>>> What to look at today - 20th of January 2015

US Market was closed for Martin Luther King Day.
Renewed hopes for further PBoC easing has given China markets a lift, reversing some of the largest losses in Shanghai Composite since 2007. China 2014 GDP of 7.4% beat 7.3% consensus, but still marked the first official miss since 1998 and also the lowest rate of growth in 24 years, as consumption component of GDP rose to 51.2% from 48.2% prior. Industrial production topped estimates, as power generation bounced by another 9.2% - well above the low power consumption figure estimated by the NEA last week. Retail sales were also marginally higher, while fixed asset investment hit multi-year lows. Stats Bureau official said the govt will look to maintain economy within reasonable range given the challenges being faced amid increasing urbanization and property sector adjustment. Also of note, CSRC official said the regulator's oversight into margin accounts was not intended to put pressure on the stock market, even though brokers were once again under pressure amid potential squeeze on trading volumes...IMF cut its global GDP forecast to 3.5% v 3.8% prior in 2015 and 3.7% from 4.0% prior in 2016. China and Japan were cut 0.3pts and 0.2pts to 6.8% and 0.6% respectively this year, while EM GDP is now seen at 4.3% v 5.0% prior. IMF remarked that dimming outlook worldwide underscores need for stronger policy action to boost growth, and that even the positive aspect of lower oil prices is offset by the broad slowdown. Finally, IMF called on the ECB to take aggressive easing measures in this week's decision.
Nikkei +2.07% Hang Seng +0.62% Shanghai +1.65%

RUB $64.97 RUB €75.21 WTI $47.40 Brent $48.59 CHF 0.8804 EURCHF 1.02

Eur$ 1.1571 S&P +0.25% EuroStoxx +0.62% Dax +0.50% SMI +1.12%

Macro :
- IMF’s Blanchard Says ECB Needs to Go Big on Quantitative Easing, IMF Cuts 2015 Global Growth forecast to 3.5% from 3.8%
- Greece’s Syriza Widens Lead in GPO Poll for Mega Channel
- Merkel Says ECB Moves Musn’t Lower Need to Boost Competitiveness
- ECB's Coeure (France): Reiterates view that Euro Area is facing extremely low inflation expectations
- U.K. Exit From European Union Seen Unlikely in Bloomberg Survey
- Germany’s Schaeuble Says Europe Must Consolidate Budgets
- Uncertainty Over Franc Rate May Last Months: Swiss Eco Minister


Keep an eye on :
- ADP FP : ADP Raises 2011-2015 Passenger Traffic Growth Target To 2.7%, Wants to Make Roissy Europe’s Biggest Intl Airport: Echos
- AZA IM : Alitalia to Earn Profit in 2017, Il Sole 24 Ore Reports
- CDI LN : Candover Seeks EU2.5b Parques Reunidos Sale: El Confidencial
- COTN SW : Comet FY Sales Rise ~16% to CHF288m, Sees Net of CHF25m-CHF27m
- AM FP : France Won’t Finance 100% of Egypt’s Rafale Purchase: Echos
- EDF FP : EDF to Keep Target of Positive Free Cash Flow in 2018: Echos
- ETX SS : Etrion CEO Likely to Add Fourth Market in 2015, SVD Reports
- FIA1S FH : Finnair’s Fuel Hedges Slow Benefit From Oil Drop: Kauppalehti
- HOLN VX : Lafarge, Holcim Cut to Neutral at UBS; CRH, Wolseley Top Picks
- KUNN VX : Kuoni Cuts Travel Prices From Switzerland as Franc Rises
- LOHN SW : Looser FY Net Revenues CHF487.4m, Down 0.8% After Adjustments
- LUX IM : Luxottica 2014 Rev. Beats Ests., Aims to Double Sales in Decade
- P1Z GY : Patrizia Says 2014 Unit Sales, AUM Growth Exceed Target
- PHIA NA : KKR, CVC Said to Have Joint Interest in Philips Lighting: FD
- RDSA NA : Shell Resumes Oil Output in Gabon After Industrial Strike Ends
- REP SM : Repsol Weighs Sale of Madrid Hq: Expansion
- SAP GY : SAP Cuts 2017 Profit Target; 2020 Cloud Rev. to Rise Fourfold
- STL NO : Statoil May Have Skipped Oil Sands Today, Executive Tells DN
- TEF SM : TalkTalk, Sky Have Approached Telefonica Over 02: Cinco Dias
- TILS LN : Tiziana Sees Orphan Drug’s Potential in Liver, Breast Cancers

