The Apple of my High |
Key takeaways· Flows this week: $7.3bn into bonds, $2.3bn into equities, $0.4bn into gold
· YTD tech fund inflows on pace for record 18% AUM growth in 2017
· Bull & Bear indicator at 7.6, forthcoming sell signal needs stronger EM inflows & reversal of HY outflows
Talking Points
Flows this week: $7.3bn into bonds, $2.3bn into equities, $0.4bn into gold.
3 highlights: risk-off in fixed income with inflows to Treasuries & IG, outflows from TIPS (biggest in 5 weeks) & HY; largest health care outflows in 6 months as US reform prospects diminish; US equity outflows contrast with inflows to RoW (YTD almost $100bn into Europe/Japan/EM vs flat flows to US).
Tech fund flows: YTD inflows to tech on pace for record 18% AUM growth in 2017 (Chart 2); tech follows EM debt as big inflow winner YTD (Chart 3Chart 2); but despite strong EPS growth (Chart 4) inflows to tech slowing (Chart 1).
Bull & Bear: BofAML Bull & Bear indicator at 7.6, below "sell signal" trigger of 8; BB indicator has triggered "sell" 11 times since 2002...backtest ofsell signals revealed in table below; forthcoming sell signal requires stronger EM inflows and reversal of recent HY outflows.
Table 1: Bull & Bear indicator historical "sell" signals
Global equities (MSCI ACWI)
EQ / HG
HY / GOV
10y swap sprd
Start date
End date
B&B
Max upside foregone*
Max (3m) drawdown
Max (2m) drawdown
Max (1m) drawdown
Cross asset: Max (3m) drawdown
4/23/2002
4/30/2002
8.1
0.0%
-21.5%
-8.8%
-3.4%
-24.3%
-15.4%
-11.8ppt
1/14/2004
2/10/2004
8.1
1.3%
-6.6%
-4.3%
-2.4%
-6.6%
-3.6%
-14.2ppt
1/25/2006
5/15/2006
8.0
9.3%
-10.4%
-10.4%
-9.5%
-6.7%
-0.5%
-6.0ppt
12/29/2006
3/5/2007
8.0
3.8%
-6.4%
-6.4%
-6.4%
-7.2%
-2.0%
-10.7ppt
10/31/2007
11/8/2007
8.0
0.0%
-17.8%
-8.6%
-8.6%
-22.5%
-11.2%
-18.7ppt
10/21/2009
12/1/2009
8.0
1.1%
-7.3%
-5.3%
-5.3%
-7.0%
-1.6%
-8.0ppt
4/7/2010
5/18/2010
8.7
2.1%
-16.3%
-16.0%
-15.0%
-19.3%
-9.1%
-16.5ppt
10/20/2010
12/14/2010
8.3
3.7%
-5.8%
-5.8%
-5.8%
-5.0%
-3.2%
-12.0ppt
4/19/2011
5/26/2011
8.0
4.9%
-16.8%
-8.5%
-5.9%
-19.9%
-9.7%
-16.1ppt
3/13/2012
4/3/2012
8.1
1.1%
-13.6%
-11.3%
-4.9%
-16.6%
-6.9%
-16.7ppt
1/9/2013
3/12/2013
8.6
4.2%
-2.3%
-2.3%
-2.3%
-3.7%
-1.6%
-18.8ppt
Backtested Median
2.9%
-12.0%
-8.5%
-5.9%
-11.9%
-5.3%
-13.1ppt
Actual Median
2.1%
-2.3%
-2.3%
-2.3%
-3.7%
-1.6%
-18.8ppt
* Upside return measured from start date of "Greed" signal to market peak. Backtesting is hypothetical in nature and reflects application of the screen prior to its introduction. It is not intended to be indicative of future performance. Past performance should not and cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance. The table above presents backtested (shaded) and actual (unshaded) performance of the indicator. There has only been one actual "sell" signal since 2013 and global equity market rallied another 4.2% before a modest 2.3% drawdown.
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy
Asset Class Flows (Table 2)
Equities: 8 straight weeks of inflows ($2.3bn; $6.8bn into ETFs, $4.5bn outflows from mutual funds)
Bonds: 20 straight weeks of inflows ($7.3bn)
Precious metals: first inflows in 5 weeks ($0.4bn)
Table 2: Global asset class flows, $mn
Wk % AUM
YTD
YTD %AUM
Equities
0.0%
197,137
2.5%
ETFs
0.2%
261,153
10.2%
LO
-0.1%
-64,019
-1.2%
Bonds
0.2%
236,528
5.9%
Commodities
-0.2%
6,845
4.4%
Money-market
0.5%
-27,746
-0.8%
* week of 8/2/17; Source: BofAML Global Investment Strategy, EPFR Global
Fixed Income Flows (Chart 5)
32 straight weeks of IG bond inflows ($5.8bn)
Outflows from HY bond funds 6 of past 7 weeks ($0.7bn)
27 straight weeks of inflows to EM debt funds ($1.9bn)
Inflows to muni funds 8 of past 9 weeks ($0.1bn)
Inflows to bank loan funds 3 of past 4 weeks ($0.1bn)
First outflows from TIPS funds in 5 weeks ($0.3bn)
First inflows to govt/tsy funds in 3 weeks ($0.2bn)
Equity Flows (Table 3)
US: 7 straight weeks of outflows ($2.7bn)
EM: 20 straight weeks of inflows ($2.2bn)
Japan: inflows 7 of past 8 weeks ($0.8bn)
Europe: inflows 18 of past 19 weeks ($1.3bn)
By style: US value fund outflows 14 of past 15 weeks ($0.3bn), outflows from US growth ($1.6bn), first inflows to US small caps in 7 weeks ($1.7bn)
By sector: inflows to financials ($0.1bn), real estate($0.3bn); outflows from tech ($0.1bn), materials ($0.6bn), energy ($30mm), utilities ($0.1bn), healthcare ($0.9bn, largest in 27 weeks), consumer($0.6bn)
Table 4: The Asset Class Quilt of Total Returns
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017*
Commodities
31.8%US Fixed Inc.
