>>> Japan PM Abe likely to delay second round of planned sales-tax increases - f

Japan PM Abe likely to delay second round of planned sales-tax increases - financial press 

Recent commentary on the planned sales tax hike:
- On Nov 10th Fin Min Aso reiterated decision on sales tax hike depended on economy 
- On Nov 10th Approx 50% of polled respondents in Japan call for postponement of sales tax hike 
- On Nov 7th Reports circualted that Japan PM Abe was still mulling extra budget to support the economy, continue to examine July-Sept economic data. If a second sales tax increase was implemented, policy must avoid hurting the recovery
- On Nov 6th Fin Min Aso: Govt should raise sales tax again next year as scheduled 
- On Nov 4th Japan Govt advisory panel member Ito: Delay in increasing Japan sales tax would have big political costs (Japan Econ Min Amari: Ito and Kato believe that planned sales tax hike could remain on course while Hamada and Ogiue believe that sales tax hike should be postponed)
- On Nov 3rd New Komeito (coalition) policy Chief Ishii: Raising Japan's sales tax to 10% as planned would be best- On Oct 21st Japan PM Abe advisor Honda reiterated his view that planned sales tax increase should be delayed until Apr 2017 as it could pose major risk to the economy
- On Oct 21st reports circulated that Japan was considering stimulus regardless of decision on taxes
- On Oct 19th reports circulated that Japan PM Abe was hinting at delaying sales tax increase as sales tax increase would be meaningless if it damages the domestic economy were too much.
- On Oct 8th Japan LDP ruling party lawmaker noted that the next phase of the sales tax hike should be put off to Apr 2017, proceeding as planned would ruin Abenomics
- On Oct 7th BOJ Gov Kuroda noted that the virtuous cycle of economic activity continued to operate firmly. Sales tax impact on consumption was easing expect in auto and durable sectors
- On Oct 2nd Japan PM Abe stated that it was true that April sales tax increase led to 7.1% contraction in Apr-June GDP 
- On Oct 1st Japan PM Abe: Raising sales-tax would maintain confidence in Japan but must watch effect of sales tax rise on the economy 
- On Sept 8th Japan PM advisor Honda: Would be a mistake to raise sales tax in the spring of 2015
- On Sept 8th Japan Govt advisor Hamada: Raising sales tax by 1% /year was an option as was delaying the next phase of tax hike by a year
- On Sept 5th Japan Econ Amari: Japan PM Abe would be more cautious than before on sale-tax increase decision 
- On Sept 1st Report circulated that BoJ officials saw PM Abe raising sales tax as planned next year in order to maintain confidence in govt's finances. BoJ officials would be ready to boost stimulus after tax hike
- On Sept 1st govt advisor Honda: Next phase of planned sales tax increase should be delayed into 2017 as prior April hike hit the economy harder than expected

(BFW) Vodafone Estimates Raised at Goldman After Broad-Based 2Q Beat


Vodafone Estimates Raised at Goldman After Broad-Based 2Q Beat
2014-11-11 07:45:55.844 GMT


By Sam Chambers
Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Vodafone’s 2Q organic service rev.
improvement was broad, with Italy, Spain and Turkey seeing
greatest sequential improvements, Goldman says.
* 2Q results were boosted by lower competitive intensity in
Italy and early signs of monetizing 4G
* KPIs are solid in major mkts, with co. reporting positive
contract net adds in Spain for first time since 2011 and net
adds also rebounding in Germany
* Raises FY Ebitda est. 1% to GBP11.85b and FY16 est +2%
* Boosts PT by 4% to 240p; reiterates neutral rating due to
belief that sustainable growth in European mobile is only
achievable with broad sector consolidation
* NOTE: Shrs closed at a 4-year low on Oct. 16 and have since
risen 13%: Bloomberg data


For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporter on this story:
Sam Chambers in London at +44-20-7673-2021 or
schambers7@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
James Ludden at +44-20-7673-2645 or
jludden@bloomberg.net
Andrew Rummer