>>> Brokers Upgrades & downgrades - 20th of January 2015

>>> Up
*BANCO POPULAR ESPANOL RAISED TO NEUTRAL AT CITI
*BBVA RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI
*CRODA RAISED TO EQUALWEIGHT VS UNDERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*LINDE RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*LUFTHANSA RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*OCI RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*PIRELLI RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*RUSAL RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*WILLIAM DEMANT RAISED TO BUY AT GOLDMAN

>>> Down
*ABB CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT CITI
*ALFA LAVAL CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT CITI
*COCA-COLA HBC CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*DEUTSCHE WOHNEN CUT TO SELL FROM HOLD AT BANKHAUS LAMPE
*DSM CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*EVRAZ CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*FAURECIA CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*FIELMANN CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT BERENBERG
*HOLCIM CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*LAFARGE CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*MONEYSUPERMARKET CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT CITI
*SAIPEM CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT MACQUARIE
*SYNGENTA CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*SWATCH CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT HSBC
*TECHNIP CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT MACQUARIE
*TMK CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*VISCOFAN CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*YANDEX CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*WOLTERS KLUWER CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS

>>> PT Changes


>>> Initiation
*KLOECKNER RATED NEW HOLD AT BERENBERG, PT EU9

>>> Call
>> Stock
*MAIL.RU GROUP REMOVED FROM GOLDMAN CEEMEA FOCUS LIST, STAYS BUY
*TOTAL REMOVED FROM JPMORGAN EUROPEAN ANALYST FOCUS LIST
>> Sector
*EUROPEAN FOOD RETAIL SECTOR RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT AT KEPLER
* European Chemicals May Face Slow Start to 2015, Barclays Says

>>> Brokers Upgrades & downgrades - 20th of January 2015

>>> Up
*BANCO POPULAR ESPANOL RAISED TO NEUTRAL AT CITI
*BBVA RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI
*CRODA RAISED TO EQUALWEIGHT VS UNDERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*LINDE RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*LUFTHANSA RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*OCI RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*PIRELLI RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*RUSAL RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*WILLIAM DEMANT RAISED TO BUY AT GOLDMAN

>>> Down
*ABB CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT CITI
*ALFA LAVAL CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT CITI
*COCA-COLA HBC CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*DEUTSCHE WOHNEN CUT TO SELL FROM HOLD AT BANKHAUS LAMPE
*DSM CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*EVRAZ CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*FAURECIA CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*FIELMANN CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT BERENBERG
*HOLCIM CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*LAFARGE CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*MONEYSUPERMARKET CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT CITI
*SAIPEM CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT MACQUARIE
*SYNGENTA CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*SWATCH CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT HSBC
*TECHNIP CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT MACQUARIE
*TMK CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*VISCOFAN CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*YANDEX CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*WOLTERS KLUWER CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS

>>> PT Changes


>>> Initiation
*KLOECKNER RATED NEW HOLD AT BERENBERG, PT EU9

>>> Call
>> Stock
*MAIL.RU GROUP REMOVED FROM GOLDMAN CEEMEA FOCUS LIST, STAYS BUY
*TOTAL REMOVED FROM JPMORGAN EUROPEAN ANALYST FOCUS LIST
>> Sector
* European Chemicals May Face Slow Start to 2015, Barclays Says

(NZZ.CH) Economy Minister Schneider-Ammann for SNB decision

Economy Minister Schneider-Ammann for SNB decision
"No time for bickering»

The Federal Council wants to strengthen with a bundle of measures the location of Switzerland after the SNB decision. The termination of the Bilateral now is certainly not an option, says Federal Councillor Johann Schneider-Ammann.
How do you assess the SNB decision, enter: violent hurricane with a definite end or as a long-term climate change?

It was the first thunderclap of a violent thunderstorm with uncertain duration.

With how long do you expect?

How to develop the exchange rates, nobody knows. The uncertainty will probably take at least weeks or months. Of course there is the hope that the price will stabilize at a level at which the economy can live.

Finance Minister Widmer-Schlumpf speaks of a franc-euro exchange rate, which will stabilize at CHF 1.10 and with the economy could live.

Since I am very cautious. Also, such a course would be for the machinery industry, of which I come from, a formidable challenge.

Where do you see the "real" exchange rate?

