Asian Market Update: BoJ Oct meeting minutes reveal a split over attaining 2% inflation target; PBoC Gov supports wider Yuan trading band
***Observations/Insights*** - BOJ released the minutes of its Oct 31st meeting, containing no less than 3 dissenting voices out of 9 board members with a minority view. While the majority said the BOJ 2% inflation target can still be achieved toward the latter half of the 2-year timeframe, the dissenters said it may be difficult to reach the target. One member said inflation already peaked and noted Yen weakness would be temporary. Another member said BOJ credibility may be undermined if the time frame is not met, requiring a more formal warning. All 3 members' requests for language changes were voted down by the majority. - PBoC Gov Zhou reiterated China central bank will preserve "prudent" monetary policy but also expressed some further support on widening the yuan band. Euro currency rose against the dollar and on the crosses after the PBoC said EUR is an important part of China's FX reserve management system. PBoC was also positive on French govt debt. - RBA Dep Gov Lowe reiterated Gov Stevens' comments from last week that an intervention cannot be ruled out, but also added the threshold for the move is fairly high, sending AUD up about 50pips above $0.92 handle session high. Lowe also said productivity was improving and could be expected to rise further in export space, while also forecasting a lower terms of trade in the future.
***Economic Data*** - (PH) PHILIPPINES SEPT TRADE BALANCE: -$666M V -$411ME - (JP) JAPAN OCT CORPORATE SERVICE PRICE INDEX Y/Y: 0.8% V 0.9%E (5-year high) - (KR) SOUTH KOREA NOV CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 107 V 106 PRIOR (33-month high)
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - JGB: Japan MoF sells ¥399.2B in 1.9% 40-year bonds, bid to cover: 4.13x v 3.37x prior - (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells 2022 Indexed Notes; avg yield: 1.6139%; bid-to-cover: 5.22x - (CN) Daily Shibor fixings: O/N: 3.7460% v 3.8470% prior (2nd consecutive decline); 1-week: 4.6775% v 4.7400% prior (2nd consecutive decline) - (CN) PBoC to inject CNY32B in 7-day reverse repos (3rd consecutive injection) - (CN) PBoC temporarily halts CNY1B of bills rollover for the first time after July - Chinese press
- SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 10,330 tonnes (lowest level since 10,284 on Jul 23rd) from 10,360 tonnes - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 3.3 tonnes to 848.9 tonnes (lowest since Jan 2009)
- EUR/USD: Rises to session high $1.3540 following PBoC Gov comments regarding euro remaining a big part of FX diversification; AUD/USD hit session highs above $0.92, helped by "high threshold for intervention" comments from RBA's Lowe. USD was also under pressure elsewhere, with USD/JPY falling toward 101.30 following the release of a BOJ minutes split and NZD/USD tested $0.8260 - up about 50pips from opening lows.
***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) PBoC Gov Zhou Xiaochuan: Domestic inflation stable; Must continue prudent monetary policy; To widen yuan trading band in orderly fashion - financial press - (CN) China house prices expected to rise 5% in 2014 after 10% gain in 2013 - financial press - (CN) Citigroup: Sees China 2013 GDP at 7.6%, 2014 GDP at 7.3% - (CN) PBoC's Xu Nuojin: 8% GDP growth not a problem in coming years; 8% export growth target is difficult to reach - financial press - (CN) China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) vice Chairman Lian : China may loosen investment approval policy - (CN) China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) vice Chairman Yao: China to proactively consider preferred shares - Chinese press - (CN) China should slightly loosen monetary policy - Chinese press - (HK) Goldman Sachs: Raises forecast for Hang Sang Index in 2014 to 26,500 from 25,500 prior forecast
- (JP) Japan and US may deploy unmanned plane to East China Sea - Nikkei News - (JP) Japan MOF plans to reduce primary budget deficit by more than ¥4T in FY14/15 - financial press - (JP) Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga: Japan to work closely with international community to call for China restraint - (JP) Japan Econ Min Amari: TPP talks discrepancies have narrowed considerably
- (AU) RBA's Corbett: The economy would benefit from lower AUD - financial press interview - (AU) RBA Dep Gov Lowe: Expects in time to see the AUD lower; does not rule out intervention, threshold for intervention fairly high
- (KR) South Korea Fin Min Hyun: Sees 2014 GDP around 4% range - financial press - (KR) According to sources in South Korea Treasury, over 40% of planned govt spending may not get executed if the National Assembly does not endorse 2014 budget bill - Korean press
***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 -0.6%, S&P/ASX +0.3%, Kospi +0.1%, Shanghai Composite flat, Hang Seng +0.2%, Dec S&P500 +0.1% at 1,804, Feb gold +0.8% at $1,252, Jan crude oil +0.2% at $94.32/brl
US markets: - PANW: Reports Q1 $0.08 v $0.07e, R$128.2M v $121Me; +9.0% afterhours - WDAY: Reports Q3 -$0.12 v -$0.17e, R$127.9M v $118Me; +8.1% afterhours - PWRD: Reports Q3 $0.46 (adj) v $0.37e, R$136M v $132Me; +7.1% afterhours - LGND: To be added to S&P600 after the close of trading at Nov 27th; +3.0% afterhours - AXE: Declares $5.00/shr special dividend; +1.7% afterhours - ITW: At least 6 major private equity groups said to be competing to buy the industrial packaging unit; Deal estimated above $3B - financial press; +0.6% afterhours
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer discretionary: L'Occitane 973.HK -2.8% (H1 results) - Industrials: Beihai Port Co Ltd 000582.CN +4.3%, Guangxi Wuzhou Communications Co Ltd 600368.CN +1.9% (speculations on Guangxi Dongxing City free trade zone); Daelim Industrial Co Ltd 000210.KR +1.1% (awarded order); Hyundai Motor Co 005380.KR +0.2% (US sales forecast); Ningbo Port Co Ltd 601018.CN +9.8%, Ningbo Marine Co Ltd 600798.CN +10.1%, Ningbo Fuda Co Ltd 600724.CN +9.6% (speculations on free trade zone in Zhejiang Province) - Materials: St Barbara Ltd SBM.AU +5.3% (FY14 production guidance) - Financials: Leopalace21 Corp 8848.JP -9.2% (share sale plan); China South City Holdings Ltd 1668.HK -7.3% (H1 results) - Technology: Mobicon Group Ltd 1213.HK +4.8% (H1 results); Xero Ltd XRO.AU -3.7% (H1 results) - Energy: ENN Energy Holdings Ltd 2688.HK +4.8% (strategic alliance with IBM); Sinopec 386.HK -2.8% (pipeline explosion)