Asian Market Update: Decline in Australia business confidence sends AUD to 3-week lows
***Observations/Insights*** - Overnight, economic data out of China was fairly disappointing, as new Yuan loans in Oct hit 10-month lows. CICC and Conference Board are tracking the recent estimates out of JPMorgan indicating China 2014 GDP target may be lowered to 7.0% from 7.5% in 2013. - Australia NAB business confidence index fell sharply from 12 to 5 for the month of October. NAB chief economist stated "Forward indicators do not paint a favorable picture for the outlook, with capacity utilization falling to a four-year low and the level of forward orders, capex and stocks also declining. While employment conditions lifted to a one-year high, the index remained negative implying further jobs shedding." - Japan cabinet officials defended Abenomics as a policy not designated to affect exchange rates. Comments coming ahead of the release of Japan's GDP later this week as well as next week's talks with US Treasury Secretary Lew at the TPP summit in Utah. - Rusal falls nearly 1% after reporting Q3 results; Net loss of $132M exceeded $76M loss in y/y period, while Rev fell 5% to $2.43B. Gross margins contracted about 90bps to 13.9% even as cost of sales fell. Rusal retained its bullish outlook for China, noting growth of primary aluminium in the region will improve from previous 9.5% forecast to 10%, "followed by other largest growing markets with India (6% growth), Asia excluding China (6% growth) and North America (5% growth)."
***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA OCT YUAN LOANS (CNY): 506.1B V 580.0BE (10-month low) - (AU) AUSTRALIA OCT NAB BUSINESS CONDITIONS: -4 V -4 PRIOR; NAB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 5 V 12 PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT CREDIT CARD BALANCES (A$): 48.8B V 48.9B PRIOR; CREDIT CARD PURCHASES: 22.0B V 21.8B PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND ANZ TRUCKOMETER HEAVY M/M: 0.3% V 0.0% PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND REINZ OCT HOUSE PRICE INDEX: 3,839 V 3,778 PRIOR; M/M: 1.6% V 0.8% PRIOR; HOUSE SALES Y/Y: 2.1% V 19.0% PRIOR (3-month low) - (JP) JAPAN SEPT TERTIARY INDUSTRY INDEX M/M: -0.2% V 0.2%E - (JP) JAPAN OCT MONEY STOCK M2 Y/Y: 4.1% V 3.9%E (multi-year high); M3: 3.3% V 3.1%E - (KR) SOUTH KOREA OCT EXPORT PRICE INDEX M/M: -1.9% V -2.4% PRIOR; Y/Y: -4.6% V -4.6% PRIOR; IMPORT PRICE INDEX M/M: -2.4% V -2.3% PRIOR; Y/Y: -7.3% V -8.1% PRIOR - (UK) UK OCT RICS HOUSE PRICES BALANCE: 57% V 58%E (multi-year high)
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (CN) Daily Shibor fixings: O/N: 3.3290% v 3.6000% prior (2nd consecutive decline; 3-week low); 1-week: 3.5450% v 3.7800% prior (2nd consecutive decline; 3-week low) - (CN) PBoC to inject CNY9B in 7-day reverse repos - JGB: (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥454.1B in 1.8% (1.8% prior) 30-yr notes; Avg yield: 1.616% v 1.630% prior; Bid to cover: 4.40x v 4.07x prior - (AU) Australia 10-yr govt yields rise to 4.29% (20-month high) - (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$150M in 2.5% 2030 indexed Bonds; avg yield: 2.09%; bid-to-cover: 3.51x - SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 10,443 tonnes (2-week low) from 10,497 tonnes - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily value at $35.8B, lowest level since Oct 2009
- USD was bid across the board in the wake of better than expected non farm payrolls on Friday, with volumes picking up as Europe returns following the Armistice holiday. EUR/USD fell 25pips from the highs below $1.3390 and USD/JPY hit a 7-week highs above ¥99.50. AUD/USD was damaged further by the NAB confidence data, falling over 40pips below $0.9330 to 3-week lows. NZD/USD was down by over 50pips at one point below $0.8210.