(UBS) Strategy : Upgrade Commercial Services and General Retail, dwg Pharma

>>> Outlook for 2015: Goldilocks or the Three Bears?
* What's our view? 13% potential upside to end-2015
A modest pick-up in European GDP growth, the Euro at 1.20 and operational leverage should be enough
to drive 10% earnings growth in 2015 and 9% in 2016. Our fair value P/E multiple is 14.5x – just 7%
above the long-run average, but clearly on depressed earnings. This points to a fair value of 380 on the
Stoxx 600 by end-2015: some 13% upside. We launch an Interactive model with inputs for the macro
drivers and FX impact on earnings. If investors disagree with our inputs, they can change them.
* Scenario analysis: "Goldilocks" or "Triple-Dip Recession"?
"Goldilocks" is a surprise pick-up in European growth and acceleration in the US. But investors are
focusing on downside risks: a significant shock could push Europe into a "Triple-Dip Recession". We
view this as unlikely but in this scenario we see European equities down 30%. Our Quant team looks at
historical volatility to show implied price range. The "Triple-Dip" scenario is close to a 2-standarddeviation
event.
* Upgrade Commercial Services and General Retail
We upgrade Commercial Services to Overweight from Underweight as the sector's P/E relatives are close
to 10-year lows, the dividend yield relative is just coming off 10-year highs and earnings momentum has
turned. We take General Retail up to Neutral as a beneficiary of low rates and low oil. Our other
Overweight sectors: Banks, Luxury Goods, Tech Hardware, Media and Cap Goods. Favoured stocks
include ING, Soc Gen, Alstom, Richemont, Adecco, Marks & Spencer, Fresenius Medical, BSkyB, ITV and
Alcatel-Lucent (full table on page 5).
* Downgrade Pharma to Underweight
We take Pharma down to Underweight after significant outperformance (55% relative since 2012 and
the best performer YTD). The vast bulk of this has come from re-rating rather than earnings, which has
left relative valuations looking stretched: the P/E relative is at a 6-year high, the dividend yield at a c20%
discount to the market, and Pharma is now the most expensive major sector on PEG. The high inverse
correlation to the PMIs suggests underperformance if there is any macro recovery.


>>> Outlook 2015 – Five peak crisis gaps left to invest in
* Five peak crisis gaps remain & shout 'no growth for Europe'. We invest in them
1. The real yield gap today (bonds vs equities) is 90% of its crisis peak; 2. Cyclical performance is c. 5%
away from the 09 lows; 3. US has outperformed Europe by 45% since 07 and is valued at a 30 year
record premium to Europe; 4. US & European profit gap still at record high (fig 1); and 5. Troubled
sectors in Europe are still near trough (to history & many US peers). We think Europe gets back to its
2007 profits by end 2016 (c. 10% a year) and if so it trades on 10.5x PE. See roadmap for this: page 27.
* Europe improving: five changes: Banks, Credit, Euro, Oil/Consumer & Margins
1. Banks: AQR done, balance sheets better by > €200bn and TLTRO offers a MIN €400bn at 15bps for 4
years contingent on lending; 2. ECB credit survey best in 7 years; 3. Lower oil: Eurozone wins & real
wage growth at 5 year high; 4. A weaker Euro supports revenues; and 5. Margins are starting to turn
up. Five Changes: page 19.
* BUY Gap: Europe vs US. Gap starting to look beyond bizarre (pages 9-15)
We are 50% behind the US in the race back to (or beyond!) last cycle's peak profits. Sadly only 30% of
the gap to the US is due to sector composition (more Tech in US); 70% is due to lower ROE for European
Sectors vs US peers, Euro, etc. Some SECTORS responsible: Technology, Transport, Food Retail, Telecoms,
Autos, Media, Utilities, Energy, Diversified Financial, Real-estate & more. If we put Europe & US earnings
both back to 07 profits (closely aligned in past): European PE sits on 10.5x and US on 20.5x.
* Buy Gap: 43 ROE recovery plays & 30 Cyclicals that combined yield 4.9%
Profits down and no one believes in growth. So buy 1) where ROE still depressed & cheaper than
local/US peers (fig 2) includes: TOTAL, BBVA, Randstad, M&S, SocGen; and 2) Cyclicals with dividends:
Swedbank, CRH, HSBC, M&S, Amec, Michelin & more.


