>>> What to look at this Week End - 16th & 17th of May 2015

Equities wove in and out of negative territory this week and bond markets were choppy, even as the DJIA and S&P500 quietly tested all-time highs. China started the week off with more stimulus - the PBoC cut rates for the third time since November. The US April retail sales and industrial production reports were quite soft, lending ammunition to participants saying the Fed would not be raising rates this summer. ECB President Draghi dismissed criticisms of his €1.1 trillion QE program on Thursday, reiterating that the ECB would buy the full allotment under the program and insisting that the plan would help prepare the Eurozone for higher rates. Greece made minor concessions to its partners on asset sales, but little movement is apparent in negotiations. For the week, the DJIA edged up 0.4%, the S&P500 added 0.3% and the Nasdaq rose 0.9%.


Macro :
- ECB’s Mersch Says Greece Must Stick to Its Promises
- BOE’s Bailey Says Asset Buffers an Option for Systemic Funds
- Greek Euro Exit Poses Political Not Economic Danger: Gabriel

Keep an eye on :
- AERL LN : Irish Govt Report to Recommend Sale of Aer Lingus to IAG: Times
- AVV LN : Aveva attracts interest from European and US bidders, Schneider, GE & Emerson are interested, value ~ GBP1b - Sunday Times
- BPTY LN : 888 Holdings Said in Running for Bwin.Party, Times Says
- EXO GY : PartnerRe Holder Exor Reports 9.9% Stake
- GOOGL US : Plans to put "Buy" button next to some search ads, starting in the next few weeks
- ITV LN : ITV rumoured to be in sights of Comcast - FT
- MKS LN : Marks & Spencer May Return Cash to Shareholders: Sunday Times
- PC IM : ChemChina Finalizes Accord with Banks for EU6.8b Loan: Corriere
- UG FP : PSA Peugeot Citroen Plant Plans to Invest EU48m, Expresso Says
- RWE GY : RWE to Pay Back-Taxes for 2004-2008, Boersen-Zeitung Reports
- SU FP : Schneider Electric in Talks About Possible Aveva Bid - Sunday Times
- VED LN : Vedanta CEO Sees Investments Slowing Amid Oversupply: Telegraph
- VOS GY : Vossloh Starts Sale of Transportation Business: Boersen-Zeitung
- Zanetti IPO : Zanetti IPO Range Set at EU11.6-EU15.75; Offer to Start May 18

Daily Mail : Billionaire Christo Wiese has eyes on other retailers after New Loo

Billionaire Christo Wiese has eyes on other retailers after New Look deal

South African billionaire Christo Wiese said he could make further acquisitions in Britain following his dramatic takeover of fashion chain New Look.

Wiese’s family investment vehicle, Brait, said on Thursday it would pay £780million for 90 per cent of the chain’s shares.
Wiese, worth an estimated £3.5billion, has been linked with major firms including BHS, Morrisons and Debenhams, but remains tight-lipped about his next target.

Speaking for the first time of his UK plans, he added that new opportunities were arising all of the time. His interest in New Look was first revealed in The Mail on Sunday last October.
The tycoon is also investing in a British start-up called Pep & Co, which is being overseen by former Asda chairman Andy Bond and has plans for 50 stores.
New Look – founded by fashion guru Tom Singh, who is still involved with the business – has been sold by private equity firms Apax and Permira.
The company has 600 stores in the UK and Ireland and another 200 across the Continent, North Africa, the Middle East and Asia.
Wiese described New look as ‘a very exciting business with a wonderful management team’.
Brait also bought an 80 per cent stake in fitness chain Virgin Active for £682million.

FT : Alexis Tsipras letter reveals precariousness of Greece’s finances


Alexis Tsipras letter reveals precariousness of Greece’s finances

Greece came so close to defaulting on last week’s €750m International Monetary Fund repayment the prime minister warned IMF chief Christine Lagarde that he could not pay it without EU aid.
Athens ultimately made the payment without financial assistance from the bloc but only by tapping a rarely used emergency account Greece holds at the fund — an unorthodox transaction that amounted to borrowing IMF funds to pay the IMF.

