>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 13th of November 2014

>>> Up
*AVEVA RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT FROM EQUAL WEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*HOCHTIEF RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT BANKHAUS LAMPE
*WOLSELEY RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT BERENBERG

>>> Down
*CAPITA CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*GAZPROM CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*GERRESHEIMER CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE
*HAVAS CUT TO NEUTRAL FROM BUY AT GOLDMAN; PT RAISED TO EU7.5
*MITIE CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT FROM OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*ROSNEFT CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*STANDARD LIFE CUT TO NEUTRAL FROM OUTPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE
*TALKTALK CUT TO NEUTRAL FROM BUY AT GOLDMAN

>>> PT Changes


>>> Initiation
*GJENSIDIGE RATED NEW NEUTRAL AT CITI, PT NOK130
*LEONTEQ RATED NEW BUY AT BERENBERG, PT CHF270
*XXL RATED NEW NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE; PT NOK81

>>> Call
>> Stock
*PHILIPS ADDED TO MORGAN STANLEY EUROPE BEST IDEAS LIST (note attached)
*UBS Preferred in Europe; Citi, JPM, BofAML in U.S.: MS Says

>>>> Banca Carige may seek merger with BPM following capital increase - report (

Banca Carige may seek merger with BPM following capital increase - report (translated)
Story
Banca Carige, the listed Italian lender, could seek a merger with peer Banca Popolare di Milano (BPM) after it completes its capital increase of EUR 500m-EUR 650m, Italian-language daily Milano Finanza reported.

The unsourced article said a merger between the two banks could be opened by Andrea Bonomi, the head of private equity firm Investindustrial, subscribing to a significant part of the Carige capital increase. The report noted Bonomi was recently chairman of BPM.

The most likely scenario would involve BPM taking a stake in Carige through a reserved capital increase in the second half of 2015, the item noted.

The Bank of Italy is likely to look favourably at the operation, and with its support plus the fact that Carige would be recapitalised could prove to be factors in favour of BPM agreeing to a merger. BPM and Carige do not have significant geographical overlap, which would make the merger easier, the article added.


Source Milano Finanza daily edition

>>> Nutreco suitors Cargill, Permira hire Credit Suisse and Rabobank

Nutreco suitors Cargill, Permira hire Credit Suisse and Rabobank

US agrofood concern Cargill and PE house Permira have hired Credit Suisse and Rabobank to advise them in their takeover efforts of Nutreco, a Dutch animal feed company, De Financieele Telegraaf reported.

The hiring of Rabobank could imply the duo is serious about staying in the race as Rabobank knows Nutreco and its market through and through, the report said.



Source De Financieele Telegraaf

>>> Club Med offer period could be prolonged; Fosun expected to improve EUR 22 p

Club Med offer period could be prolonged; Fosun expected to improve EUR 22 per share offer 

French stock market regulator AMF is expected to prolong the offer period for listed French holiday resorts operator Club Med after the EUR 23 per share improved offer submitted by Italian financier Andrea Bonomi and its Global Resorts acquisition vehicle, French newsletter Wansquare reported.

The report, which did not reveal its source of information, said that while Bonomi was hoping that the end of the offer period for Club Med, currently set to 20 November 2014, would remain unchanged, AMF could prolong it by a few additional days.

According to the report, Chinese investment fund Fosun is believed to be preparing another counter-bid and would improve the EUR 22 per share offer it has already submitted for Club Med. Fosun already owns a 18% shareholding in Club Med, the report noted.


Source WanSquare

NYT - Hasbro Said to Be in Talks to Buy DreamWorks Animation

http://nyti.ms/1BdSVRs

Shrek could soon share a home with the Transformers and little ponies like Flutteryshy and Twilight Sparkle if their corporate parents are able to seal a deal.

The toymaker Hasbro is in advanced talks to buy DreamWorks Animation, potentially gaining a new big-screen outlet for its wares, people briefed on the matter said on Wednesday.

Should a deal be reached — and these people cautioned that talks were continuing and might still fall apart — it would mark a new chapter for DreamWorks Animation. It would also come more than a month after the studio held talks with another prospective buyer, the Japanese telecommunications company SoftBank.

