● The Sunday Times reported yesterday that Shire made an informal bid for Actelion several
weeks ago. While neither company has commented on these rumours, the reported bid was
for CHF160 per share, a 21% premium on Friday’s close price. If the rumours turn out to be
true, this would be Shire’s largest acquisition to date and comes only six months after its
$5.2bn acquisition of NPS Pharmaceuticals.
● We see synergies between the two companies and believe this acquisition would make
sense. Firstly, Actelion’s pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) franchise fits well within
Shire’s rare diseases portfolio and would be a key differentiator for the company. Secondly,
Actelion’s portfolio has been substantially de-risked in recent months, with Opsumit uptake
progressing strongly and a likely approval for Uptravi (selexipag) at the end of this year.
● We currently value Actelion at CHF135 per share. However, assuming an acquirer would
substantially cut R&D and G&A expenses, we see this valuation increase to CHF162 per share
and believe Shire’s initial offer is justified. However, as the offer was rejected, a serious offer
could come at a more substantial premium of between CHF180-200 per share.
● Actelion has long been viewed as a potential takeover target. This reported approach from
Shire will likely encourage other players to come forward with offers in the short term.
● Our valuation of Actelion is DCF-based.