(BFW) *MARCHIONNE SAYS ‘DOUBTS’ ON EUROPE CAR SALES RECOVERY

BN 10/02 09:18 *FIAT CEO MARCHIONNE SAYS NO PLAN TO SELL POLISH PLANT
BN 10/02 09:14 *MARCHIONNE SAYS `DOUBTS' ON EUROPE CAR SALES RECOVERY
BN 10/02 09:09 *MARCHIONNE SAYS EUROPE CAR MKT NOT IN ROSY SITUATION
BN 10/02 09:08 *MARCHIONNE REITERATES FIAT TO DISCUSS CAPITAL ISSUES END OF OCT
BN 10/02 09:08 *MARCHIONNE SAYS WILL DISCUSS 2014 TARGETS AFTER 3Q RESULTS
BN 10/02 09:07 *FIAT CEO MARCHIONNE SPEAKS AT PARIS CAR SHOW
BN 10/02 09:07 *FIAT CEO MARCHIONNE CONFIRMS 2014 TARGETS FOR NOW
BN 10/02 09:07 *MARCHIONNE SAYS CAPITAL INCREASE NOT NECESSARY
*MARCHIONNE SAYS ‘DOUBTS’ ON EUROPE CAR SALES RECOVERY
2014-10-02 09:19:20.272 GMT

--BRIAN LYSAGHT

-0- Oct/02/2014 09:19 GMT

(Citi) Philips - HealthTech Should drive re-rating

* Reiterate Buy, Raise TP to €33 — In this report we look in depth at HealthTech
and provide findings from our proprietary healthcare capex surveys. Philips is a key
Buy across our sector and is part of the Citi Focus List Europe. YTD Philips has
underperformed the market (DJSTOXX) by >6% on the back of significant
consensus downgrades (cut by 23% and 19% for 2014 and 2015 respectively). We
believe that Philips is at a cross roads and expect outperformance. Following the
announcement of a break-up into two companies by 2016: HealthTech, and Lighting
Solutions, we set our €33 target price at our SOTP fair value.

* Downgrades are Nearing the Bottom — Philips at their CMD has confirmed that
the first products from the Healthcare Cleveland factory are now being shipped (the
ramp up will be back-end loaded). The recent FX moves have become a tailwind for
the first time since 3Q 2013. Our proprietary US and European Hospital Capex
Surveys point to improved growth outlook and our China Healthcare analysts in
their recent report conclude that despite the near-term caution, hospital
procurement demand looks to remain solid and suppressed demand may drive an
improved market in 2015

* Health Tech — On our 2015E forecasts the HealthTech company should generate
pro-forma sales of €14.7bn and an Adj EBITA margin 14.6% (excluding central
costs) improving towards 15.5% by 2016E (the company is guiding for 14-15.5%)
including cumulative savings of €300m under the new structure. We think the
business merits a multiple of 12x EV/EBITA implying an EV of c.€25.7bn. The new
structure could realize a total EV of €29bn, implying substantial upside potential.

* Attractive Valuation — On our 2015 forecasts, Philips is trading on a P/E of 12.5x
and EV/EBIT of 9.2x vs. its 10-year historical averages of 14.5x and 12.0x
respectively. Relative to the sector Philips is trading on a >15% discount on P/E and
EV/EBIT basis. An EV/Sales of 1.0x also looks attractive against our 12% EBITA
margin forecast in 2016 (company guidance: 11-12%).

(GS) Africa Oil : Compelling opprtunity on M&A & Exploration - CL Buy (

* Source of opportunity
We reiterate our CL-Buy; our new 12m PT of SKr52.6 implies 66% upside.
Despite lowering our TP to reflect the most punitive CGT scenario on assets
we deem to be strategic, we continue to believe the stock offers a
compelling risk/reward opportunity on M&A and exploration potential,
particularly given its recent underperformance. We believe Africa Oil offers
exposure to a strategic asset which has potential to obtain a premium
valuation. In a M&A scenario; excluding exploration, we estimate 58%
upside to the current share price even when modelling a CGT. We also see a
number of funded & potentially material exploration catalysts approaching.

* Catalyst
We are positive on Africa Oil’s frontier exploration activities in Kenya which
have the potential to unlock a new basin, resulting in significant ‘blue sky’
upside potential (valuation based on fully de-risking one basin implies c.98%
upside). We expect a key driver for the stock will be exploration success in
one of these basins given that, on our estimates, no risked value is currently
being ascribed to it by the market. We expect four frontier basins to be tested
by end 1Q15: Central Kerio, North Kerio, West Omo and North Turkana.
Despite the introduction of capital gains tax, we believe M&A remains a key
catalyst for the stock, particularly given its funding requirement from mid-
2015. We continue to see a potential sale of the company, an asset disposal, a
farm-down or equity placing as potential options.