Under the current terms of the proposed deal, Hasbro would pay a mix of cash and stock, though an exact price has not yet been determined, one of the people said. Jeffrey Katzenberg, the chief executive of DreamWorks Animation, is seeking more than $30 a share, a significant premium over his company’s current stock price.

Shares in DreamWorks Animation closed on Wednesday at $22.37, giving the studio a market value of about $1.9 billion. Hasbro’s stock closed on Wednesday at $57.47 a share, giving it a market value of about $7.2 billion.

Mr. Katzenberg, the Hollywood mogul who runs DreamWorks Animation, is expected to stay with the company, the person added.

In courting the Hollywood studio, Hasbro believes that it can find a new market for its stable of toys, which includes Transformers, G.I. Joe and My Little Pony. The company, the second-biggest toymaker in the United States behind its rival Mattel, has reported robust sales in recent years. Last month, it reported sales of $1.47 billion in its third quarter, up 7 percent from the same period of a year earlier.

Hasbro’s chief executive, Brian Goldner, has long sought to take advantage of the company’s properties to transform it into a global entertainment titan, notably by forming its own studio in 2009 to develop and produce television shows and movies.

One model might be the Lego Group, a privately held Danish company. Lego started with its trademark plastic toy bricks and transformed itself into a broader entertainment company by creating Lego video games and building seven Legoland theme parks. Its most recent effort was a collaboration with Warner Bros., “The Lego Movie,” which took in $468.1 million worldwide. Three sequels are on the way.

Some of Hasbro’s own efforts have met with success. The four live-action “Transformers” movies, made together with Paramount Pictures, have produced nearly $3.8 billion in ticket sales. And Universal recently hit pay dirt with “Ouija,” a horror film based on the classic Hasbro board game. The film cost $5 million to make and has so far taken in $57.9 million.

But Hasbro’s four-year joint venture with Discovery Communications to establish a children’s cable channel, the Hub Network, ended in October when Discovery bought a controlling stake and rebranded the channel Discovery Family.

Hasbro has also suffered a few movie flops, notably “Battleship,” in 2012.

In buying DreamWorks Animation, Hasbro, which is based in Pawtucket, R.I., would be teaming up with Hollywood’s smallest film studio. DreamWorks Animation produces only a handful of movies a year but has been responsible for blockbusters like the “Shrek” and “Kung Fu Panda” franchises. The company was spun off in 2004 from DreamWorks Studios, which is privately owned.

The studio has fallen on harder times in the past couple of years, with films like “Turbo” and “Rise of the Guardians” falling well short of expectations. Even its most recent hit, “How to Train Your Dragon 2,” suffered from lower domestic ticket sales than its predecessor. Source material that is already familiar to children — like Hasbro toys — would give the studio a leg up when it comes to generating interest in a related movie.

DreamWorks Animation’s recent run of misfortune helped contribute to two consecutive quarterly losses, including a $15.4 million loss in the quarter ended June 30. But in the most recent quarter, the company reported net income of $11.9 million, a 17 percent increase compared with results in the same period of a year earlier. From its high in early 2010, the studio’s stock price has fallen 49 percent. Yet analysts have said that DreamWorks Animation still has a trove of lucrative content in its library. And the company has been making forays into television production and an array of other business initiatives, from an entertainment center in Shanghai to indoor mini-theme parks in Russia.

The studio also owns AwesomenessTV, a YouTube channel aimed at teenage girls.

News of the talks between Hasbro and DreamWorks Animation was reported earlier by Deadline.com, a trade publication.

