>>> Gemalto -10% - Apple SIM is a Gemalto Killer ?

(TechCrunch) Apple Built A SIM Card That Lets You Switch Between AT&T, Sprint, A

Apple Built A SIM Card That Lets You Switch Between AT&T, Sprint, And T-Mobile

Whoaaa — here’s an interesting bit that went unmentioned in today’s Apple announcement: Apple has seemingly built a SIM card that lets you jump between AT&T, Sprint, and T-Mobile without having to swap it out (or, more annoyingly, track down/purchase a new SIM card when you want to switch carriers). Instead of swapping the card, you just pick a new carrier through the device’s on screen settings. As it should be!
Tucked into a page about the iPad Air 2’s wireless connectivity, Apple calls the new SIM — aptly — “Apple SIM.”
As they describe it:
The Apple SIM gives you the flexibility to choose from a variety of short-term plans from select carriers in the U.S. and UK right on your iPad. So whenever you need it, you can choose the plan that works best for you — with no long-term commitments. And when you travel, you may also be able to choose a data plan from a local carrier for the duration of your trip.
The Apple SIM doesn’t seem to be something you can buy separately for now (I’d totally buy one for my older iPad Mini), but it comes out of the box in the cell-enabled iPad Air 2.
This one SIM is currently compatible with AT&T, Sprint and T-Mobile in the U.S., and EE in the UK. That list will presumably expand in time, as carriers realize that not being one of the available options is probably bad for business.

(GS) Oil : Long-term surpluses create near-term shortages

Near-term constructive despite being longer-term bearish

* Oil price decline is too much too soon
The recent sell-off in oil has been mostly driven by positioning based upon expected fundamental shifts as opposed to currently observable shifts. While looking into 2015 we have sympathy for these medium- to longerterm bearish views that have driven prices lower, we believe it is too much too early. Prices have also likely overshot to the downside particularly as the lower we go the tighter the near-term balances become. This leaves us near-term constructive despite being bearish as we look further out.

* Pricing a future surplus in commodities can be self-negating
Unlike financial markets which are anticipatory assets driven by expectations, commodities are spot assets, clearing today’s supply and demand. The “supply glut” is not yet here today, it exists in expectations. While we mostly agree, these expectations have created more of a sell-off in deferred prices without the usual decline in timespreads into a level of “full carry” that is required to incentivize storage of the surplus. In fact, what we have witnessed is the exact opposite with key markets in a level of backwardation which incentivizes the market to pull oil from storage, not
store it. Thus, pricing in the future can be self-negating. We estimate that for every 10% decline in oil prices, oil demand rises 0.15%; hence, price pressure from long-term surpluses can create near-term shortages.

* Net specs and negative gamma exacerbate move lower
We estimate that net specs have priced in a 300 million barrel build between now and the end of March, which is a 2.0 million b/d surplus. While potentially possible, it would require solid delivery from Libya, Iraq/Kurdistan and Brazil. The net spec selling ultimately moved prices into a region where many producers’ puts had been struck, increasing the
selling of oil futures by non-commercial traders as they manage the risk incurred from producer hedging programs in a falling price environment.

* US shale is the marginal swing barrel in the new oil order
Game theory suggests that Saudi Arabia should no longer be the sole first mover swing barrel as shale is extremely scalable both to the up and downside. Should the glut materialize to the extreme expected, we believe the shale barrel will need to balance the market, which would suggest WTI prices sub-$80/bbl for a period of time to create an adjustment in supply.

>>> BOE Chief Economist Haldane: Recent economic data favors a later BOE rate hi

BOE Chief Economist Haldane: Recent economic data favors a later BOE rate hike 
- Gloomier on economic outlook than 3 months ago due to slower global growth and greater political and financial risks
- Rates could stay lower longer without CPI risk
- Growth is well balance between consumption and investment
- There are some signs of labor shortages but wage data remains very weak especially for the middle and low income earners
- Due to uncertainty, best policy course may be to avoid risk of secular stagnation

(BN) *ILUKA CONFIRMS IT IS ENGAGED IN TALKS WITH KENMARE

BN 10/17 06:36 *ILUKA SAYS NO CERTAINTY ANY TRANSACTION WILL BE PROGRESSED
BN 10/17 06:35 *ILUKA NOTES ANNOUNCEMENT BY KENMARE
*ILUKA CONFIRMS IT IS ENGAGED IN TALKS WITH KENMARE
2014-10-17 06:35:36.81 GMT



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>>> Lundin (LUPE SS) : Drills dry well in Vollgrav South exploration in North Se

Drills dry well in Vollgrav South exploration in North Sea 

Lundin has completed the drilling of wildcat well 33/12-10 S. The well investigated the hydrocarbon potential of the Vollgrav South prospect in PL631, which is located 150 km west of Floron the Norwegian west coast and between the Gullfaks and Statfjord fields. 

