China Exports Bolster Economy as External Demand Strengthens (2)
2014-11-08 07:25:44.57 GMT
(Updates with comments by Chinese central bank governor in
eighth paragraph, precious-metal exports in the 10th paragraph.)
By Bloomberg News
Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- China’s exports rose more than
estimated in October, signaling foreign demand may help sustain
an economy forecast to grow at the slowest pace since 1990.
Overseas shipments increased 11.6 percent from a year
earlier, exceeding the 10.6 percent median estimate in a
Bloomberg News survey of analysts. Imports rose 4.6 percent,
compared with projections of 5 percent, leaving a trade surplus
of $45.4 billion, the customs administration said today.
Recoveries in the U.S. and Europe are underpinning growth,
with the two regions accounting for almost a third of shipments.
Exports to Hong Kong, which then go to other destinations,
surged 24 percent in October. Disparities in bilateral trade
data published by China and Hong Kong have raised concerns of
fake invoicing, which is used to evade controls on the flow of
capital into the mainland.
“The U.S. recovery is pretty strong so China exports are
holding up,” said Hu Yifan, chief economist at Haitong
International Securities Group Ltd. in Hong Kong. “There might
still be some fluff in the trade numbers due to fake invoicing,
but there won’t be severe fake trade like that of last year.”
The exports reading follows a 15.3 percent jump in
September. October’s trade surplus was forecast at $42 billion,
following a $30.96 billion figure for September.
‘Bumpy’ Recovery
Exports in October to members of the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations grew 18 percent from a year earlier,
today’s data showed. Shipments to Japan declined 8.1 percent.
“The global economy is going through a bumpy and torturous
recovery,” Chinese Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said at
a conference in Beijing today. “The momentum of growth is still
far from being adequate and we still have a long way to go to
achieve sustainable and balanced growth.”
China’s economy will probably grow 7.4 percent this year,
the slowest full-year expansion since 1990, according to a
Bloomberg survey. Expansion in the third quarter was 7.3
percent, with growth for the first nine months at 7.4 percent.
In September, the gap between China’s reported exports to
Hong Kong and the territory’s imports from the mainland widened
to the most this year, suggesting fake export-invoicing is again
skewing China’s trade data. Hong Kong is a major channel for
those seeking to exploit yuan appreciation or higher interest
rates in China by disguising money inflows as payment for goods
exported to foreign countries or territories.
Precious Metals
China’s government sent a team to Guangdong province to
investigate a seven-fold increase in September precious-metals
exports, which have been at the center of questionable invoicing
in the past, people familiar with the matter said last month. In
October, precious-metals exports slumped to $4.9 billion from
September’s $10.8 billion. That was still almost three times the
amount of shipments in October 2013.
“Overseas sales are resilient - though not as strong as
the headline data suggest,” Bloomberg North Asia economist Tom
Orlik wrote in a note, citing the effect of invoice exaggeration
on October exports. Today’s data “will do little to shift the
government’s commitment to moderate targeted easing, as opposed
to overblown stimulus.”
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--With assistance from Kevin Hamlin in Beijing.
To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story:
Xiaoqing Pi in Beijing at +86-10-6649-7570 or
xpi1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Malcolm Scott at +852-2293-1975 or
mscott23@bloomberg.net
John Liu, Greg Ahlstrand
2014-11-08 07:25:44.57 GMT
(Updates with comments by Chinese central bank governor in
eighth paragraph, precious-metal exports in the 10th paragraph.)
By Bloomberg News
Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- China’s exports rose more than
estimated in October, signaling foreign demand may help sustain
an economy forecast to grow at the slowest pace since 1990.
Overseas shipments increased 11.6 percent from a year
earlier, exceeding the 10.6 percent median estimate in a
Bloomberg News survey of analysts. Imports rose 4.6 percent,
compared with projections of 5 percent, leaving a trade surplus
of $45.4 billion, the customs administration said today.
Recoveries in the U.S. and Europe are underpinning growth,
with the two regions accounting for almost a third of shipments.
Exports to Hong Kong, which then go to other destinations,
surged 24 percent in October. Disparities in bilateral trade
data published by China and Hong Kong have raised concerns of
fake invoicing, which is used to evade controls on the flow of
capital into the mainland.
“The U.S. recovery is pretty strong so China exports are
holding up,” said Hu Yifan, chief economist at Haitong
International Securities Group Ltd. in Hong Kong. “There might
still be some fluff in the trade numbers due to fake invoicing,
but there won’t be severe fake trade like that of last year.”
The exports reading follows a 15.3 percent jump in
September. October’s trade surplus was forecast at $42 billion,
following a $30.96 billion figure for September.
‘Bumpy’ Recovery
Exports in October to members of the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations grew 18 percent from a year earlier,
today’s data showed. Shipments to Japan declined 8.1 percent.
“The global economy is going through a bumpy and torturous
recovery,” Chinese Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said at
a conference in Beijing today. “The momentum of growth is still
far from being adequate and we still have a long way to go to
achieve sustainable and balanced growth.”
China’s economy will probably grow 7.4 percent this year,
the slowest full-year expansion since 1990, according to a
Bloomberg survey. Expansion in the third quarter was 7.3
percent, with growth for the first nine months at 7.4 percent.
In September, the gap between China’s reported exports to
Hong Kong and the territory’s imports from the mainland widened
to the most this year, suggesting fake export-invoicing is again
skewing China’s trade data. Hong Kong is a major channel for
those seeking to exploit yuan appreciation or higher interest
rates in China by disguising money inflows as payment for goods
exported to foreign countries or territories.
Precious Metals
China’s government sent a team to Guangdong province to
investigate a seven-fold increase in September precious-metals
exports, which have been at the center of questionable invoicing
in the past, people familiar with the matter said last month. In
October, precious-metals exports slumped to $4.9 billion from
September’s $10.8 billion. That was still almost three times the
amount of shipments in October 2013.
“Overseas sales are resilient - though not as strong as
the headline data suggest,” Bloomberg North Asia economist Tom
Orlik wrote in a note, citing the effect of invoice exaggeration
on October exports. Today’s data “will do little to shift the
government’s commitment to moderate targeted easing, as opposed
to overblown stimulus.”
For Related News and Information:
Top Stories:TOP<GO>
China Fake Invoice Evidence Mounts as H.K. Gap Widens: Economy
NSN NE4XT46K50XU<GO>
China Services Gauge Joins Manufacturing in Showing Slowdown (1)
NSN NEFZKX6JIJUT <GO>
China Backs Growth in Housing Again as Slowdown Prompts U-Turn
NSN NE8MIW6S972H <GO>
--With assistance from Kevin Hamlin in Beijing.
To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story:
Xiaoqing Pi in Beijing at +86-10-6649-7570 or
xpi1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Malcolm Scott at +852-2293-1975 or
mscott23@bloomberg.net
John Liu, Greg Ahlstrand