8.3%Commodities
25.9%MSCI EM
56.3%REITS
32.0%MSCI EM
34.5%REITS
37.5%MSCI EM
39.8%US Treasuries
14.0%MSCI EM
79.0%Gold
29.2%US Treasuries
9.8%REITS
23.8%S&P 500
32.4%S&P 500
13.7%S&P 500
1.4%S&P 500
12.0%MSCI EM
48.5%US Treasuries
13.4%US Treasuries
6.7%Gold
25.6%MSCI EAFE
39.2%MSCI EM
26.0%Commodities
21.4%MSCI EM
32.6%Gold
31.9%US Fixed Inc.
4.5%MSCI EAFE
32.5%MSCI EM
19.2%Gold
8.9%MSCI EM
18.6%MSCI World
27.4%REITS
11.7%US Treasuries
0.8%Commodities
11.8%MSCI EAFE
33.4%US Fixed Inc.
11.7%Cash
4.4%US Treasuries
11.6%MSCI World
33.8%MSCI EAFE
20.7%Gold
17.8%MSCI EAFE
26.9%Commodities
16.2%Gold
4.3%REITS
31.7%Commodities
16.8%US Fixed Inc.
7.8%MSCI EAFE
17.9%MSCI EAFE
23.3%US Fixed Inc.
6.3%US Fixed Inc.
0.6%MSCI EM
11.2%MSCI World
25.4%REITS
8.5%Gold
-0.7%US Fixed Inc.
10.3%REITS
33.5%MSCI World
15.2%MSCI EAFE
14.0%Gold
23.2%MSCI EAFE
11.6%Cash
2.1%MSCI World
30.8%REITS
15.9%S&P 500
2.1%MSCI World
16.5%REITS
0.7%US Treasuries
6.0%Cash
0.1%Gold
8.6%S&P 500
20.7%Cash
6.2%MSCI EM
-2.4%Cash
1.8%S&P 500
28.7%S&P 500
10.9%REITS
10.7%MSCI World
20.7%MSCI World
9.6%Commodities
-35.6%S&P 500
26.5%S&P 500
15.1%Cash
0.1%S&P 500
16.0%Cash
0.1%MSCI World
5.5%MSCI EAFE
-0.8%MSCI World
7.5%Gold
17.5%Gold
-5.4%REITS
-7.8%REITS
-2.4%Commodities
23.9%Commodities
9.1%MSCI World
10.0%S&P 500
15.8%US Treasuries
9.1%S&P 500
-37.0%Gold
25.0%MSCI World
12.3%MSCI World
-5.0%Gold
8.3%US Fixed Inc.
-2.2%Gold
0.1%MSCI World
-0.9%US Fixed Inc.
2.6%REITS
13.1%S&P 500
-9.1%S&P 500
-11.9%MSCI EM
-6.0%Gold
19.9%Gold
4.6%S&P 500
4.9%Cash
4.9%US Fixed Inc.
7.0%MSCI World
-40.3%Commodities
18.9%MSCI EAFE
8.2%REITS
-9.4%US Fixed Inc.
4.5%MSCI EM
-2.3%Cash
0.0%REITS
-3.4%REITS
1.3%US Fixed Inc.
5.8%MSCI World
-12.9%MSCI World
-16.5%MSCI EAFE
-15.7%US Fixed Inc.
4.1%US Fixed Inc.
4.7%Cash
3.1%US Fixed Inc.
4.4%S&P 500
5.5%MSCI EAFE
-43.1%US Fixed Inc.
6.1%US Fixed Inc.
6.8%MSCI EAFE
-11.7%US Treasuries
2.2%US Treasuries
-3.3%MSCI EM
-1.8%Gold
-10.4%US Treasuries
1.1%US Treasuries
4.0%MSCI EAFE
-14.0%Commodities
-19.5%MSCI World
-19.5%US Treasuries
2.3%US Treasuries
3.5%US Treasuries
2.8%US Treasuries
3.1%Cash
5.0%REITS
-50.2%Cash
0.2%US Treasuries
5.9%Commodities
-13.3%Cash
0.1%Commodities
-9.5%MSCI EAFE
-4.5%MSCI EM
-14.9%MSCI EAFE
1.0%Cash
0.6%MSCI EM
-30.6%MSCI EAFE
-21.2%S&P 500
-22.1%Cash
1.1%Cash
1.3%US Fixed Inc.
2.6%Commodities
2.1%REITS
-10.0%MSCI EM
-53.2%US Treasuries
-3.7%Cash
0.1%MSCI EM
-18.2%Commodities
-1.1%Gold
-27.3%Commodities
-17.0%Commodities
-24.7%Cash
0.3%Commodities
-9.8%Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg; * 2017 annualized returns