>>> European Pharmaceuticals - UBS Strategy downgrades Pharma to Underweight
* Downgrade to underweight based on macro
The UBS strategy team downgrades Pharma to underweight based on (1) the large outperformance of
Pharma in the last 3 years, (2) significant multiple expansion, (3) high valuation – especially the 20-30%
premium to the market and a dividend yield now at a discount to the market, (4) high inverse correlation
to the macro cycle (detailed rationale included in this note). We agree with all those points, especially the
last point. It seems very clear that in case of a significant recovery, the Pharma sector should most likely
underperform.
* However, valuations do not look stretched to us
Our bottom up fundamental view on the sector remains constructive: specifically, we expect several
companies to return to (near) double digit earnings growth, driven by a new innovation cycle, but also
smart restructuring & acquisitions. Valuations seem high looking at recent years, though a 5-6 year
horizon may be insufficient to gauge Pharma relative valuation to the overall market. The current market
premium of the sector is finally back to the period prior to 2009, before the sector moved towards the
patent cliff. Despite significant earnings downgrades for some companies (especially GSK, Sanofi) our
average projected earnings growth for the sector overall has increased from 7% to 8% since January
2014, with potential further upside from pipelines.
* Divergence of fortunes
During 2014, we have a big divergence in earnings growth expectations within the large cap sector. In
January, we projected (near) double digit earnings growth for Novo and Bayer, and mid-single digit for
the remaining universe. Since then, Novartis and Roche have joined the (near-) double digit club,
whereas GSK and Sanofi's earnings growth prospect have dropped to a low single digit level with
uncertainty to the downside. This divergence is still not reflected in the multiples.
* We remain Buyers of Novartis, Roche, Bayer, and AZN
In case of a recovery, we would keep the stars and preferentially reduce the companies with low and
uncertain earnings outlook.

>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 11th of November 2014

>>> Up
*BARRY CALLEBAUT RAISED TO NEUTRAL AT SAFRA SARASIN
*BANCO SABADELL RAISED TO BUY VS REDUCE AT NOMURA
*BBVA RAISED TO BUY VS REDUCE AT NOMURA
*BETFAIR RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*CAIXABANK CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT NOMURA
*CRODA RAISED TO ADD FROM HOLD AT NUMIS
*KINNEVIK RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI
*MAN GROUP RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*MARINE HARVEST RAISED TO STRONG BUY AT NORDEA
*MERLIN ENTERTAINMENTS RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT NOMURA
*PEUGEOT REMOVED FROM CONVICTION LIST AT GOLDMAN, STAYS BUY
*PIRELLI UPGRADED TO BUY FROM NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN SACHS

>>> Down
*ALLIANZ CUT TO MARKET PERFORM AT KEEFE BRUYETTE: PT EU150
*ARCELORMITTAL CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT CITI
*FAURECIA DOWNGRADED TO NEUTRAL FROM BUY AT GOLDMAN SACHS
*ROTORK CUT TO NEUTRAL FROM BUY AT GOLDMAN
*SULZER CUT TO NEUTRAL FROM BUY AT GOLDMAN
*TELE2 CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*VOLVO DOWNGRADED TO SELL FROM NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN SACHS


>>> PT Changes


>>> Initiation
*ABB RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT JEFFERIES
*AB FOODS RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT RBC, PT 3,300P
*ASOS RATED NEW SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC, PT 2,900P
*ASSA ABLOY RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT JEFFERIES, PT SEK325
*ATLAS COPCO RATED NEW BUY AT JEFFERIES
*DEBENHAMS RATED NEW SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC CAPITAL; PT 70P
*DIXONS CARPHONE PLC RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT RBC; PT 460P
*DUNELM GROUP RATED NEW SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC CAPITAL; PT 900P
*FIAT CHRYSLER RATED NEW BUY AT GOLDMAN, JOINS CONVICTION LIST
*GEA GROUP RATED NEW BUY AT JEFFERIES, PT EU42
*HOME RETAIL RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT RBC, PT 175P
*HUGO BOSS RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT RBC CAPITAL; PT EU120
*KERRY GROUP RATED NEW BUY AT UBS, PT EU60
*LEGRAND RATED NEW HOLD AT JEFFERIES, PT EU44
*MARKS & SPENCER RATED NEW SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC, PT 500P
*NEXT RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT RBC, PT 6,000P
*OSRAM LICHT RATED NEW BUY AT JEFFERIES, PT EU35
*PHILIPS RATED NEW HOLD AT JEFFERIES, PT EU22
*ROCKET INTERNET RATED NEW BUY AT BERENBERG
*ROCKET INTERNET RATED NEW NEUTRAL AT CITI, PT EU50
*SANDVIK RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT JEFFERIES
*SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT JEFFERIES
*SIEMENS RATED NEW BUY AT JEFFERIES, PT EU100
*SKF RATED NEW HOLD AT JEFFERIES
*SPORTS DIRECT RATED NEW SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC, PT 700P
*STOCK SPIRITS RATED NEW BUY AT NUMIS, PT 315P
*SUPERGROUP RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT RBC CAPITAL
*VOLVO RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT JEFFERIES, PT SEK70
*WH SMITH RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT RBC, PT 1,350P


