Asian Market Update: China stocks surge on more details from 3rd plenum agenda, while y/y property price gains accelerate
***Observations/Insights*** - China markets are broadly outperforming with Hang Seng at 2-month highs above 23,550 and Shanghai Composite hitting 3-week highs above 2,160; Late on Friday, China cabinet released the formal decision of the third plenary session of the 18th Central Committee containing much more detailed and ambitious layout for reform than initially expressed in a communique earlier last week that widely disappointed investors. Specifically, markets are cheering a push to establish a deposit insurance system, accelerate Yuan convertibility, allow transfer of non-farming rural land, and loosen one-child policy so as not to penalize the 2nd child born to a family of just one only-child parent. - China October new home prices saw m/m increases slow down slightly due to some of the recent curbs in the property sector, but on y/y basis the 10th consecutive increase was at a record high pace of 9.6%. Bureau Stats officials said the biggest margin of increase was in the larger cities, and with the plenum outlining an easier path of transition for migrant workers from rural areas, housing supply is likely to remain tight. - The start of a Dubai Air Show saw GE, Boeing, and EADS land multibillion dollar contracts.
***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA OCT NEW HOME PRICES M/M: PRICES RISE IN 65 OF 70 CITIES V 65 PRIOR; Y/Y: PRICES RISE IN 69 OF 70 CITIES V 69 PRIOR - (JP) JAPAN Q3 HOUSING LOANS Y/Y: 3.0% V 3.2% PRIOR (1-yr low) - (JP) JAPAN OCT TOKYO CONDOMINIUM SALES Y/Y: 21.4% V 77.3% PRIOR - (KR) SOUTH KOREA OCT PPI Y/Y: -1.4% V -1.8% PRIOR (13th consecutive decline) - (SG) SINGAPORE OCT ELECTRONIC EXPORTS Y/Y: -1.4% V -5.5% PRIOR; NON-OIL DOMESTIC EXPORTS M/M: +3.2% V -2.0E; Y/Y: +2.8% V -3.1%E - (TH) THAILAND Q3 GDP Q/Q: 1.3% V 1.5%E; Y/Y: 2.7% V 2.9%E - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND OCT PERFORMANCE SERVICES INDEX: 58.2 V 56.4 PRIOR (6-year high) - (UK) UK NOV RIGHTMOVE HOUSE PRICES M/M: -2.4% V +2.8% PRIOR (11-month low); Y/Y: 4.0% V 3.8% PRIOR
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥400B in 5-10yr JGB; To buy ¥450B in CP and ¥20B in inflation-indexed bonds - (KR) South Korea MoF sells KRW1.75T in 10-yr bonds, avg yield 3.580% - SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings rise to 10,404 tonnes (first rise since Oct 28th) from 10,392 tonnes
- AUD and NZD are up about 50 and 30pips respectively on the dollar, boosted by upbeat sentiment in China stocks. AUD/USD tested above the $0.94 handle, and NZD/USD rose as high as $0.8360. USD/JPY pared initial gains above 100.40 to briefly fall below ¥100 handle, while EUR/USD traded in a 25pip range capped by $1.35.
***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China National Bureau of Stats (NBS): China Oct home prices m/m narrows partially due to property curbs; Home prices rise y/y by larger margin mostly in Tier-1 cities and some Tier-2 and -3 cities - (CN) China National Bureau of Stats (NBS): China to push forward new GDP accounting system by end of 2014 - Chinese press - (CN) China Iron and Steel Association (CISA): China avg daily crude steel production 2.144M tonnes in early Nov, +2.2% from last ten days - (CN) Goldman Sachs: China 3rd plenum pledges are ambitious; Decisions to boost sentiment
- (JP) Japan, EU agree to further efforts for early FTA deal - Kyodo News - (JP) Japan Defense Ministry reported China reconnaissance plane sighted near disputed Senkaku island territories - Japanese press
- (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) Gov Kim: South Korea economy unlikely to be hit by household debt crisis - Korean press - (KR) South Korea state-run think tank Korea Development Institute (KDI): Weak domestic demand and falling costs of imports have led to low inflation rates; Little chance inflation will pick up soon - Korean press
- (DE) Bundesbank board member Nagel: No asset price bubble is building for the time being; Investors are aware low interest rates will not last - German press - (FR) France Budget Min Cazeneuve: Weak economic growth causing a €5.5B shortfall in tax revenue - BFM - (IR) Senior Iran negotiator Araqchi: Next round of nuclear talks likely to be difficult - press
- (US) Federal Reserve said to be considering delaying the deadline for banks to comply with the Volcker Rule - FT
***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 +0.2%, S&P/ASX -0.3%, Kospi +0.4%, Shanghai Composite +1.4%, Hang Seng +2.2%, Dec S&P500 -0.1% at 1,792, Dec gold -0.1% at $1,286, Dec crude oil -0.3% at $93.53/brl
US markets: - BA: awarded record 777x orders as Dubai Airshow - GE: Received $26B in jet engine orders, services agreements - WMT: Completes inspections at 75 factories in Bangladesh; Half of factories failed audits, requiring remedies - financial press - AAPL: Said to be in plans to acquire PrimeSense for $345M - financial press
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer discretionary: Panasonic Corporation 6752.JP -0.6% (to sell mobile-phone repair unit); Bright Dairy & Food 600597.CN +0.7% (cancels stock repurchase); Gree Inc 3632.JP +6.5% (acquisition plans) - Industrials: Downer EDI DOW.AU +1.6% (awarded contract); Elders ELD.AU -4.2% (FY13 results); Grand Ming Group Holdings Ltd 1271.HK +16.1% (H1 results); Shanghai International Airport Co Ltd 600009.CN +2.5% (Oct results); Hyundai Heavy 000720.KR +1.4% (awarded contract) - Materials: Yueyang Forest & Paper Co Ltd 600963.CN +4.0% (govt subsidy) - Financials: China Pacific Insurance Group Co Ltd 601601.CN +3.1%, First Tractor Co Ltd 38.HK +8.9%, Yashili International Holdings Ltd 1230.HK +10.1% (China reform plans) - Technology: Yahoo! Japan Corp 4689.JP +3.4% (forms strategic partnership) - Telecom: ZTE Corp 763.HK +2.2% (smart watch plans)