(UBS) CSR : Voice & Music remains the standout performer

Q3 results slightly better on gross margin strength
CSR reported better than expected Q3 results with revenues/EBIT of $212m/$41.1m
ahead of UBSe of $210m/$35.1m and consensus of $217m/$39.6m. Underlying core
gross margins rose to 61.3% from 59.2% in Q2 and is the equal highest ever seen
from the company (equal with Q3 '13). Within the quarter, Voice & Music was the key
outperformer, growing 41% y-o-y and benefiting from strength in underlying handset
demand and also structural growth in speaker bars and connected audio solutions.
Disappointingly however, automotive declined further in Q3 (-19% y-o-y vs -18% in
Q2) as despite seeing growth in factory-fit solutions (which is now the majority of
revenue), competitive pressure in after-market solutions in China along with continued
declines in PND solutions, more than offset this.
Strength in audio and Some Bluetooth Smart traction
In Q3, CSR also announced that it had signed a further 20 licences for its aptX audio
codec, taking the total number to nearly 300. CSR has a strong breadth of customers
now for aptX and we believe is helping to strengthen the company's position in the
emerging wireless home entertainment market. In Bluetooth Smart, it remains a small
proportion of overall revenue but CSR highlights it has seen a number of Tier 1 wins
and that revenue approximately doubled y-o-y in Q3.
Management's expectations unchanged, we increase forecasts on margins
CSR's management is highlighting that its expectations remain unchanged for Q4. We
have left our revenue forecasts broadly unchanged (c1%, although higher Voice &
Music offsetting lower Auto), but increase our gross margins leading to 8%/5%/4%
increases to our '14E/'15E/'16E EPS forecasts.
Valuation: 900p based on Qualcomm offer price
Our 900p valuation for CSR is based on the recommended offer price for the shares
from Qualcomm. The court and general meetings to approve the transaction are
scheduled for the 4th December 2014 with the acquisition targeted to be effective by
the end of summer 2015.

(MS) BEst Ideas - Europe : Adding Philips

Adding Philips


We add Philips. Since our September 26 upgrade, the shares have sold off after Q3 disappointments. In his report today, Ben Uglow reiterates that the spin-off of Lighting can crystallise the value of HealthTech.
Overweight
Danone
Lloyds
Marks & Spencer
Philips NEW
Ryanair
Sonova
TUI Travel


The Best Ideas List is a collection of stock ideas from European Research that look most promising based on differentiated analysis and views, long-term fundamentals, and short-term potential catalysts. The list is not an investment portfolio. It has no mandated sector allocation, no minimum/maximum number of stocks, no turnover constraint or minimum holding period, and no “style” bias.
Differentiated research. We seek out-of-consensus thinking that incorporates fresh data, analysis, and insight. Analysts are expected to consider what the market may be discounting and address market assumptions on key investment debates.
Favourable risk-reward profiles. Scenario analysis lies at the heart of our disciplined approach to research, so we look beyond single-point estimates and price targets. We examine the full risk-reward profile of the investment, assessing the range of plausible outcomes and the scenario skew as indicators of analyst conviction.
Clear catalysts. We require a clear roadmap for upcoming data and events in the following months that can help corroborate our analysts’ medium-term projections

(BFW) Rio Tinto Urges G-20 to Focus on Infrastructure, Corruption

Infrastructure is the next sector to move, easy to finance, long term project, direct impact on unemployment... Should see that move in Europe quickly as it's starting to move in china
BN 11/13 04:49 *LACK OF INFRASTRUCTURE IS MOST COMMON GLBOAL CHALLENGE: WALSH
BN 11/13 04:49 *RIO TINTO CEO SAM WALSH COMMENTS IN SPEECH IN BRISBANE
BN 11/13 04:49 *RIO TINTO SAYS G20, BUSINESS MUST SUPPORT DEVELOPING WORLD
Rio Tinto Urges G-20 to Focus on Infrastructure, Corruption
2014-11-13 04:54:47.872 GMT


By David Stringer
Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Developed nations and businesses can
support emerging economies to improve infrastructure and drive
out corruption to support investment, Rio Tinto CEO Sam Walsh
says in a speech in Brisbane.
* Co. finds the most common challenge in the 40 countries in
which it operates is “lack of infrastructure,” Walsh says
* Citizens of under-developed nations want a better life and
everyone benefits from their prosperity: Walsh
* Questioning the merits of global economic growth “is a
luxury enjoyed by those whose reference frame has been
distorted by comfort and wealth,” Walsh says
* NOTE: Co. said earlier it hopes to see progress in Mongolia
on stalled Oyu Tolgoi mine expansion: {NSN NETERK6K50YN
<GO>}

Link to Company News:{RIO LN <Equity> CN <GO>}

For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: {FIRST<GO>}
First Word newswire: {NH BFW<GO>}