The main objective of well 33/12-10 S was to test the reservoir properties and hydrocarbon potential of the Upper Jurassic Sandstones equivalent to the reservoir in the Borg Field. 

The well encountered no hydrocarbons and is being plugged and abandoned as a dry hole.

The license was awarded in APA 2011 and the well is the first exploration well in PL631.

(BofA-ML) Flow Show : European capitulation: biggest outflows from EU equities e

FLOW SHOW: Equity stabilization ($2bn of redemptions) after big risk-off flows past 2 weeks ($23bn redemptions). European capitulation: biggest outflows from EU equities ever ($5.7bn). Quality king: Treasury & IG bond funds big winners; HY, floating-rate debt and EM equities extend outflow streak. Stat of the Day: global stock market cap loss since Sep highs = $4.85trn = greater than GDP of NY, London & Tokyo (it's been a bad month for income inequality)

(GS) Europe : Media : Advertising

Agency Account Action: Sept moves highlight importance of scale

*New business activity slows in September
New businesses slipped in Sept to $0.8 bn, down from $1.3 bn in Aug and below the ytd average of $1.0 bn. Major agencies performed well with all in positive territory as new business came at the expense of independents. We see this supportive of our view on the importance of scale.

* WPP/PUB slow but stay positive; HAV regains some momentum
WPP delivered its 15th consecutive month of positive new business, a significant accomplishment, but momentum slowed having topped our table the last two months. Overall, September remained solid on several mid-sized wins including creative accounts for Dove Men+Care ($40 mn) and Lean Cuisine ($21 mn). Publicis also slowed after a strong August but remained in positive territory and started October well with the retention of Samsung. Notable wins include creative for Sands China ($50 mn) and global media buying for AirBnB ($50 mn). Havas, coming off three months of small losses, regained some momentum with a few small wins.

* Dentsu tops table; solid performances for Omnicom and IPG
Dentsu performed well, topping the table in its debut in our scorecard off a broad base of small wins. OMC performed well winning creative for Miller Lite ($110 mn) and Wild Wings ($40 mn). IPG also had a good month adding creative and media for Office Depot ($105 mn).

* 3Q preview: Lowering organic to reflect new GS GDP forecasts
We lower our average 3Q organic growth expectation for the EU agencies from 3.6% to 2.9% following recent revisions GS GDP forecasts in Europe, US, and China. Overall, we forecast sector organic growth to slow from 3.8% in 1H to 2.9% in 2H with FY falling from 4.0% to 3.4%. We expect Havas to lead 3Q with organic of 4.7%, WPP at 3.0%, and Publicis lagging at 1.0%. Despite lower organic, our 2014/15 EPS estimates rise by an average of 1% given better FX (all) and higher M&A growth (WPP).

* Reiterate CL-Buy on WPP; attractive entry point to quality asset
With shares down 13% in a month, we see this as an attractive entry point. WPP ranks Q1 in our IP framework given digital exposure and economies of scale. It trades at a 13% sector discount despite faster EPS growth (12% vs. 11%) and has 35% exposure to relatively healthy US ad markets.

(BFW) Rolls-Royce Cuts FY Underlying Rev. Forecast

Rolls-Royce Cuts FY Underlying Rev. Forecast
2014-10-17 06:08:49.436 GMT


By Brian Lysaght
Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Rolls-Royce says economic conditions
have deteriorated, customers delayed, canceled orders.
* FY underlying revenue in ’14 to fall 3.5%-4%
* Had seen fy underlying revenue flat
* Sticks to underlying profit guidance
* Is studying restructuring, rationalisation


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(UBS) Red October : Crash Or Correction

* Not justified by fundamentals
We do not think the current market sell-off is justified by fundamentals. We think the recent weakness in European data is temporary and that the growth trajectory in the US remains intact. We note that global leading indicators have not declined significantly and are consistent with our growth forecasts.

* Positioning – technical
US retail sales has never before produced a 30bp swing in Treasury yields, as happened Wednesday. That's a pretty good indication that market technicals (e.g. hedging) are the dominant driver of the big moves. With the bond rally and the equity sell-off we would now need a 29% downward revision of US EPS estimates to take the equity risk premium back in line with its long-term average (40% in Europe). This, too, seems excessive.

* The key risk: self-fulfilling market move
The market move is not consistent with fundamentals. But a market move could impact fundamentals. A key space to watch is credit. We have written regularly about the fact that pricing in credit is rich, hence the potential for a correction. We have also written abundantly about the fact that illiquidity in the market is a key risk. A crash in credit (not our central case scenario) would be bad for growth. Watch credit--that remains the weakest link.