Until the SNB decision of purchasing power parity was significantly higher than 1 franc 20. The present route is not real economically justified, and 1 franc 10 would be from this point of view certainly too low. But that's the theory. Fact: The stress on the economy is great. The concerns of enterprises must be taken seriously. Many had last finally ground under their feet. They had fought back with all his strength a margin could invest again. Now they are thrown back to square one. The shock is particularly severe this time.

Has become part of the company relied too heavily on the lower limit as a hedge?

I resist strongly against the charge of the economy, they have not taken the time. The international competitors from the Far East or from the EU can calculate with much lower costs. I know of no company that has been resting at the minimum price. The Efforts were also made to secure jobs in Switzerland. I trust in the strength of the Swiss economy and appeal to companies to confront the challenge this time too combative, innovate and continue to invest here. We must ensure that companies find no other way out than to shift jobs abroad.

They are available as economy minister under a big pressure of expectation. Can you meet these expectations at all?

For the exchange rate, monetary policy of the National Bank is crucial. And the consequences of the strong franc can not resolve overnight, the minister said. In this respect, the expectations of me were already in 2011. unrealistic. But what I can and do: devote all my strength that the competitiveness of our location is recovered. This requires many small steps that make up much in the sum. A key element is the report on the new growth policy that is still being treated in the Bundesrat. The measures provided for therein have become more important and implement even faster.

If the report is revised in the light of the SNB decision?

No. We have already identified the measures previously areas.

What is the core of the program?

In my view, three strategic thrusts are necessary. First, labor productivity must be increased so that there continues to be growth, prosperity and secure jobs. This also helps to reduce the shortage of skilled workers. Great potential exists mainly in government-related areas such as administration, education and health care. Second, the economy has become more resilient. This includes to avoid that accumulate debt. Third, we need to better influence the side effects of the growth and use natural resources more efficiently. I put everything under my ultimate goal: give as each and every Swiss Swiss prospects by having a job. De-industrialization, we must avoid. Unbearable for me would be a youth unemployment rate of 30 or 50 per cent, as elsewhere in Europe.

Is this in conflict with the demands of business associations that are now rapidly require a cost reduction program?

No, on the contrary: Administrative relief means lower costs and higher productivity for the company. For this is all potential. So I have the Federal Office for Agriculture commissioned to systematically exempt all regulations of unnecessary administrative costs for the farmers. Two other examples: Fifteen cantons have agreed on a formal harmonization of the building regulations. When connect the other, lower costs. Switzerland would more competitive. However, government action is not only the state: The social partners should urgently reach an agreement on the acquisition of working hours. We have no time for bickering.

Such measures are only effective in the long term. Have you planned short term measures?

Security planning is central to the company in this situation. Only a clear commitment to the policy reforms are entrepreneurs now, the necessary assurance that they find here the best possible conditions, despite the strong Swiss franc, which we can not control for years. This affects the short and long term.

Give a stimulus package so a rejection?

I do not want to pre-empt any discussion in the Bundesrat. But economic support measures for the internal market in a threatening situation such as the present simple to fizzle. Helps distribute money in Switzerland neither to export products to bring more tourists to Switzerland. As long as we are not in a recession, a recovery plan in my view is not displayed.

The revision of antitrust law failed last year. Plan under changed sign a new edition?

We did not get through the revision of the Competition Act, because the original was overloaded from all sides. Is that changing now, it's only a matter of time until we restart the project in purposeful ways.

The Swiss Employers' Association calls for a reduction of wages, so that the cost of labor decreases. Is that necessary?

The social partners must negotiate wages with each other, at the industry level and in individual companies. On this principle, I do not rüttle. Wage issues are very sensitive, you have to approach it with tact. If employers and workers join together to compete, they find the right reward.

The Federal Council will soon decide on a negotiating mandate and a template for the implementation of large-scale immigration initiative that is inconsistent with the bilateral contracts. Should Switzerland given the economic situation really going on the offensive?

The Federal Council has confirmed in August that he has two goals: the implementation of Article 121 of the Federal Constitution and the protection and development of bilateral agreements with the European Union. At this thrust of the National Bank decision does not change anything. It is now important that we find a solution quickly. The economy needs planning. The sooner we are able to recover these, the more investments are made and the greater the chances that the jobs will be preserved.

And if this does not agree initiative and bilateral agreements?