Alexis Tsipras, Greek prime minister, wrote to Ms Lagarde, warning that the IMF repayment would be missed unless the European Central Bank immediately raised its curbs on Greece’s ability to issue short-term debt.
The letter, first reported by the Greek daily Kathimerini but independently confirmed by the Financial Times, raises questions about how close Athens is to bankruptcy. In addition to payments due to the IMF next month totalling €1.5bn, the Greek government has struggled to meet its wage and pension bills, which must be paid at the end of the month.
The next €300m IMF payment is due on June 5.
Greece is locked in a four-month stand-off with bailout lenders over the release of €7.2bn in aid that Athens needs to pay looming bills.
Creditors will not disburse the tranche without agreement on Greek economic reforms.
The contents of the Greek prime minister’s letter were revealed by Ms Lagarde at a closed-door meeting of the fund’s board on Thursday.
According to officials briefed on the talks, Poul Thomsen, head of the IMF’s European department, warned the board that negotiations on the Greek economic reform package remain so unproductive that the fund may be forced to withhold its €3.6bn portion of the €7.2bn aid tranche.
Mr Thomsen insisted that the fund remained flexible on which reforms Athens needed to implement but told the board the programme must “add up” and begin lowering Greek debt to sustainable levels, officials said.
As a result, any watering-down of Greece’s reform package or lowering its budget surplus targets — positions advocated in some eurozone capitals, including Brussels — may require the EU to consider writedowns on their bailout loans in order for the IMF to assent, Mr Thomsen told the board.

Officials said Ms Lagarde fully backed Mr Thomsen, telling staff that they should not proceed with a “quick and dirty” approval process.
“It’s clear that we are very far from something the IMF will be able to support without fundamentally breaking its own rules,” said one official briefed on the fund’s board discussion.
According to two officials briefed on the talks, at least one board member raised the possibility of presenting a “take it or leave it proposal” to Greece.
However, IMF staff said they still do not have enough data from Greek authorities to put together such a plan.
A similar tactic was used in March 2013, when the Cypriot government was presented with a severe bailout plan and told it must agree or lose ECB support for its failing banking sector.
The idea of a “Cyprus-like” presentation to Greek authorities has gained traction among some eurozone finance ministers, according to one official involved in the talks.
The official noted that the recent public backing by Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s finance minister, for a Greek referendum fits into such a scheme. Under this scenario, Mr Tsipras would take the bailout ultimatum to a nationwide vote for approval.
However, another official involved in the talks cautioned that a “take it or leave it” approach remained only one of many ideas being discussed informally as a way to finalise an agreement.

(Barron's) AN M&A DEAL THAT COULD BE A TOUGHER (Delhaize & Ahold)

AN M&A DEAL THAT COULD BE A TOUGHER to push through is the possible combination of food retailers Royal Ahold (AH.Netherlands) and Delhaize (DELB.Belgium).
The companies confirmed May 12 that they are in preliminary discussions that could lead to the creation of a grocer with 54 billion euros ($61.56 billion) in annual sales and leading positions in the Netherlands, Belgium, and the east coast of the U.S. Ahold, which owns Stop & Shop, could offer a 30% to 40% premium to Delhaize’s share price before the talks were disclosed. Delhaize operates Hannaford and Food Lion.
That translates to a takeout price of €94 and €101. Based on Delhaize’s closing price Friday of €83.58, that would represent a premium of 12.5% to 20.8%. Its ADRs (DEG) were trading above $23.
A merger seems to make sense, with analysts at Société Générale calculating potential synergies at €540 million, and value creation at €11 billion. But they caution that the most recent deals in the sector have been disappointing.
Delhaize’s stock was discussed favorably in this column last year (“Time to Put Delhaize in Your Cart,” April 7). It is up about 60% since then, but it still could have a way to go. Investors might want to make space in their shopping carts.

