Wilson’s extended role in Lululemon has been marked by
controversy. In response to the recall of overly sheer pants,
Wilson said in an interview on Bloomberg Television that some
women’s bodies don’t work with Lululemon clothing.
“If somebody wants to take a risk and buy this company and
have Chip Wilson be involved, well good luck to them,” Dunn,
who rates the company as neutral, said by phone. “His history
with negative PR is certainly something a buyer would have to
consider if he would remain involved.”
In its first-quarter earnings report, Lululemon said that
fiscal 2014 is about expansion. It points to Canada, Australia,
New Zealand and the United Kingdom as its primary international
markets.
On March 18, Lululemon released its &go line. The new line
blends gym wear and street-friendly fashion for a clientele
that’s “out the door at daybreak and moving until midnight,”
according to its website. Development in men’s and girl’s
fashion is also a primary focus of this year’s expansion.
“I think that they’re still thought of as the premier
brand in the marketplace,” Quintiliano said. “They’re
considered the innovator of the athleisure lifestyle.”
For Related News and Information:
Lululemon Options Monitor: LULU US EQUITY OMON <GO>
Lululemon Volatility Graph: LULU US EQUITY GV <GO>
Peer comparison: LULU US <Equity> PPC <GO>
Options on Bloomberg First Word: NI OPTIONS BFW <GO>
Options Market Analysis: NI OMA <GO>
Options Volatility Tables: NI OIM <GO>
--With assistance from Lindsey Rupp in New York.
To contact the reporters on this story:
Jacob Barach in New York at +1-212-617-0707 or
jbarach1@bloomberg.net;
Callie Bost in New York at +1-212-617-3495 or
cbost2@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Lynn Thomasson at +1-212-617-0506 or
lthomasson@bloomberg.net
Michael P. Regan, Jeff Sutherland
2014-07-24 14:28:25.729 GMT
(For an Options column news alert: SALT OMA.)
By Jacob Barach and Callie Bost
July 24 (Bloomberg) -- Speculation that Lululemon Athletica
Inc.’s founder wants to sell the yoga-gear retailer has options
traders stretching toward calls to buy the shares.
Bullish one-month wagers on Lululemon cost the most on
record relative to bearish bets, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg. Traders own about the most calls relative to puts on
the stock in six months, the data show, with one of the most-
held contracts betting on a 20 percent jump by tomorrow.
Founder Dennis “Chip” Wilson has opposed the direction of
the current board and sought to regain greater control of the
company. Traders are betting Wilson’s efforts could prove
fruitful after about $3 billion was wiped from Lululemon’s
market value this year, making it more attractive to suitors.
“At these levels the valuation is quite compelling,” Pam
Quintiliano, a New York-based retail analyst for Suntrust
Robinson Humphrey Inc., said in a phone interview July 8. “It’s
come down dramatically from where it’s been historically. There
is a frenzy with takeover rumors.”
While Wilson stepped down as non-executive chairman of the
Lululemon board in December 2013 amid public relations
controversies, his 28 percent stake remains the largest in the
company. Advisers to Wilson have screened several private-equity
firms, including Leonard Green & Partners, the Wall Street
Journal reported on July 3, citing sources familiar with the
situation.
Slowing Growth
Shares of Lululemon have dropped 36 percent this year,
heading for the worst annual performance since 2008. The
retailer’s sales growth has stalled in the last year as
increased quality checks slowed deliveries of new apparel. It’s
also been forced to win shoppers back after recalling a popular
yoga pant line because they were too sheer.
The stock declined to the lowest in three years last month
after Lululemon cut its full-year earnings and revenue
forecasts. Analysts forecast Lululemon’s earnings to decline 8
percent in its current fiscal year after growth slowed to 3
percent in the year ended in March. The company reported profit
growth of at least 46 percent in fiscal 2013 and 2012.
“Chip is still the founder and he has been very actively
involved until recently,” Quintiliano said. “Perhaps his
noise-making will be a call to action to get people moving
quicker.”
Looking Up
In recent months, analysts have cited VF Corp., the $26
billion owner of the Vans and North Face brands, as well as
Adidas AG and Nike Inc. as potential buyers for Lululemon. A
takeover could be valued at $50 a share, according to a May
estimate from Omar Saad of International Strategy & Investment
Group LLC. That would be a 33 percent premium to yesterday’s
close.
