(BofA-ML) With the Swiss temporarily abandonment their EUR/CHF, we try to draw s

With the Swiss temporarily abandonment their EUR/CHF, we try to draw some early guesses on IMPACT:
1. There will be significant losses in Swiss rates markets amongst banks & clients
2. There will be significant losses in $/CHF positions amongst speculative clients using $/CHF as a EUR/$ proxy
3. In EUR/CHF there will be losses amongst structured & private clients who sold downside optionality short
4. #1 and #2 are likely big enough to create a “risk off” tone as losses are felt and VAR limits shrink: IMPACT SOON
5. #3 could mean that other popular fully funded positions in retail space such as long Gold may be liquidated to fund losses: IMPACT SLOWER
6. This blatant mistake by the SNB (allowing their currency to move 30% at one point) will bring into question our trust of CB’s globally
Those are our first guesses and we very much welcome all other ideas of impact and consequences.

>>> X.Niel Bought Orange Switz. a month ago for CHF2.8b, not a bad trade if

(FTI) Xavier Niel buys Orange Switzerland for CHF2.8bn

>>> X.Niel Bought Orange Switz. a month ago for CHF2.8b, not a bad trade if he already paid...
Xavier Niel buys Orange Switzerland for CHF2.8bn
2014-12-18 14:43:16.781 GMT


Adam Thomson in Paris and Arash Massoudi in London
Dec. 18 (Financial Times) -- Xavier Niel has acquired
Orange Switzerland for CHF2.8bn (€2.3bn) in the latest sign of
the French entrepreneur's ambition to build a Eu...

The full story is available on Bloomberg to Financial Times
corporate subscribers. <a href="entreq:43358">Click here</a> to receive details on pricing.

JPM - SNB capitulates and abandons the floor - initial thoughts

SNB capitulates and abandons the floor - initial thoughts
The SNB’s decision to abandon the floor for EUR/CHF is remarkable but not unwarranted. As we have long argued and indeed positioned for, the SNB was losing the ability to prevent an increasingly justified depreciation in the euro against the franc. The pressure was bought to a head by the prospects for ECB QE and the SNB’s inability to substantially expand its balance sheet from an already bloated 85% of GDP.
The timing of the move may have had part to do with the release last week of the SNB’s massive profits for 2014 (CHF 38bn) which provide a sizeable cushion against the mark-to-market losses the SNB will suffer on its reserve portfolio (the SNB would have been bankrupted by this de-pegging had it not made such a large profit last year).
Most surprising in today’s decision is that the SNB has not chosen to retreats in a managed fashion – it has completely removed the floor such that EUR/CHF is now free floating. This is the cleanest option for the SNB – all ties to ECB policy can now be cut - but also the one with the greatest risk of triggering an undershoot in EUR/CHF from fair-value (which we put around 1.10) as it forces an accelerated unwind of non-resident franc funding (probably in the region of CHF 150-175bn). The SNB is attempting to manage the risk of an undershoot by further lowering interest rates by 50bp (the sight deposit rate is now -75bp), but this is almost inconsequential in the context of the kind of flows and balance sheet stress for many private sector participants that today’s decision will unleash.
We are currently short EUR/CHF through a 1.2088 put, expiry 16 March. This is currently valued around 40%. We will hold for now but look to unwind if spot dips much below 0.90. 

>>> Wm Morrison could attract bid from Aldi

Wm Morrison could attract bid from Aldi 

Aldi, a German discount supermarket group, could be mulling a takeover bid for the listed UK-based Wm Morrison Supermarkets, The Independent reported. The newspaper’s market report section did not cite a source for the speculation.

A market report in the Daily Telegraph also mentioned speculation regarding Aldi’s possible interest in Wm Morrison. The report cited traders for the gossip, but added that dealers dismissed the rumour and that the speculation had died down by yesterday lunchtime.

Wm Morrison’s share price closed 5.7p up at 179.1p in London yesterday, 14 January, giving the company a market capitalisation of GBP 4.18bn (EUR 5.40bn).