>>> Goldman raises forecasts for Bund and Treasury yields

Goldman raises forecasts for Bund and Treasury yields 
- Forecasts 10Y bund yield will rise to 0.9% by end of 2015 (prior forecast 0.5%)
- Forecasts 10Y US Treasury yield at 2.75% by year end
- Even at these higher yields Goldman believes bonds are still too expensive -- its model suggests economic fundamentals put the proper 10Y Treasury yield at 3.2%.

>>> In May 8 letter, Greece PM Tsipras threatened to withhold €750M repayment du

In May 8 letter, Greece PM Tsipras threatened to withhold €750M repayment due in May unless European partners provided liquidity immediately [*Note: Athens made the payment 4 days later] - Greece press 

- In the May 8th letter Tsipras asked again that the ECB raise Greece's treasury bill issuance ceiling. He also asked for a partial disbursement of €7.3B in loan tranches, and the return of €1.9B of payments Greece has made into the EFSF bailout fund and €1.2B in profits the ECB made from buying Greek govt bonds since 2010.
- In the end, Greece made the repayment on time (May 12) by tapping its accounts at the IMF.

>>> Barron's summary: positive on LVLT, MEG; cautious on MSFT; highlights potent

Barron's summary: positive on LVLT, MEG; cautious on MSFT; highlights potential activist targets (VRSN, XLNX, MDT, COH 

Cover story: Profile of Lyrical Asset Management, which oversees more than $3B, including $2.5B in its flagship Lyrical U.S. Value Equity fund, No. 14 on Barron's Penta 2015 ranking of the 100 Best Hedge Funds; The fund "only replaces stocks a couple of times a year, follows a set valuation formula, and owns exactly 33 U.S. stocks"; During three years through 2014, it returned 27.62% a year, net of fees.

Features: 1) Positive on LVLT: Fiberoptic network provider "is well-positioned for the broadband explosion" that could see usage tripled in the coming years; shares could rise 20%, in addition to which it owns valuable assets; 2) Positive on MEG: Synergies from acquisition of Young Broadcasting and LIN Media, along with greater free cash flow generated by the deals, could push the stock up 50% in the next two years.

Tech Trader: Cautious on MSFT: Tiernan Ray says that despite seemingly fresh thinking from chief Satya Nadella, the tech giant remains too obsessed with Windows; It should instead become a development platform for mobile and Web computing, a process it could jump-start by acquiring coding-tool startup Xamarin.

Trader: A catalyst to propel the market out of its range trading could be the growing conviction a September Fed rate hike won't happen, says Adam Sarhan of Sarhan Capital; Positive on RL: Though fashion company faces near-term challenges, none are insurmountable; Wall Street's gloomy outlook seems overdone, and results are likely to show sustainable improvement later in the fiscal year; Cautious on WIN: Networking communications company is a short-term buy, not a long-term investment, and requires vigilance on the part of investors.

Small Caps: Cautious on BCO: Armored truck firm has struggled amid banking consolidation and sector competition, and following a recent rally it may be time to take profits.

Profile: Michael Kass, portfolio manager, Baron Emerging Markets, which focuses on growing entrepreneurial companies (top ten holdings: Haitong Securities, Samsung Electronics, Sinopharm Group, China Telecom, Steinhoff International Holdings, Torrent Pharma, China Mobile, Taiwan Semi Manufacturing, Tencent Holdings, Axis Bank).

Follow-Up: Private investors are seeking growth opportunities in companies such as Uber and Lyft, even though the IPO market hasn't been living up to expectations; Negative on ITT: For-profit education company continues to face myriad problems, and shares have plummeted as regulators try to track its industry-high student loan defaults; Cautious on AMTD: Long-term growth prospects are good, but the stock "is vulnerable to further dithering over rates," and investors should consider taking some profits for now.

European Trader: Positive on Syngenta: Even if tie-up with MON doesn't come through, investors can still profit from chemical company's plan to generate savings and efficiencies; + Delhaize: Shares are up 60% since last April, but they may still have more upside if Royal Ahold merger goes through.

