Bernstein maintains positive stance on UPS, FDX
- Firm notes Amazon's explosive growth and increasing independence from UPS and FDX have investors worried if the market for the national carriers will shrink.
- In a range of scenarios where e-commerce sales grow at 8-12% per year for the next ten years, and Amazon grows at 17-22%, the demand for e-commerce deliveries by the national carriers should still yield a reasonable range of 7-10% growth.
- Firm thinks it highly likely that the domestic parcel market will remain a GDP + grower for UPS and FDX, front end loaded, and believe that the outsized demand for online retail will present pricing opportunities in the years ahead.