Roche’s ACE910 Could Have ’Major’ Impact on Baxalta: UBS
2015-08-21 07:07:24.972 GMT
By Allison Connolly
(Bloomberg) -- Roche’s ACE910 has potential to be a
“gamechanger” in hemophilia and could have “major impact” on
Baxalta, UBS says in note.
* Cites survey conducted by UBS Evidence Lab in collaboration
with the Global UBS Healthcare team among 80 haemophilia A
patients
* 39% of patients stated they’d switch within 6 months of
launch, 55% within the 1st year, and 63% of patients
within the first 2 yrs
* Says downside scenario would take 40% off Baxalta stand-
alone consensus est. from 2021, reducing EPS accretion for
Shire/Baxalta by 12% & 23% in 2020 and 2023
* Says original Shire proposal (including buyback) would
still be almost EPS neutral for Shire from 2018-2023
even in this downside scenario with no cost synergies
* Notes Biogen’s Eloctate has taken 1 yr to gain just 5%
market share, supporting Shire’s argument of market
stability in hemophilia; yet new long-acting Alprolix has
taken 33% of the Factor IX market in 1 yr
* Says Shire still faces “great difficulty” in getting
Baxalta deal done; questions whether merger would lead to
divestment of GI or ADHD products
For Related News and Information:
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To contact the reporter on this story:
Allison Connolly in London at +44-20-3525-7043 or
aconnolly4@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
James Ludden at +44-20-3525-2645 or
jludden@bloomberg.net
2015-08-21 07:07:24.972 GMT
By Allison Connolly
(Bloomberg) -- Roche’s ACE910 has potential to be a
“gamechanger” in hemophilia and could have “major impact” on
Baxalta, UBS says in note.
* Cites survey conducted by UBS Evidence Lab in collaboration
with the Global UBS Healthcare team among 80 haemophilia A
patients
* 39% of patients stated they’d switch within 6 months of
launch, 55% within the 1st year, and 63% of patients
within the first 2 yrs
* Says downside scenario would take 40% off Baxalta stand-
alone consensus est. from 2021, reducing EPS accretion for
Shire/Baxalta by 12% & 23% in 2020 and 2023
* Says original Shire proposal (including buyback) would
still be almost EPS neutral for Shire from 2018-2023
even in this downside scenario with no cost synergies
* Notes Biogen’s Eloctate has taken 1 yr to gain just 5%
market share, supporting Shire’s argument of market
stability in hemophilia; yet new long-acting Alprolix has
taken 33% of the Factor IX market in 1 yr
* Says Shire still faces “great difficulty” in getting
Baxalta deal done; questions whether merger would lead to
divestment of GI or ADHD products
For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>
To contact the reporter on this story:
Allison Connolly in London at +44-20-3525-7043 or
aconnolly4@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
James Ludden at +44-20-3525-2645 or
jludden@bloomberg.net