Italian MidCap Luxury Cos. May Face ’Perfect Storm,’ Exane Says
2014-11-03 10:00:19.370 GMT
By Heather Burke
Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Italian midcap luxury cos. have
lagged the sector, no reason to become more optimistic, Exane
says in note.
* Valuation premiums have dropped
* Unlikely to outperform due to mix of structural factors (not
as many opportunities to increase retail selling space),
contingent (protests, epidemics) and negative cyclical
factors (China) in a possible “perfect storm”
* 4Q may be “low-key” end to weak yr for luxury, 2H ests.
account for industry deceleration, factors in Hong Kong
disruptions, drop in Russian spending, softer 2H sales
* Reiterates underperform on Cucinelli, Moncler, neutral on
Tod’s, outperform on Ferragamo
* Tod’s 2014-15 EPS ests. cut by 7% on higher Hong Kong
exposure, PT lowered to EU88 vs EU93
* Moncler PT cut to EU10.8 vs EU11, 2H growth may slow due
to warm Sept., tough industry backdrop in 4Q
* Ferragamo PT cut to EU24 vs EU25; has oldest, strongest
history among Italian midcap luxury cos., most
diversified
* Ferragamo PT cut to EU24 vs EU25; has oldest, strongest
history among Italian midcap luxury cos., most
diversified</li></ul>
* NOTE Oct. 28: European Luxury Sales Ests. Cut at Goldman as
Hong Kong Slows
* NOTE: Tod’s reports 3Q results Nov. 12, Ferragamo Nov. 13,
Cucinelli and Moncler Nov. 11
For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>
To contact the reporter on this story:
Heather Burke in London at +44-20-7673-2044 or
hburke2@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
James Ludden at +44-20-7673-2645 or
jludden@bloomberg.net
Gaurav Panchal
2014-11-03 10:00:19.370 GMT
By Heather Burke
Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Italian midcap luxury cos. have
lagged the sector, no reason to become more optimistic, Exane
says in note.
* Valuation premiums have dropped
* Unlikely to outperform due to mix of structural factors (not
as many opportunities to increase retail selling space),
contingent (protests, epidemics) and negative cyclical
factors (China) in a possible “perfect storm”
* 4Q may be “low-key” end to weak yr for luxury, 2H ests.
account for industry deceleration, factors in Hong Kong
disruptions, drop in Russian spending, softer 2H sales
* Reiterates underperform on Cucinelli, Moncler, neutral on
Tod’s, outperform on Ferragamo
* Tod’s 2014-15 EPS ests. cut by 7% on higher Hong Kong
exposure, PT lowered to EU88 vs EU93
* Moncler PT cut to EU10.8 vs EU11, 2H growth may slow due
to warm Sept., tough industry backdrop in 4Q
* Ferragamo PT cut to EU24 vs EU25; has oldest, strongest
history among Italian midcap luxury cos., most
diversified
* Ferragamo PT cut to EU24 vs EU25; has oldest, strongest
history among Italian midcap luxury cos., most
diversified</li></ul>
* NOTE Oct. 28: European Luxury Sales Ests. Cut at Goldman as
Hong Kong Slows
* NOTE: Tod’s reports 3Q results Nov. 12, Ferragamo Nov. 13,
Cucinelli and Moncler Nov. 11
For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>
To contact the reporter on this story:
Heather Burke in London at +44-20-7673-2044 or
hburke2@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
James Ludden at +44-20-7673-2645 or
jludden@bloomberg.net
Gaurav Panchal