>>> Call
>> Stock
*FIAT CHRYSLER RATED NEW BUY AT GOLDMAN, JOINS CONVICTION LIST
*PEUGEOT REMOVED FROM CONVICTION LIST AT GOLDMAN, STAYS BUY
>> Sector
*EUROPEAN AUTOMOBILES CUT TO NEUTRAL FROM ATTRACTIVE AT GOLDMAN
*EUROPEAN PHARMA SECTOR CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT AT UBS
*EUROPEAN COMMERCIAL SERVICES SECTOR UPGRADED TO O/W AT UBS

>>> What to look at todat - 11th of November 2014

US MArket closed higher leaded by smallcap, sentiment was helped by shanghai performance after the confirmation of the Shanghai- Hong Kong exchange link will begin operating on Nov.17. Dean Foods (DF) +13,7% after better numbers & guidance... The discretionary sector was sent to lows during morning action after President Obama said the Federal Communications Commission should regulate the internet like a utility. The news pressured internet service providers with Charter Communications (CHTR 146.62, -9.75), Comcast (CMCSA 52.95, -2.20), and Time Warner Cable (TWC 136.50, -7.10) losing between 4.0% and 6.2%...the energy sector started in the lead, but slid to the bottom of the leaderboard with crude oil adding pressure. The energy component fell 1.4% to $77.26/bbl. Greenback strength presented a headwind with the Dollar Index (87.81, +0.16) erasing its overnight loss to end higher by 0.2%...volume were in line with average @ 700mil shares...VIX @ 12,67 -3,43%...US After Hours : MODN +14.5%, LLNW +12%, RAX +3.7%, ERII -19.7%, CALL-11.3%, CZR -5.4% following earnings/guidance...- Fed's Rosengren spoke after the US market close, reiterating his preference for the FOMC to remain patient with tightening until inflation gets closer to 2%. Note that Boston's Rosengren is one of the more dovish Fed presidents and not a voting member on the FOMC. ...Shanghai hit fresh 3y high before reversing move (Exchange link, strong retail activity, US & China ITA covered good)..Nikkei +2.05%...Hang Seng +0.29% Shanghai +0.08%


Eur$ 1.2427 S&P +0.10% EuroStoxx +0.23% FTSE +0.13% DAX +0.21% SMI +0.27%

Macro :
- ECB’s Mersch Says ABS Purchases Will Commence in One Week
- Fed’s Fisher Says Rates May Reverse Before Summer: Handelsblatt
- Japan Oct. Preliminary Machine Tool Orders Y/Y 31.2% (5 month low) vs 34.7% Prior