Lululemon trades at 20.2 times earnings, the lowest
valuation for the stock since 2009. The shares rose 2 percent to
$38.30 at 10:05 a.m. in New York.
Calls with an exercise price 10 percent above the stock
cost 2 points more than puts betting on a 10 percent decline,
according to one-month data compiled by Bloomberg. Bullish bets
on Lululemon cost 6.9 points more than bearish ones on July 3,
the most expensive level for calls relative to puts on record,
the data show. On July 17, three-month bullish bets cost nearly
1.1 points more than bearish ones, an all-time high.
Open interest in Lululemon options has increased 40 percent
since mid-May, with traders owning about 1.4 calls for every
put. Six of the 10 most-owned options are bullish, with $45
calls expiring this month attracting the highest ownership among
them.
‘Could Pop’
“The upside calls are pricing in the possibility of a jump
in the stock,” Chris Rich, head options strategist at
JonesTrading Institutional Services LLC in Chicago, said in an
interview July 10. “People need a lot of premium for the out-
of-the-money calls to sell them, indicating they think there are
risks that the stock could pop.”
Alecia Pulman, a spokeswoman for Lululemon who works for
Integrated Corporate Relations Inc., did not immediately respond
to requests for comment on the company’s options trading.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the
gauge of S&P 500 options prices known as the VIX, rose 4.3
percent to 12.01.
Cheaper Shares
While Lululemon’s valuation has declined, its price-sales
ratio is still the highest among specialty North American
clothing retailers with market values of at least $1 billion,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Lululemon’s price-
earnings ratio is 12 percent above its 17 peers, the data show.
Lululemon is too expensive to entice offers right now, Liz
Dunn, a New York-based senior consumer analyst for Macquarie
Group, said in a phone interview July 8. Increasing competition,
difficulty in expanding internationally and a minimal
advertising budget are all obstacles to Lululemon’s ability to
compete with more traditional names such as Adidas and Nike.
A yoga supporter with a history in the skate, surf and
snowboard business, Wilson founded Lululemon in 1998 as he
noticed an increase in women’s participation in athletics. He
served as CEO until December 2005. Wilson’s time with Lululemon
could end if he opts to sell his stake in the company rather
than attempt to buy it, a possible alternative reported by the
Wall Street Journal.
Sheer Pants
Wilson’s extended role in Lululemon has been marked by
controversy. In response to the recall of overly sheer pants,
Wilson said in an interview on Bloomberg Television that some
women’s bodies don’t work with Lululemon clothing.
“If somebody wants to take a risk and buy this company and
have Chip Wilson be involved, well good luck to them,” Dunn,
who rates the company as neutral, said by phone. “His history
with negative PR is certainly something a buyer would have to
consider if he would remain involved.”
In its first-quarter earnings report, Lululemon said that
fiscal 2014 is about expansion. It points to Canada, Australia,
New Zealand and the United Kingdom as its primary international
markets.
On March 18, Lululemon released its &go line. The new line
blends gym wear and street-friendly fashion for a clientele
that’s “out the door at daybreak and moving until midnight,”
according to its website. Development in men’s and girl’s
fashion is also a primary focus of this year’s expansion.
“I think that they’re still thought of as the premier
brand in the marketplace,” Quintiliano said. “They’re
considered the innovator of the athleisure lifestyle.”
For Related News and Information:
Lululemon Options Monitor: LULU US EQUITY OMON <GO>
Lululemon Volatility Graph: LULU US EQUITY GV <GO>
Peer comparison: LULU US <Equity> PPC <GO>
Options on Bloomberg First Word: NI OPTIONS BFW <GO>
Options Market Analysis: NI OMA <GO>
Options Volatility Tables: NI OIM <GO>
--With assistance from Lindsey Rupp in New York.
To contact the reporters on this story:
Jacob Barach in New York at +1-212-617-0707 or
jbarach1@bloomberg.net;
Callie Bost in New York at +1-212-617-3495 or
cbost2@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Lynn Thomasson at +1-212-617-0506 or
lthomasson@bloomberg.net
Michael P. Regan, Jeff Sutherland