***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) According to research from Hay Group, China average wages will rise by about 8.9% in 2014 vs 8.5% expected for 2013 - China Daily - (CN) China to raise local government financing vehicle (LGFV) threshold to issue debt - Chinese press - (CN) China International Capital Corp (CICC): China may lower 2014 GDP target to 7.0%, down from 7.5% for 2013 - Chinese press
- (JP) Japan PM Abe's Cabinet approval rating declines by 3 percentage points to 53% - Asahi News - (JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: Informed the US Treasury Sec Lew that he hopes US will resolve uncertainty over US fiscal issues - (JP) Japan Econ Min Amari: Would welcome move to raise wages - financial press
- (KR) South Korea state-run think tank Korea Development Institute (KDI): South Korea 2014 current surplus to shrink at $45-56B due to stronger KRW and domestic demand - (KR) Survey finds analysts unanimous Bank of Korea (BOK) will maintain base rate at 2.50% on Thurs Nov 14 - financial press
- (PH) Philippines Treasurer De Leon: Philippines has no plans to sell more bonds on typhoon
***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 +1.7%, S&P/ASX +0.1%, Kospi +0.7%, Shanghai Composite +0.5%, Hang Seng -0.7%, Dec S&P500 flat at 1,768, Dec gold -0.2% at $1,278, Dec crude oil -0.3% at $94.85/brl
***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 +1.7%, S&P/ASX +0.1%, Kospi +0.7%, Shanghai Composite +0.5%, Hang Seng -0.7%, Dec S&P500 flat at 1,768, Dec gold -0.2% at $1,278, Dec crude oil -0.3% at $94.85/brl
US markets: - INOC: In Discussions with Holders Regarding Possible Transaction at $8.20/shr; +1.8% afterhours - MAR: To replace Randgold Resources on the NASDAQ-100 Index; effective Nov 18th - NWSA: Reports Q1 $0.03 v $0.04e, R$2.07B v $2.19Be (update); -1.9% afterhours - CRAY: Reports Q3 -$0.35 v -$0.12e, R$54.4M v $89.9Me; affirms FY13; guides FY14 above consensus; -2.3% afterhours - HOLX: Reports Q4 $0.39 v $0.37e, R$622.1M v $625Me; -8.5% afterhours
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer discretionary: Dentsu Inc 4324.JP +3.5% (Raises FY13/14 guidance); Daiichikosho Co Ltd 7458.JP +6.2% (H1 results); SJM Holdings 880.HK -4.5% (Q3 results; analyst action); Anhui Quanchai Engine Co Ltd 600218.CN +2.6% (plans private placement for business expansion); China Foods 506.HK -3.0% (profit warning) - Consumer staples: Daio Paper Corp 3880.JP -3.4% (H1 results) - Industrials: United Co Rusal 486.HK -0.9% (Q3 results); Taiyo Yuden 6976.JP -11.7% (H1 results); Obayashi Corp 1802.JP -3.0% (press speculation on H1 results); Incitec Pivot Ltd IPL.AU +9.6% (FY13 results); Hyundai Mipo Dockyard Co Ltd 010620.KR +3.6% (awarded order) - Materials: Sam Yung Trading Co Ltd 002810.KR +3.7% (Q3 results) - Financials: Chiba Bank 8331.JP +5.6% (H1 results); ORIX Corp 8591.JP +4.0% (to acquire stake) - Technology: Samsung Electronics 005930.KR +2.2% (to release Tizen in Feb 2014); Sony Corp 6758.JP +3.5% (PS4 sales expectations); Funai Electric Co 6839.JP +8.2% (H1 results); Acer Inc 2353.TW +1.0% (Oct results) - Energy: Japan Wind Development Co 2766.JP +14.1% (H1 results); GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd 3800.HK +2.5% (Q3 production results) - Healthcare: Towa Pharmaceuticals 4553.JP +4.9% (H1 results); Sosei Group Corp 4565.JP +5.6% (H1 results)