Keep an eye on :
- AIR FP : Airbus Says Delivered 125 Planes in First 10 Months to China
- ARL GY : Aareal Bank 3Q Oper Profit Rises 38%; Raises Profit Outlook
- BALNE NA : Ballast Nedam Gets Indicative Bids for Offshore Activities
- BBED NA : Breedinvest Has 22% Stake in Beter Bed, Regulatory Filing Shows
- CU FP : Club Med likely to receive EUR 23-per-share counteroffer offer from Investindustrial and KKR in next few hours
- DIC GR : DIC Asset Still 3Q Net EU2.1m vs EU4.1m; Sticks to Outlook
- ELE SM : Planning to extend life of nuclear plants to 50-years - Spanish Press
- EBK GR : EnBW 9M Adj. Ebitda Falls 10% on Power Prices; Confirms Outlook
- EO FP : Faurecia Refinances Bank Debt, Is Assigned Bb- Rating at Fitch, Faurecia Sees Chinese Revenue Exceeding EU4 Billion in 2018
- FCC SM : Said to have asked lenders to take 15% loss on €1.35B loan
- FUR NA : Boskalis Increases Stake in Fugro to 15.0%, No Plan to Bid
- GTK IM : Gtech 3Q Ebitda Beats Ests., Should ‘Comfortably’ Meet Forecast
- HEN3 GY : Henkel 3Q Adj. Ebit Beats Ests., Raises 2014 Margin Forecast
- HOT GY : Hochtief Confirms Guidance, Sees FY Net Profit of EU225m-EU250m
- ISP IM : Intesa’s Banca IMI 3Q Net EU58.5m Vs EU119.7m Yr Earlier
- KGX GY : Kion Shares Said to Be Offered at EU29.10 to Market Price
- NRSU DC : Spar Nord Offers DKK425/Shr to Gain Control of Noerresundby Bank
- NUO NA : *SHV INCREASES STAKE IN NUTRECO ISSUED SHARE CAPITAL TO 14.7%
- ORC FP : Orco Property CEO Tomas Salajka, Chairman Radovan Vitek Resign
- ORC FP : Orco Raised EU59,2m in Capital Increase.
- PTC PL : Portugal Telecom: Isabel dos Santos will have to revise EUR-1.21bn offer
- SAN FP : Sanofi, Regeneron See Positive Results in Phase 2b Asthma Study
- STM FP : STMicroelectronics Completes $156m Share Buyback Program
- SPSN SW : Swiss Prime Site 9-Month Ebitda CHF336m vs CHF440m
- TEF SM : Telefonica Sells China Unicom Shares for About EU687M
- TIT IM : American Tower May Bid for Tim Brazil Phone Assets: Sole
- VPK NA : Vopak 3Q Ebit Ex-Items EU142m Versus EU132m; Raises Outlook

FT Fast : Japanese outlook on economy is deteriorating

This is the sort of news that will make it difficult for Japanese policymakers to lift the sales tax as planned next year.

The Cabinet Office's Economy Watchers Survey fell from 47.4 in September to 44.0 last month.

The figure, which is based on surveying 2,000 individuals who are in key positions to observe economic changes, was only anticipated to fall marginally to 47.2.

Moreover, respondents' outlook deteriorated from 48.7 to 46.6. Any score below 50 means pessimists outnumber optimists.

October's score is the lowest since April, suggesting that the economic downturn since April - when Japan raised the sales tax from 5 to 8 per cent, causing consumers to become thrifty - is becoming more prolonged than policymakers had anticipated.

The government is supposed to decide next month to go ahead with a second tax increase in October 2015, but with the economy this gloomy that looks less and less likely.

The economy watchers' survey was published just an hour after the Cabinet Office's consumer confidence survey slipped from 40.5 to 38.9 - also the lowest since April.

However, there's one key reason why one could discount the results of both surveys: each was conducted before the Bank of Japan ramped up its monetary stimulus programme on Oct. 31. If there are signs the stimulus is aiding the economy, the Abe government could be feel more confident to raise taxes.

>>> Portugal Telecom: Isabel dos Santos will have to revise EUR-1.21bn offer

Portugal Telecom: Isabel dos Santos will have to revise EUR-1.21bn offer

Isabel dos Santos will have to revise her EUR 1.21bn takeover bid on Portugal Telecom (PT) if the operation is to succeed, reported Diario Economico. Sources familiar with the situation told the Lusophone business daily that most Lisbon analysts believe dos Santos' EUR 1.35 a share bid on PT has two main hurdles to its success.

The key stumbling blocks to the PT bid by the Angolan private investor are the refusal by the Brazilian telco Oi to alter the conditions of its merger with PT and the low price of the dos Santos bid, analysts said, which will likely be rejected by PT shareholders. The PT board meets on either 14 or 17 November to discuss the dos Santos bid and has eight days from Monday 10 November to pronounce on the offer.

Elsewhere, Diario de Noticias cited a representative of dos Santos as saying the Angolan businesswoman's main objective is to become a minority shareholder in Oi and maintain the unity of PT at the same time. Dos Santos, daughter of Angolan leader Jose Eduardo dos Santos, wants to save PT rather than see it broken up. The surprise dos Santos offer for PT is likely to prevent Oi divesting its Portuguese operations, called PT Portugal. Altice made a EUR 7.025bn cash offer last week for PT Portugal.

Meanwhile, Jornal de Negocios quoted sources familiar with the situation as saying Altice remains confident that the dos Santos bid on PT will not affect its offer on PT Portugal. Apax Partners, the UK private equity firm, met last week with Portuguese investors in PT Portugal and could make a firm bid in the coming days, the sources said.