To contact the reporter on this story:
David Stringer in Melbourne at +61-3-9228-8737 or
dstringer3@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Victoria Batchelor at +61-2-9777-8674 or
vbatchelor@bloomberg.net

>>> Asian Update

Asian Market Update: AUD slides on RBA intervention chatter; BOK on hold with an eye on weak Yen


***Economic Data***
- (KR) BANK OF KOREA (BOK) LEAVES 7-DAY REPO RATE AT 2.00% (AS EXPECTED)
- (JP) JAPAN OCT CGPI (PPI) M/M: -0.8% V -0.4%E; Y/Y: 2.9% (7-month low) V 3.3%E
- (JP) JAPAN SEPT MACHINE ORDERS M/M: 2.9% (4-month low) V -1.0%E; Y/Y: 7.3% V -0.3%E
- (JP) JAPAN SEPT FINAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 2.9% V 2.7% PRELIM; Y/Y: 0.8% V 0.6% PRELIM
- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATION: 4.1% (6-month high) V 3.4% PRIOR
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND NOV ANZ CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: 121.8 (14-month low) V 123.4 PRIOR
- (NZ) New Zealand REINZ Oct House Price Index: 3,989 v 3,934 prior; M/M: +1.4% v +0.2% prior; House Sales Y/Y: -2.4% v -10.2% prior
- (UK) UK OCT RICS HOUSE PRICE BALANCE: 20% V 25%E (17-month low)

***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +0.3%, S&P/ASX -0.4%, Kospi -0.3%, Shanghai Composite -0.4%, Hang Seng -0.2%, Dec S&P500 flat at 2,036

***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Dec gold +0.1% at $1,160, Dec crude oil -0.2% at $77.00/brl, Dec copper flat $3.02
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 1.8 tonnes to 722.7 tonnes; Lowest level since Sept 2008
- (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: -1.5M (2nd consecutive draw) v +0.5Me, GASOLINE: +1.1M v +0.5Me, DISTILLATE: -1.3M v -1.5Me
- (CN) PBoC to drain CNY20B in 14-day repos (30th consecutive drain); Net zero position this week (5th week of neutral position)
- JGB: (JP) Japan's MoF sells ¥2.49T in 0.2% (0.1% prior) 5-yr notes; Avg yield: 0.160% v 0.134% prior; Bid to cover: 3.70x v 4.54x prior
- (JP) Japan investors bought net ¥1.12T in foreign bonds v bought ¥806.6B in prior week; Foreign investors bought net ¥1.06T in Japan stocks v bought ¥904.7B in prior week

***Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX***
- Aussie dollar fell some 55pips toward $0.8670, when RBA assistant Gov Kent injected a threat of currency intervention into his remarks. Kent reiterated the most recent RBA position that AUD exchange rate is still too high relative to fundamentals, and that despite of signs of improvement, labor market is subdued. Other comments were similarly dovish, noting non-mining investment recovery may not be as strong as those in the past, and that mining investment would fall further in the coming year, all leading up to the threat that "RBA has not ruled out intervention" as a policy option. Note that the dovish remarks were also in spite of consumer inflation expectations hitting a 6-month high of 4.1% - well above the RBA target range.

- Japanese Yen briefly weakened once again after another dose of speculation over the fate of the 2nd round of the sales tax. USD/JPY jumped about 30pips above 115.80 on Jiji report citing a ruling LDP party official, stating PM Abe appears to have made a decision to call snap elections, informing his party base to be prepared for December polls. Japan cabinet has now been forced to deny such rumors twice in the scope of the past week. Separately, BOJ's Amamiya said the central bank's easing is an open-ended policy position targeting 2% inflation, and that the central bank is not concerned with the risk of hyper-inflation.

- As widely expected, BOK left rates on hold at 2.00% in a unanimous decision. Policy statement was largely neutral, noting exports continue favorable trend, economy would improve gradually, and negative output gap would narrow. Echoing some of the Korean govt officials, BOK acknowledged external threat of a weak Japanese yen potentially hurting domestic exporters, noting it was closely watching major countries' monetary policy along with the risks of the end of US easing and slowdown in the eurozone. USD/KRW hit session highs on those remarks, once again approaching KRW1,100 level.

