Moderate Risk-Off to Dominate as Another Greek Deadline Set: BNP
2015-07-12 20:08:29.901 GMT
By Stefania Spezzati
(Bloomberg) -- Continued lack of clarity on Greece suggests
moderate risk-off sentiment at start of week, BNP Paribas
strategists incl. Steven Saywell say in client note.
* Investors went into weekend under assumption of binary
outcome for Greece
* Creditors’ counter-proposals appear to be tougher
* Voting intentions from Greek politicians should be watched
closely
* ECB also in focus on Monday; expect ELA to be left at
current lvl while Greek banks would likely remain closed at
least until mid-week
* ECB meeting on Thursday could be dealing with very different
risk scenario depending on Greek parliament vote
* NOTE: Greek vote on new austerity, reform measures due
Wednesday at latest, according to Eurogroup demands
* If outcome negative, ECB would likely signal or deliver
new easing measures to counter market disorder,
contagion; would be EUR negative
* In event of positive Greek scenario, any EUR relief
rally will prove short-lived
* Remain positioned for EUR downside via 1.10 put with 0.9950;
watch for opportunities to re-enter new shorts in spot
* NOTE: EUR to Stay Under Pressure With No Definitive Greek
Deal: BBVA
* NOTE: New Greek Deal Conditions Much Tougher Than
Memorandum: Citi
For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>
To contact the reporter on this story:
Stefania Spezzati in Milan at +39-02-8064-4216 or
sspezzati@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Jenny Paris at +44-20-3525-4044 or
jparis20@bloomberg.net
2015-07-12 20:08:29.901 GMT
By Stefania Spezzati
(Bloomberg) -- Continued lack of clarity on Greece suggests
moderate risk-off sentiment at start of week, BNP Paribas
strategists incl. Steven Saywell say in client note.
* Investors went into weekend under assumption of binary
outcome for Greece
* Creditors’ counter-proposals appear to be tougher
* Voting intentions from Greek politicians should be watched
closely
* ECB also in focus on Monday; expect ELA to be left at
current lvl while Greek banks would likely remain closed at
least until mid-week
* ECB meeting on Thursday could be dealing with very different
risk scenario depending on Greek parliament vote
* NOTE: Greek vote on new austerity, reform measures due
Wednesday at latest, according to Eurogroup demands
* If outcome negative, ECB would likely signal or deliver
new easing measures to counter market disorder,
contagion; would be EUR negative
* In event of positive Greek scenario, any EUR relief
rally will prove short-lived
* Remain positioned for EUR downside via 1.10 put with 0.9950;
watch for opportunities to re-enter new shorts in spot
* NOTE: EUR to Stay Under Pressure With No Definitive Greek
Deal: BBVA
* NOTE: New Greek Deal Conditions Much Tougher Than
Memorandum: Citi
For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>
To contact the reporter on this story:
Stefania Spezzati in Milan at +39-02-8064-4216 or
sspezzati@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Jenny Paris at +44-20-3525-4044 or
jparis20@bloomberg.net