Source Diario Economico, Diario de Noticias, Jornal de Negocios

>>> Asian Update

Asian Market Update: Shanghai Composite tops 2,500 for a 3-year high ***Economic Data*** - (AU) AUSTRALIA OCT NAB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 4 V 5 PRIOR; CONDITIONS: 13 (6-year high) V 1 PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA Q3 HOUSE PRICE INDEX Q/Q: 1.5% V 1.5%E; Y/Y: 9.1% V 8.8%E - (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 114.8 v 114.6 prior - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND OCT TOTAL CARD SPENDING M/M: +1.5% V 0.0% PRIOR; RETAIL SPENDING M/M: 1.0% V 0.5%E - (JP) JAPAN SEPT BOP CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE: ¥963B V ¥538BE; BOP ADJUSTED CURRENT ACCOUNT ¥414B (15-month high) V ¥37BE; TRADE BALANCE BOP BASIS: -¥715B V - ¥783BE - (JP) JAPAN OCT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 38.9 V 39.9 PRIOR (3rd straight monthly decline) - (JP) JAPAN OCT BANK LENDING INCL TRUSTS: 2.4% (5-year high) V 2.3% PRIOR; BANK LENDING EX-TRUSTS: 2.5% V 2.3%E

***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)*** - Nikkei225 +0.8%, S&P/ASX -0.3%, Kospi +0.3%, Shanghai Composite +1.4%, Hang Seng +0.5%, Dec S&P500 flat at 2,034

***Commodities/Fixed Income*** - Dec gold -0.5% at $1,154, Dec crude oil -0.2% at $77.24/brl - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 1.8 tonnes to 725.4 tonnes; Lowest level since Sept 2008 - JGB: (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥553B in 1.7% (1.7% prior) 30-yr notes; Avg yield: 1.483% v 1.633% prior; Bid to cover: 3.02x v 2.59x prior - (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$150M in 2035 indexed Bonds; avg yield: 1.4194%; bid-to-cover: 4.44x - (CN) PBoC to drain CNY20B in 14-day repos (29th consecutive drain)

***Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX*** - Shanghai Composite hit fresh 3-year highs above 2,500, as positive momentum from Hong Kong trading link and strong retail activity during Singles Day offers further tail wind to the mainland index. APEC summit proceedings in Beijing also remain cordial - US and China reach understanding to expand scope of ITA covered goods, and even contentious leaders of US and Russia were reported to have exchanged pleasantries. China Pres Xi also continued to play host, calling on APEC nations to work closer together to handle global challenges.

- Economic data was particularly heavy out of Australia, with the most notable report out of NAB showing Conditions index rising to a 6 year high. Of note, the conditions component of the report dipped below Confidence for the first time since 2012, "suggesting firms remain uncertain over near-term demand in their industry."

- Out of Hong Kong, chief sec Lam reiterated the govt will not negotiate with students, urging Occupy Central leadership to end the standoff. Lam added Hong Kong police is preparing to enforce the court injunction on the protest.

- Fed's Rosengren spoke after the US market close, reiterating his preference for the FOMC to remain patient with tightening until inflation gets closer to 2%. Note that Boston's Rosengren is one of the more dovish Fed presidents and not a voting member on the FOMC.

- FX trading is generally quiet though USD/JPY is pushing toward its 7-year highs in the afternoon session, rising about 60pips from the lows above 115.20. AUD/USD got a brief lift on strong NAB data, but erased those gains as USD remains supported by rising US yields.

***Equities*** US markets: - RAX: Reports Q3 $0.18 v $0.16e, R$460M v $459Me; authorized $500M shares buyback program (9.3% of shares outstanding); +3.9% afterhours - BIDU: Xiaomi said to invest $300M in Baidu's video streaming unit iQiyi - Chinese press; flat afterhours - JBHT: Guides 2014 revenue +10% y/y (implies $6.14B v $6.19Be), 2015 revenue +9-12% y/y; flat afterhours - LOCK: Discloses prior financial statements can no longer be relied upon - filing; -5.4% afterhours - CZR: Reports Q3 -$6.29 (unclear if comparable) v -$1.68e, R$2.21B v $2.26Be, Names Eric Hession CFO, effective Jan 1; -7.3% afterhours