* Valuation
Our 12-month SOTP-based price target decreases to Skr52.6 (from Skr61.8),
using a long-run oil price assumption of $100/bl. Within our SOTP, our
valuations of assets we deem to be strategic in nature include a 50% weighing
for M&A. These valuations are lower now as we incorporate a 37.5% capital
gains tax in our M&A valuations and make other minor adjustments.

* Key risks
Key downside risks include exploration/appraisal failure and lack of M&A.

(BFW) Africa Oil a Compelling Opportunity on M&A, Exploration, GS Says

Africa Oil a Compelling Opportunity on M&A, Exploration, GS Says
2014-10-02 06:55:03.34 GMT


By James Cone
Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Offers exposure to a strategic asset
with potential to achieve premium valuation, Goldman Sachs says
in note dated Oct. 1, reiterates conviction list buy.
* GS: In M&A scenario, excl. exploration, sees 58% upside to
shrs even with re-introduction of capital gains tax in Kenya
on asset sales
* Can unlock significant upside potential from Kenya
exploration; says appears no risk value currently
ascribed by mkt
* Sees Central Kerio, North Kerio, West Omo and North
Turkana to be tested by end 1Q 2015
* Potential sale of co., asset disposal, farm-down, equity
placing all potential options
* Potential sale of co., asset disposal, farm-down, equity
placing all potential options</li></ul>
* Trims PT 15% to SEK 52.6

For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporter on this story:
James Cone in London at +44-20-7673-2572 or
jcone@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
James Ludden at +44-20-7673-2645 or
jludden@bloomberg.net

(GS) eBay : Raising price target on greater likelihood of M&A post spin-off

What's changed
On 9/30, eBay's Board of Directors approved a plan to separate eBay and
PayPal into independent publicly traded companies, which it expects to
complete in 2H15 subject to market and regulatory conditions. Reflecting
the increased likelihood of M&A for the proposed independent companies,
we incorporate an M&A component (weighted 15%) into our valuation. As
a result, our 12-month price target for eBay increases to $68 from $61,
implying 20% upside. We maintain our CL-Buy, given the relative
risk/reward we see in owning eBay based on our expectations that the
Marketplaces business recovers from the events of the past six months,
competitive fears for PayPal ease over the coming months, and the
potential for M&A drives a rerating of the combined company.

Implications
Management changes. Post the proposed separation, Devin Wenig, eBay
Marketplaces president, will become CEO of eBay. Dan Schulman, most
recently President of Enterprise Growth at American Express, has joined
PayPal as President and will become CEO. Current CEO John Donahoe and
CFO Bob Swan will oversee the separation and serve on one or both
boards. Estimates. We maintain our 2014-16 revenue estimates while we
lower adjusted EBITDA by 1% on average to reflect the likelihood of
incremental investment at PayPal.

Valuation
Our 12-month price target increases to $68 from $61 based on an 85%/15%
blend of our SOTP valuation of $63 (implying 10.7X 2015E EV/EBITDA) and
M&A valuation of $97 (Exhibit 3). We raise our M&A rank for the combined
company from 3 to 2 to reflect the potential strategic value of the business to
acquirers if the proposed separation is completed.

Key risks
(-): Competition, execution on proposed separation, take rate pressures,
investment needs.

>>> What to look at today - 2nd of October 2014

US Market closed lower, S&P crossed its 100d MA, disap. Eurozone PMI pushed mkt lower, Industrial closed lower by 1,4%, ebola effect pushed airlines names lower, Transport tumbled -2,5%, financials -1,2%, Energy outperformed -0,4%...Utilities closed +0,5%...volume were above average @ 845mil shares...VIX @ 16,71 +2,45%...US After Hours : AGU -4.5% following earnings/guidance...Market waiting for ECB today...Hong Kong-related uncertainty remains elevated, with China state media announcing the govt will "not give an inch" of compromise over the Occupy Central protest. Recall that some of the movement leaders have demanded for CY Leung to announce resignation by Thursday evening (local time), though the "or else" component of the "ultimatum" were not clear...Nikkei -2.70% Hang Seng Closed Shanghai closed