***Equities***
US markets:
- FUEL: Reports Q3 -$0.18 v -$0.30e, R$102.1M v $97.7Me; +16.8% afterhours
- CYBR: Reports Q3 $0.20 v $0.01e, R$28.0M v $20.9Me; +15.6% afterhours
- IMOS: Reports Q3 $0.62 v $0.18 y/y, R$190.7M v $178M y/y; +4.4% afterhours
- TWTR: CFO: Raises long-term profit margin to 40-45% from 35-40% previous forecast - Analyst Day comments; +1.5% afterhours

- CSCO: Reports Q1 $0.54 v $0.53e, R$12.25B v $12.2Be; CFO to step down, effective Jan 1; -1.6% afterhours
- NTES: Reports Q3 $1.44 v $1.48e, R$507.8M v $446Me; -2.1% afterhours
- NTAP: Reports Q2 $0.70 v $0.69e, R$1.54B v $1.55Be; -3.1% afterhours
- WLT: Files $2.5B mixed securities shelf - filing (10x market cap); -3.6% afterhours
- JCP: Reports Q3 -$0.77 v -$0.83e, R$2.76B v $2.82Be; -5.3% afterhours

- DWA: Hasbro said to be in talks to acquire the company - US press

Notable movers by sector:
- Materials: Perseus Mining PRU.AU +2.8% (Q1 results); Sims Metal Management SGM.AU +1.9% (H1 guidance); Fortescue Metals FMG.AU +1.5% (CEO comments; analyst action); Toyo Tire & Rubber 5105.JP +8.1% (9-month results)
- Industrials: Takata Corp 7312.JP +5.9% (took steps on air bag issue)
- Technology: Tencent Holdings 700.HK -1.3% (Q3 results); Chinasoft International 354.HK -1.1% (9-month results)
- Utilities: J-Power 9513.JP +4.1% (analyst action)

>>> US After Hours

After Hours Summary: FUEL +16.1%, CYBR +14.4%, PLKI +2.6%, XONE -8.5%, JCP -5.9%, CSCO -1.4% following earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers: Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: FUEL +16.1%, CYBR +14.4%, ZAZA +13.7%, LIME +10.4%, ABAC +10.1%, MARA +8.3%, SFS +6.3%, IMOS +4.4%, AGRO +3.5%, PLKI +2.6%, ARCW +2.6%, PNNT +2%, OXGN +1.7%, HUBS +1.7%, CNAT +1.5%, WGL +0.7%, NTES +0.6%, WX +0.3%, AMTX +0.1%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: IMOS +4.4% (Board authorized the repurchase of $15 mln of the company's common stock), SRPT +1.4% (announced that it has initiated dosing in a clinical study of eteplirsen for the treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy), GME +0.7% (disclosed that its Board has authorized $500 mln of funds to be used in the company's share repurchase plan)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: LJPC -12.5%, RVNC -9.5%, XONE -8.5%, RLGT -6.8%, JCP -5.9%, BRSS -5.3%, NTAP -3.1%, IAG -2.6%, OAKS -2.2%, HTHT -2.1%, LOCM -1.4%, CSCO -1.4%, CHMI -1%, UGI -1%, ACFN -0.9%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: WG -4.6% (filed to delay the filing of Form 10-Q due to an error discovered in previous Form 10-Q), WLT -3.6% (filed for a $2.5 bln mixed securities shelf offering), VOYA -3.2% (announced that ING Group has entered into an agreement with a syndicate of underwriters to sell Voya Financial common stock in an underwritten public offering; also entered into a share repurchase agreement of $175 mln), RATE -2.3% (filed to delay form 10-Q; internal review is ongoing, previously issued financial statements should no longer be relied upon), TCBI -2.2% (announced ~2.5 mln share common stock offering), RXN -2.0% (announced the launch of a public offering of 14,729,045 common shares by funds affiliated with Apollo Global Management), MX -1.9% (co said it expects to file 2013 Form 10-K and Form 10-Q soon but cannot be certain how much time will ultimately be required to complete the restatement process), CHMI -1.0% (files for the sale of 1 mln shares by Chairman of the Board Stanley Middleman; co also filed for a $500 mln mixed securities shelf offering)