Notable movers by sector: - Financials: Bank of China 601988.CN +10.1%, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank 600000.CN +4.3%, ICBC 601398.CN +4.4% (momentum from Shanghai-Hong Kong trading link) - Materials: Regis Resources RRL.AU -4.7% (analyst action) - Industrials: Incitec Pivot Ltd +5.0% (prelim FY14 results); Bridgestone Corp 5108.JP -2.2% (9-month results); Hyundai Motor 005380.KR +7.0% (to buy back treasury shares) - Telecom: China Unicom 762.HK -2.6% (Telefonica to sell shares)

(BN) Goldman Partners Profit From Private Funds That Charge No Fees


Goldman Partners Profit From Private Funds That Charge No Fees
2014-11-11 06:00:17.196 GMT


By Michael J. Moore
Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Of all the perks bestowed on those
selected as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. partners this week, the
most uncommon may be access to a private fund named for a street
that stretches two blocks at the southern tip of Manhattan.
Goldman Sachs has brought back Bridge Street funds, which
allow senior employees to invest alongside the bank in closely
held companies without having to pay fees. First offered when
the firm was a true partnership before going public in 1999,
Bridge Street was restarted in 2011. This year’s fund raised
more than $120 million from about half of the 400 partners.
Employee private-equity funds are one of the extras that
make rewards at Goldman Sachs the envy of Wall Street. Chief
Executive Officer Lloyd C. Blankfein received $125.9 million
from the funds in the past five years, more than he was awarded
in salary and bonuses over the same period, filings show.
“It’s consistent with Goldman’s past DNA and the DNA they
want to have going forward,” said Alan Johnson, founder of New
York-based compensation-consulting firm Johnson Associates Inc.
“The big banks are no longer the pay leaders, no longer the
masters of the universe, so they’ve got to be more creative.”
Andrea Raphael, a spokeswoman for Goldman Sachs, declined
to comment on the funds.
Goldman Sachs offered Bridge Street funds until 2000,
before dropping that model in favor of allowing employees to
invest in specific private-equity and debt funds it raised for
clients, such as the $20 billion GS Capital Partners VI in 2007.
The opportunity, which in some years attracted more than $1
billion, encouraged employee retention and was a built-in
seeding method for new ventures.

Volcker Rule

The bank didn’t offer employees any funds in 2009 and 2010
in the wake of the financial crisis and amid criticism of Wall
Street compensation practices.
The Volcker Rule -- passed as part of the 2010 Dodd-Frank
Act -- limited the amount of money banks could put into their
private-equity funds. As Goldman Sachs replaced stakes in funds
with investments in companies made solely with its own money, it
went back to the standalone employee funds.
This year, the New York-based bank also reactivated Stone
Street, a fund offered to the firm’s more than 2,000 managing
directors, those employees one rung below the ceremonial title
of partner. That fund raised at least $57 million, bringing the
total contributed by employees to more than $178 million, about
three times as much as in 2011, according to filings.
Stone Street is one block north of Bridge Street in
Manhattan’s financial district. Both are near Goldman Sachs’s
former headquarters at 85 Broad St.

Override Fees

The Bridge Street and Stone Street funds are managed by
Goldman Sachs’s merchant-banking division, which is led by
Richard Friedman and also runs the firm’s client funds. The bank
typically doesn’t charge partners management fees or overrides,
the manager’s cut of gains, often called carried interest.
The employee funds raise questions about conflicts of
interest similar to those posed by the firm’s principal
investments. Goldman Sachs hasn’t disclosed the criteria it uses
to decide when to invest client funds in a company versus using
its own balance sheet or employee funds.
“The negative of things like this is clients always wonder
if you’re saving the best stuff for yourselves,” Johnson said.
“So you’ve got to be careful with that and let them know that
clients either come first or are beside us in the deals, but
we’re not ahead of the clients.”
Goldman Sachs also often serves as underwriter on IPOs for
companies in which it has invested, leading competitors to
question whether the firm will push for a higher price than the
market would dictate.