Eur$ 1.2647 S&P +0.08% EuroStoxx -0.41% FTSE -0.21% Dax -0.3% SMI -0.45%

Keep an eye on :
- ABBN VX : ABB CEO Says Could Move Swiss HQ After Immigration Vote: Bilanz {NSN NCS6ZB6S972S <go>}
- AFR LN : SAPetro( Nigerian Souoth atlantic petroleum) build a 3% stake, after news on no evidence of more unauthorised payment
- AIR FP : Airbus, Skymark in Talks on Contract Breach Payment: Nikkei
- AKE FP : EU to Probe Montebourg’s Aid to Arkema’s Kem One, Figaro Says
- AREVA FP : Areva to Supply Fuel to EDF's French Nuclear Fleet 2015-21
- BP/ LN : BP Must Face Lawsuits in U.S. by Foreign Investors, Judge Says
- ACA FP : Credit Agricole Has No Need to Create Proprietary Trading Unit
- BN FP : Good input price ANZ commodity survey in new zealand (Whole milk powder prices slipped 5 per cent, butter prices dropped 8 percent and cheese prices fell 3 per cent)
- ENEL IM : Enel CEO Andrea Brentan Resigns, Jose Damian Bogas new CEO
- ENI IM : Eni Accused of Paying +$500m in Bribes in Nigeria Deal: Reuters {http://bit.ly/Zsq9fk}
- HOT GY : Hochtief to Buy Back Up to 6.92m Shrs by End of 2015
- O2D GY : Telefonica Deutschland Pledges to Maintain Stable Prices: Bild
- ORA FP : Orange, Netflix Working on Distribution Agreement
- RKET GY : Rocket Internet Prices IPO at EU42.50/Shr, Top of Range
- RR/ LN : Rolls-Royce Very Confident 2014 Will Be Another Record Year
- RWE GY : RWE Searches for New Business Model, Handelsblatt Says
- SBRY LN : Qatar Fund Has GBP1.5b Loss on Sainsbury Stock Slide: Telegraph
- VOW3 GY : VW Delivered Record Number of Vehicles in Jan.-Sept. Period

>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 2nd of October 2014

>>> Up
*ABERDEEN ASSET MGMT RAISED TO HOLD VS UNDERPERFORM AT JEFFERIES
*DIALOG SEMI RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT BANKHAUS LAMPE (EARLIER)
*HARGREAVES LANSDOWN RAISED TO BUY VS ADD AT NUMIS
*HENDERSON RAISED TO HOLD VS REDUCE AT NUMIS
*IMA RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT EQUITA (YDAY)
*LVMH RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*POLAR CAPITAL RAISED TO ADD VS HOLD AT NUMIS; PT GBP490
*RICHEMONT RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*SWISS LIFE RAISED TO EQUALWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*TF1 RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*TRUWORTHS RAISED TO BUY AT RENAISSANCE CAPITAL; PT ZAR80

>>> Down
*DIRECT LINE CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*ORANGE POLSKA CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT ING
*SAINSBURY CUT TO UNDERPERFORM AT MACQUARIE
*SGS CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE
*TCS GROUP HOLDING CUT TO SELL VS HOLD AT DEUTSCHE; PT $4
*VOZROZHDENIE BANK CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT DEUTSCHE; PT RUB 420

>>> PT Change


>>> Initiation
*DECHRA PHARMA RATED NEW BUY AT JEFFERIES, PT 871P
*HALMA RATED NEW HOLD AT LIBERUM, PT 600P
*HUGO BOSS RATED NEW BUY AT JEFFERIES, PT EU11
*IPSEN RATED NEW OVERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*NOVO NORDISK RATED NEW EQUALWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY, PT DK301
*RTL GROUP RATED NEW BUY AT UBS, PT EU84.70
*VOSSLOH RATED BUY AT BERENBERG; WAS UNDER REVIEW

>>> Call
>> Stock
*ADP REMOVED FROM GOLDMAN CONVICTION SELL LIST, STAYS SELL
*FRAPORT REMOVED FROM GOLDMAN CONVICTION BUY LIST, STAYS BUY

>>> Afren, the oil and gas group, advanced 5.9p to 109.4, having reassured inves

Afren, the oil and gas group, advanced 5.9p to 109.4, having reassured investors after the close on Tuesday that an ongoing investigation into unauthorised payments had so far found no evidence of other similar transactions.
Nigerian explorer South Atlantic Petroleum (SAPetro) on Monday disclosed a shareholding in Afren, which spurred bid chatter. Deutsche Bank said the investigation update “will inevitably raise fresh questions on Afren’s vulnerability to a takeover, especially when one considers that SAPetro…has recently built a 3pc stake”.