The termination of the Bilateral is definitely not an option for me. The bilateral agreements shall not be questioned in the implementation of this initiative.

If the agreement with the EU actually existentially important?

Yes. I watched as an entrepreneur the time of non-tariff barriers to trade in Europe. Our machines had to be approved in each country tedious and expensive. The swiss enterprise would suffer tremendously if they could have done differently than their competitors to fight again with such hurdles. Combined with the current exchange rate would be an unsustainable deterioration in competitiveness.

You have gathered the social partners and other stakeholders at a round table three years ago. Plan now something similar?

I spoke in the evening immediately after the cancellation of the euro floor in a conference call with the President of the associations. We discussed the situation and agreed that we need to overcome this challenge together. I will bring together the actors in the coming weeks and physically at a round table.

FT:China GDP growth lowest in 24 years

China GDP growth lowest in 24 years

Men walk past a billboard promoting a real estate development in Beijing Saturday Dec. 9, 2006. China's central bank confirmed Saturday that it has ordered banks to buy more than US$20 billion in bonds in the latest effort to cool off a lending boom, a state news agency reported. The bond sale is meant to help cool off a boom in real estate development and bank credit by reducing the amount of money available for lending. China's government worries that runaway lending could ignite inflation or a financial crisis at a time when China's economic growth is racing ahead at an annual rate of more than 10 percent. (AP Photo/Greg Baker)©AP
China’s economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly a quarter of a century last year, even as it overtook the US to become the world’s largest in purchasing power terms.
The annual expansion of 7.4 per cent in 2014 is the slowest since 1990, when the country faced international sanctions in the wake of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.

China’s economy grew 7.7 per cent each year in 2012 and 2013 and until 2010 it had managed to maintain an average growth rate of more than 10 per cent for over 30 years.
The economy is expected to continue its slowdown in the coming years, partly as a result of its far larger size — 7 per cent growth this year is equivalent in absolute terms to 10 per cent growth just a couple of years ago.
But as the world’s most populous nation approaches middle-income levels its credit-fuelled, investment-led growth model, with its reliance on low wages, polluting industries and real estate construction, is also running out of steam.
A slowdown in the overheated real estate market that began last year is expected to continue this year, a further blow to industries such as steel, cement and glass that are suffering from chronic overcapacity.
Since the global financial crisis, when Beijing launched a massive stimulus programme to cushion a collapse in Chinese exports, debt levels have also soared across the economy, particularly in the corporate sector and among local governments.
Last week the World Bank lowered its growth forecast for China this year to 7.1 per cent, from the 7.2 per cent pace it projected in October and its estimate of 7.5 per cent as recently as June.
“Although a low-probability risk given significant policy buffers, the slowdown in China could turn into a disorderly unwinding of financial vulnerabilities with considerable implications for the global economy,” the bank said in a report released last week.
Beijing’s priority is to create sufficient jobs, and as the working age population shrinks this pressure eases, contributing to a willingness to accept slower GDP growth rates.
The new numbers mark the first time since 1998, when the economy was buffeted by the Asian financial crisis, that growth has slipped below the Communist party’s annual gross domestic product target, which was set at “around” 7.5 per cent for 2014.
The only other year official growth has been below the target since the government began publicly announcing them in 1985 was in 1989.

As recently as 2010, the Communist party estimated it needed annual growth of at least 8 per cent to avoid job losses and social unrest that could threaten its grip on power.
But when it announces its 2015 GDP target in March, the party is expected to lower it to “around 7 per cent”.
After a change in methodology last year, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund estimated China’s economy would surpass that of the US in 2014 in terms of purchasing power parity.
This measure attempts to account for differences in prices of non-tradable goods and services in different economies.

The Chinese government disputes the methodology and the estimate and tried for nearly a year to block publication of the report showing it now has the world’s biggest economy.
In US dollar exchange-rate terms, the size of China’s economy is around $10tn, while that of the US is a bit bigger than $17.5tn.
In terms of GDP per capita, the IMF ranks China 89th in the world, with a population roughly as wealthy as that of Peru or the Maldives.
“It is very hard to work out the true value of non-traded goods and services across different economies and anyway it is pretty unimportant which economy is the largest overall,” said Gerard Burg, senior economist for Asia at the National Australia Bank. “The per capita approach is far more insightful [than the purchasing power measure] when comparing the relative wealth of different economies.”