Stemming Defections

Banks including Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Inc. haven’t
made private-equity funds broadly available to employees since
2008. Those two firms offered funds before the financial crisis
in which it leveraged employee contributions by lending $2 to
the fund for every $1 committed, allowing bankers to benefit
from profits made beyond the cost of the loan.
Goldman Sachs’s employee funds are modeled on those of
hedge funds and asset-management firms, which often reinvest a
portion of annual bonuses in their funds, said Ilana Weinstein,
founder of New York-based recruiting firm IDW Group LLC.
The efforts might not be enough to stem defections of some
traders seeking higher pay and less regulation, Weinstein said.
The average amount Goldman Sachs set aside last year for
compensation per employee was $383,374, down from $661,490 in
2007. The firm’s partners typically receive a $900,000 salary
and often earn many times that in bonuses.

Bonus Amounts

“If the objective is to try to retain senior people from
leaving to go to the buy side, the structure is similar to what
goes on in asset-management land, but the absolute dollar
numbers are going to be smaller,” Weinstein said. “I don’t
know if you stay just because you can participate in those
funds.”
Goldman Sachs’s eligible workers are alerted to the funds
early in the year as they learn their bonus amounts, according
to current and former employees who asked not to be identified
talking about compensation policies. They can choose to set
aside a portion of their bonus to invest in the funds, and the
money is put to use over several years.
The newest partners will be notified of their selection
tomorrow morning by Blankfein and President Gary D. Cohn,
according to a person briefed on the process.
Even with the recent increases in contributions, the amount
invested by Goldman Sachs employees pales compared with the pre-
crisis funds. Bankers at the firm contributed more than $1.5
billion to employee funds tied to Capital Partners VI in 2007
and more than $1 billion to funds tied to Capital Partners V two
years earlier, filings show.

Investing Risks

The reduction may be because the financial crisis exposed
the risks of investing in the funds. Some that invested
alongside real estate funds before the housing market collapsed
lost money. The funds also aren’t liquid. General Counsel Greg
Palm and Jon Winkelried, then co-president of the firm with
Cohn, found that out when they needed cash in late 2008. The
firm ended up buying their stakes.
Still, individual contributions have been capped because
demand for the funds often outpaced their targeted size.
Contributions are locked up for several years and distributions
can continue over more than a decade.
Former CEO Hank Paulson had between $3.6 million and $7.6
million in 22 Bridge Street and Stone Street funds from the
1990s and 2000 as of the end of 2005, according to public
financial disclosures from when he became U.S. Treasury
Secretary the following year.

Blankfein Benefit

While the firm doesn’t provide details of the funds’
performance, bankers who have participated said that previous
employee funds have performed well, in some cases more than
doubling the amount invested.
Blankfein, 60, has received $173.4 million from employee
funds in the past 12 years. Palm and Cohn also have received
more than $100 million of distributions. Goldman Sachs doesn’t
disclose how much of that is profit and how much return of
invested capital.
The return to employee-only funds eliminates one added
bonus from the previous structure: Bankers who invested in the
earlier funds also received a share of the fees that the firm
charges outside clients. Blankfein and Palm, the two largest
investors in employee funds among the firm’s officers, have
received more than $9 million of such gains since 2008.

T2 Biosystems

The recent funds have made several profitable investments.
Bridge Street 2011 funds were involved in a buyout that
year by Goldman Sachs and Warburg Pincus LLC of Endurance
International Group Holdings Inc., one of the world’s largest
website-hosting companies. Burlington, Massachusetts-based
Endurance went public last year, and the stake held by Bridge
Street funds has gained more than 40 percent, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg.
In March 2013, that year’s Bridge Street fund made a
preferred investment alongside Goldman Sachs in Lexington,
Massachusetts-based T2 Biosystems Inc., a maker of diagnostic
instruments for detection of infectious diseases. Seventeen
months later, Goldman Sachs and Bridge Street bought more stock
in T2’s IPO. The fund’s total investment of $4.34 million has
increased more than 50 percent in value, based on yesterday’s
closing price.
Bridge Street funds also own preferred shares in iKang
Healthcare Group Inc., a Beijing-based company that provides
health-care services to corporations, and have stakes in credit-
reporting company TransUnion Corp., Indian cable-television
operator DEN Networks Ltd. and Interline Brands Inc., which
sells plumbing and air conditioning products.
“Historically these kinds of funds have done well,” said
Johnson, the pay consultant. “And even when they haven’t done
well, people kind of sucked it up and didn’t complain.”

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To contact the reporter on this story:
Michael J. Moore in New York at +1-212-617-6919 or
mmoore55@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Peter Eichenbaum at +1-212-617-5722 or
peichenbaum@bloomberg.net
Robert Friedman, David Scheer