Independent, Daily Telegraph

>>> What to look at today - 15th of January 2015

Dow-1,06% S&P-0,58% Nasdaq-0,48% Russell-0,30%
US Market closed lower for theit fourth day in a row, Nasdaq continue to Outperform, World Bank's reduced growth outlook for 2015 (to 3.0% from 3.4%) and 2016 (to 3.3% from 3.5%) this was one of the main catalyst, outlook put pressure on commodities with mainly copper trading down) Crude was also under pressure but manage to close on highs @ $48.55 (-1% @ $48.02 this morning)...Financials were lower (-1.4%) after JPM ( -3.5%)...BBRY was in focus after rumors of potential Samsung interest...stock traded up 30%, news was denied after closed BBRY -15% after hours...volume were above average @900mil shares...VIX @ 21.48 +4.47%...US After Hours +10.4%, LPSN +3.8%, EHTH -46.0%, GEF -4.3%, ARTX -1.2% following earnings/guidance... India Central Bank cut its Repo and Reverse Repo rates by 25bps to 7.75% and 6.75% respectively. This follows some improvement in inflation trends, as cooling of prices had been speculated to give the RBI some room to ease liquidity. INR firmed by about 0.5% on the easing on bets that easier monetary stance will spur higher growth rates and more external investment., this move helped Asian market to trade higher... Bank of Korea left rates on hold at 2.0% as expected in a unanimous decision, but also cut 2015 GDP target to 3.4% from 3.9% and CPI to 1.9% from 2.4%. BOK anticipates inflation to bottom and start rising by H2 of this year...Economic data out of Japan remains disappointing, as shortfall in November machine orders forced the govt to cut its assessment to state the recovery is showing signs of stalling. Wholesale inflation was also underwhelming, with y/y 1.9% coming in as a 9-month low. BOJ Gov Kuroda reiterated he's prepared to adjust policy as needed to achieve 2% inflation target, adding the falloff in demand after sales tax rise is waning.
Nikkei +1.86% Hang Seng +0.52% Shnaghai +3.02%

RUB $64.14 RUB €75.45 WTI $48.04 (-0.92%) Brent $48.04

Eur$ 1.1770 S&P +0.81% EuroStoxx +1.2% Dax +1.08% SMI +1.02%

Macro :
- Greece May Get Debt Extension, Must Avoid ‘Turmoil,’ Rehn Says
- EBRD May Report Loss Due to Turmoil in Russia, Ukraine: Reuters
- Goldman Sachs sees China 2015 GDP slowing to 7.0%
- French 2014 State Deficit Slightly Less Than EU86B: Echos
- Katainen Says New EU Fund Will Provide Riskier Loans: Il Sole

Keep an eye on :
- AF FP : Air France-KLM to Seek EU2B of Savings Over Three Years: Echos
- BOL FP : Bollore Raises Havas Voting Stake to 72.81% With Offer
- DAI GY : Mercedes Recalls 114,000 Cars With Faulty Seals: Reuters
- DBK GY : Deutsche Asset & Wealth Hires Mihir Meswani, Nicolas Laporte
- DL NA : Delta Lloyd to Sell German Business to Athene, No Price Given
- EDF FP : EDF, China to Sign Agreement for U.K. Nuclear Plant by End-March
- ENI IM : Eni Says It Has Nothing to Do With Acts Cited in Saipem Probe
- HEI GY : Togo Unit of HeidelbergCement to Build Cement Plant
- HMB SS : H&M Dec. Sales Rise More Than Est.
- MT NA : ArcelorMittal Issues EU750m, 3.125% Notes Due 14 Jan. 2022
- CFR VX : Richemont 3Q Sales Miss Ests.
- SCYR SM : Sacyr Creditors to Agree to Refinance Repsol Debt: Confidencial
- SDIA SS : Skandia Considering IPO of Norwegian Banking Operations
- SIK VX : Sika: Ethos launches support group for shareholder proposal to delete opting out provision
- SPI LN : Cinven to Sell 40.1m Shares in Spire Healthcare, Cinven Completed Sale of Spire Shrs at 315p/Shr