Asian Trader: Slowdown in India's stock market is likely to continue, barring big economic changes; Of the big four Indian infotech vendors, Tata may be the best choice for investors.

Emerging Markets: Lower oil prices could continue to have a negative effect on Russian and Nigerian stocks and Venezuelan debt, but could benefit importers such as India, Indonesia, and Turkey.

Commodities: Some investors think aluminum's big gains will ease even as other metals push higher. 

CEO Spotlight: L'Oreal chief executive Jean-Paul Agon believes digital technology can transform the relationship between consumers and brands.

Streetwise: Companies that could be potential targets for activist investors include VRSN, XLNX, MDT, and COH.

>>> Aveva attracts interest from European and US bidders (schneider, GE, Emerson

Aveva attracts interest from European and US bidders 

Aveva, the listed UK software group, has attracted the interest of a number of US and European groups, the Sunday Times reported.

The French energy group Schneider Electric, Connecticut-based conglomerate General Electric (GE) and Missouri-based Emerson are considering making offers, the article noted, citing financial sources.

The report said Schneider is already understood to have negotiated with banks over an offer for Aveva. Schneider wants to merge Aveva with Ivensys, the software group specialising in the oil and gas sector it acquired in 2013, as this would achieve GBP 100m in synergies, the item added.

GE and Emerson will look at Aveva's latest results and for a fall in its share price before considering a bid, the report noted.

The item noted private equity firms appear reluctant to bid, and are unlikely to try to match the same offers that are likely to come from industrial bidders.

The report estimated Aveva's value at GBP 1bn (EUR 1.373bn)

Source Sunday Times

>>> Courregges looks to attract outside investor - MF Fashion

Courregges looks to attract outside investor - MF Fashion

Courreges, the privately-held Paris-based fashion house, is looking to attract an outside investor, Italian language daily MF Fashion reported. The report cited Courreges co-owners Frederic Torloting and Jacques Bungert as saying that they wanted to sell an unspecified holding for EUR 20m. The report cited the owners as saying that they intended to retain control of the company.

The report noted that Courreges has turnover of EUR 20m.

MF Fashion

(Barron's) Breguet Watches: A History of Innovation



Breguet Watches: A History of Innovation

How Swatch revived the spirit of the greatest watchmaker who ever lived.

Breguet, the illustrious Swiss watchmaker, can cast a spell over you. I know this is so. Back in 1999, a friend of mine from the online watch community read an in-flight magazine article on Breguet—about its rich history dating back to the 18th century and how it is still making modern high-end watches—and the story so captivated him that he decided to become a watchmaker. He promptly enrolled in a watchmaking school full-time, and is now a rising star at a major watch company.

Anatomy of a $189,000 Breguet Watch

Penta watch columnist Paul Boutros explains the technological innovations, and craftsmanship, behind two of Breguet’s latest models.

Breguet’s history is that inspiring. And now, on its 240th anniversary, the company has just introduced new versions of its Tradition watch series, where the movements re-imagine the firm’s elegant 18th century pocket-watch aesthetics. A new automatic Tradition has a cool seconds subdial counting down 60 seconds before snapping back; an all-new minute repeater delicately chimes the hours. But the brand’s essence starts with Abraham-Louis Breguet, universally considered the greatest watchmaker of all time.

Breguet was born in 1747 in Neuchâtel, now part of Switzerland, and was just 11 years old when his father died. He worked for a watchmaker during his early teens, and moved to Paris in 1762 to become an apprentice under a watchmaker close to the Royal Court in Versailles. Near the center of French power, Breguet was mentored by several important figures who helped pass on a profound grasp of science and watchmaking. Among them: Ferdinand Berthoud, a watchmaker famous for precision clocks and marine chronometers, and Jean-Antoine Lépine, whose eponymous movement paved the way for thin watches that could comfortably fit in a gentleman’s pocket.


Breguet’s top La Tradition Tourbillon costs $189,700.Photograph: Courtesy of Breguet

Breguet founded his own watchmaking company in 1775 on the Quai de l’Horloge, on the banks of the River Seine near Notre Dame in Paris, setting out to technically advance watchmaking while placing equal emphasis on timepiece aesthetics. Thanks to the use of Lépine’s caliber, Breguet’s watches were, in the words of novelist Honoré de Balzac, “deliciously thin.” Breguet’s first major innovation was the Perpétuelle—the world’s first properly functioning self-winding watch. The Perpétuelle was perfected in 1780, and one of the first buyers was Queen Marie Antoinette, who purchased many watches from Breguet.

Famous for inventing the mesmerizing and gravity-defying tourbillon in 1801, Breguet also invented the pare-chute shock-protection mechanism—the basis for all modern shock-absorption systems protecting mechanical watches from damage when dropped. Perhaps less well known is his invention of the flat hammers and circular gongs used in nearly all minute repeaters, enabling striking watches to be thinner than ever.

Breguet also threw aside fancy ornamentation, common at the time, and instead created elegant and refined designs for his cases and dials. His numeral typography was made of slender and elegant Arabic numbers, known as Breguet numerals. In 1783, he introduced narrow pointed hands with an apple-shaped hole at their tips, now universally called Breguet hands. These timeless hallmarks of his style are still in use today, not only by the modern Breguet company, but also by brands like Patek Philippe and Cartier. Breguet collector Glen de Vries, co-founder and president of the life-science software company Medidata Solutions, says, “Are there really any hands more beautiful than Breguet hands? Are there really any typographic approaches more beautiful than Breguet numerals?”

Accomplished descendants took over the firm at Breguet’s death. His grandson and great-grandson were instrumental in developing the early telegraph and telephone, helping to launch their adoption across Europe. Their success in the electronics field finally led them to hand over the watchmaking company in 1870 to their top watchmaker, Edward Brown, while another descendant built Breguet Aviation, the firm that eventually became Dassault Aviation.

The Classique Chronométrie with its hyper-precise timekeeping. Photograph: Courtesy of Breguet

The Brown family led Breguet for the next 100 years, producing top-quality, Swiss-made luxury watches, while also supplying aviation instruments to Breguet Aviation, and military wristwatches, like the fiercely collected Type XX chronograph, to the French air force.

Enter the modern age. The jeweler Chaumet bought Breguet in 1970, and guided the brand through the low-cost quartz-watch revolution. Chaumet increased production but lost money on the brand every year until its bankruptcy in 1987, when the Bahrain-based private-equity pioneer Investcorp bought the watchmaker. In 1992, Investcorp acquired the movement maker Nouvelle Lemania, known for its exceptional chronograph movements found in many brands’ watches, including Omega’s legendary Speedmaster.

But the investment that was needed never happened under Chaumet or Investcorp, and Breguet’s sales and image lagged behind rivals’. Competitors like Patek Philippe and A. Lange & Söhne launched all new, in-house movements with state-of-the-art features, and offered them at lower retail prices than similar Breguet watches. That is when Breguet caught the eye of watch impresario Nicolas Hayek and his rapidly growing Swatch Group.

With the sales of Speedmasters rising fast in the late 1990s—the result of Swatch’s Omega turnaround (see Penta’s “Omega’s New Beginning,” Nov. 29, 2014)—Hayek wanted to buy the model’s movement maker, Nouvelle Lemania. Investcorp had united the firm with Breguet under the name Groupe Horloger Breguet; Hayek had to acquire the watch brand, as well.

Hayek did so in September 1999, and quickly realized that Breguet could be his vehicle to take on the industry’s most exclusive high-end watch brands. He promptly invested 15 million Swiss francs ($15.5 million) to refurbish Nouvelle Lemania, while integrating it with Breguet. Renamed Manufacture Breguet, the outfit could suddenly make entire Breguet watches, not just the movements.

All-new, in-house Breguet movements were created with the house’s signature invention—the tourbillon—at the core of Hayek’s early offerings. No slouch at promotion, Hayek trumpeted the 200th anniversary of the tourbillon’s patent date with a 2001 blowout party at Versailles. Sales of the gravity-smoothing tourbillon watches went from 150 in 1999 to 1,000 within five years. Other brands took note, and tourbillon production skyrocketed across the entire mechanical-watch industry as a direct result of Breguet’s intense marketing efforts.

Today, Breguet’s most prestigious tourbillon is the 2013-released La Tradition Tourbillon. Building on the original tourbillon from 1801, it incorporates modern materials throughout its in-house movement and components. The Tradition elements are mostly aesthetic, hearkening back to the brand’s original 18th and 19th century designs. It features, for example, an enormous tourbillon cage made of titanium. A constant-force mechanism ensures tightly regulated timekeeping as the watch’s power source—the mainspring—unwinds and loses energy, and that, too, affects the watch’s look. The tiered conical gear it uses is visible at 5 o’clock; a 155-link finely finished steel chain that connects to the mainspring is found at 9 o’clock. Available in rose gold, yellow gold, and platinum, it retails from $174,800 to $189,700.

But La Tradition’s innovations are mostly evolutionary. In contrast, the 2014 Classique Chronométrie 7727 deploys a revolutionary magnetic based escapement, which significantly improves timekeeping precision, and best captures, I feel, the technical ingenuity of Abraham-Louis Breguet. Marc Hayek, the current CEO of Breguet and other brands, and grandson of Nicolas Hayek, agrees. “The quest for precision was so important to him,” he says of Abraham-Louis.

A vintage aviation watch, inspiration for a new line of Breguet watches coming soon. Photograph: Courtesy of Breguet

In an unexpected twist, Breguet employed magnetism, the bane of mechanical watches, to re-engineer the most important component of accurate timekeeping—the escapement. Generally, the escapement’s balance wheel and its coiled hairspring oscillate back and forth to regulate the unwinding of the mainspring. The wheel itself is mounted on a shaft with pivots at each end, which for centuries have been inserted into pivot jewels. But since the pivots are in constant contact with the pivot jewels, the shaft is subject to varying amounts of friction due to gravity, and that hurts accuracy.

Breguet “broke free of horological taboos,” claims Hayek, and used magnetic force to redress the pivot friction errors. Two powerful micro magnets capped by jewels replace the pivot jewels, inducing a magnetic field in the balance staff. One more powerful than the other, the magnets effectively suspend the balance wheel, keeping it centered, its pivots merely touching the magnets’ jewel caps. Since the magnetic force far exceeds the force of gravity, frictional position errors are eliminated while overall friction is significantly reduced. The result is superb accuracy; an average rate performance of between -1 to +3 seconds per day easily beats the industry standard of -4 to +6 seconds. The watch, priced around $40,000 in rose or white gold, has collectors baying with excitement. Collector de Vries, an engineer at heart who loves Breguet’s focus on new technologies, purchased the Classique Chronométrie as soon as it was launched.

“When my grandfather took control of the brand in 1999, he had the vision to restore it to greatness by reviving its cultural and emotional dimensions,” says Hayek, 44. Following a similar path, the grandson has been busy acquiring original Breguet watches, displaying some 80 historic pieces in a museum at Breguet’s Place Vendôme boutique in Paris. Opened in 2000, the museum is headed by Emmanuel Breguet, the seventh-generation direct descendant of Abraham-Louis.

Smart move. Hayek is in effect buying in Breguet’s “shares outstanding,” and pushing the value of collectors’ stock further north. In 2012, for example, Breguet bought at auction a pocket watch, originally sold in 1814, for a record-breaking $4.25 million.

Today, Breguet offers five collections spanning ladies, classic dress, and the Type XX sport-watch lines, ranging in price from $17,800 to $734,000. Compared with the 4,000 watches made in 1999, a Bank Vontobel analyst today estimates 35,000 watches and sales of CHF720 million. Expect to see more cutting-edge materials in a new line of aviator watches, drawing on the brand’s aviation heritage. The firm’s biggest challenge, Hayek tells us, is to increase production to satisfy the brand’s growing demand—proof that the Swatch Group has Breguet well oiled and wound up.