>>> Asian Update

Asian Mid-session Update: China 2014 GDP slows to 24-year low, misses target for the first time since '98; IMF cuts global growth targets

***Economic Data***
- (CN) CHINA Q4 GDP Q/Q: 1.5% V 1.7%E; Y/Y: 7.3% V 7.2%E
- (CN) CHINA 2014 URBAN FIXED ASSETS: 15.7% V 15.7%E; Fresh 13-year low
- (CN) CHINA DEC INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 7.9% (3-month high) V 7.4%E; INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION YTD Y/Y: 8.3% V 8.2%E
- (CN) CHINA DEC RETAIL SALES Y/Y: 11.9% (4-month high) V 11.7%E; 2014 RETAIL SALES: 12.0% V 12.0%E
- (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 113.6 v 112.0 prior
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q4 NZIER BUSINESS OPINION SURVEY: 23 V 19 PRIOR

***Index Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +1.7%, S&P/ASX flat, Kospi +0.7%, Shanghai Composite +1.8%, Hang Seng +0.7%, Mar S&P500 +1.3% at 2,015,

***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Feb gold flat at $1,277, Mar crude oil flat at $47.70/brl, Mar Copper +0.6% at $2.59/lb
- JGB: (JP) Japan's MoF sells ¥2.50T in 0.1% (0.1% prior) 5-yr notes; Avg yield: 0.00% v 0.083% prior; Bid to cover: 4.38x v 4.24x prior
- (CN) PBoC won't conduct open market operations (OMO) in today's session (15th consecutive halt)

***Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX***
- Renewed hopes for further PBoC easing has given China markets a lift, reversing some of the largest losses in Shanghai Composite since 2007. China 2014 GDP of 7.4% beat 7.3% consensus, but still marked the first official miss since 1998 and also the lowest rate of growth in 24 years, as consumption component of GDP rose to 51.2% from 48.2% prior. Industrial production topped estimates, as power generation bounced by another 9.2% - well above the low power consumption figure estimated by the NEA last week. Retail sales were also marginally higher, while fixed asset investment hit multi-year lows. Stats Bureau official said the govt will look to maintain economy within reasonable range given the challenges being faced amid increasing urbanization and property sector adjustment. Also of note, CSRC official said the regulator's oversight into margin accounts was not intended to put pressure on the stock market, even though brokers were once again under pressure amid potential squeeze on trading volumes.

- IMF cut its global GDP forecast to 3.5% v 3.8% prior in 2015 and 3.7% from 4.0% prior in 2016. China and Japan were cut 0.3pts and 0.2pts to 6.8% and 0.6% respectively this year, while EM GDP is now seen at 4.3% v 5.0% prior. IMF remarked that dimming outlook worldwide underscores need for stronger policy action to boost growth, and that even the positive aspect of lower oil prices is offset by the broad slowdown. Finally, IMF called on the ECB to take aggressive easing measures in this week's decision.

- Ahead of tomorrow's BOJ decision, Econ Min Amari said it was up to the central bank to make additional policy adjustment decisions, particularly if they feel the price target is difficult to achieve. USD/JPY rose about 70pips in the session toward 118.30 session high, and AUD/USD was down about 40pips below 0.8180 despite the initial bounce from China data. CHF gains have been pared further in the US hours, as USD/CHF rose about 100pips to $0.88

- In Australia, Rio Tinto put out its quarterly production figures that saw annual output largely in line with consensus. Iron ore production of 79.1M rose from 76.8M tons q/q, and up 12% y/y. Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence bounced, and iron ore shipping ports were reopened after yesterday's cyclone threat.

***Equities***
US markets:
- MOS: Guides Q4 $0.83-0.88 v $0.59e
- DWA: Said to cut as many as 400 jobs (about 18% of workforce) - LA Times
- GOOG: Said to near $1B investment in SpaceX to deliver internet access through satellites - financial press

Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: Seiko Holdings Corp 8050.JP -2.5% (press speculation on Q3 results); Gree Electric Appliances 000651.CN +2.7% (prelim FY14 results); Toyota: To start sales of a new Prius model
- Financials: Macquarie Group MQG.AU +3.3% (analyst action); CITIC Securities 600030.CN -8.4%, Haitong Securities 600837.CN -7.3%, GF Securities 000776.CN -5.9% (momentum on CSRC's halt of new margin accounts)
- Materials: Atlas Iron AGO.AU -5.3% (Q2 production results); Perseus Mining PRU.AU -2.8% (Q2 production results); Base Resources BSE.AU -3.0% (Q3 production results); Resolute Mining RSG.AU -2.6% (Q2 production results); Sirius Resources SIR.AU +8.7% (announces gold discovery); Rio Tinto RIO.AU -0.1% (Q4 production results); OceanaGold Corp OGC.AU +4.2% (2014 production results)
- Industrials: GUD Holdings GUD.AU +6.0% (H1 results)
- Technology: UXC Ltd UXC.AU +8.1% (H1 guidance); GungHo Online Entertainment 3765.JP +2.5% (press speculation on FY14 results); ZTE Corp 000063.CN +4.9% (prelim FY14 results); Samsung Electronics 005930.KR +1.0% (to consider stock split)

WSJ : Fed Officials on Track to Raise Short-Term Rates Later in the Year

Fed Officials on Track to Raise Short-Term Rates Later in the Year
While Europeans Weigh Bond-Buying Program to Boost Growth, U.S. Officials Are Upbeat on America’s Economic Prospects

Federal Reserve officials are on track to start raising short-term interest rates later this year, even though long-term rates are going in the other direction amid new investor worries about weak global growth, falling oil prices and slowing consumer price inflation.

After their next policy meeting Jan. 27-28, officials are likely to repeat in their statement that they can “be patient” about rate increases. That means no moves for at least the next two meetings—or not until June at the earliest, they have indicated in recent public statements and interviews. At the same time they aren’t likely to signal an alarm about developments abroad that would indicate a meaningful shift in their plans.

Many Fed officials have signaled they expect to start lifting their benchmark short-term rate from near zero around the middle of the year. Recent developments in the economy and markets have caused some trepidation among Fed officials and, if sustained, could cause them to delay acting. However several have indicated recently they still expect to move this year and are withholding judgment on delay.

“I think it is important to get started and to start normalizing policy,” St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal on Monday. “Even once we start to normalize, interest rates would be extraordinarily low.”

While European officials are near launching a new bond-buying program known as quantitative easing to boost feeble growth and low inflation, Fed officials are generally upbeat about U.S. economic prospects. U.S. inflation is below the Fed’s 2% objective, but the unemployment rate fell—to 5.6% in December, which many Fed officials take as a sign that wage and price pressures could be building in the domestic economy. They have held short-term rates near zero since December 2008 and want to start moving them up before those pressures gather force.

Some investors have been betting the Fed will hold off on rate increases. In fed funds futures markets—where traders stake out positions on the expected Fed target rate—the average expected rate for the month of June has drifted down from 0.20% to 0.16% since the beginning of the year, a sign investors in these markets see a diminished likelihood of a midyear rate increase.

“I would have guessed June up until this past week,” Harvard University economics professor Jeremy Stein, a former Fed governor, said in an interview last week.

One worrying development for Fed officials is a drop in yields on 10-year Treasury notes below 2%. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said in an interview last week the decline raised questions about whether investors believe the Fed’s forecast that inflation will rise toward 2% in coming years. Treasury yields tend to move in line with inflation. If investors believed inflation was set to rise, yields on government bonds would be rising, not falling.

But other officials believe the drop in bond yields is being caused primarily by global capital flows–most notably a rush of investors into U.S. assets and out of lower-yielding European investments. These officials are prepared to look through the drop in bond yields for now until there is more convincing evidence U.S. inflation has taken a sustained turn lower.

The Labor Department reported Friday the U.S. consumer price index rose just 0.8% in December from a year earlier, well below the Fed’s goal. But the weak reading is being driven largely by falling energy prices, something officials believe will pass.

Excluding volatile food and energy items, so-called core prices rose 1.6% on the year. That’s slower than a 1.7% annual gain in November and 1.8% in October. If sustained it could cause Fed officials to change their plans, but so far many officials don’t believe the inflation backdrop has materially shifted.

The worry is that inflation well below the 2% goal goes hand-in-hand with a soft economy.

“The level of inflation is not so low that it can alone justify a policy rate of zero,” Mr. Bullard said in a speech Friday. He wants the Fed to start raising rates by March, earlier than most other officials.

San Francisco Fed President John Williams said in a speech Friday the middle of the year may still be the best time for the U.S. central bank to increase rates.

Given the health of the broader economy, “what I’m really watching for is underlying inflation—wage growth, prices,” he told reporters later. “My forecast is once we get through this slow path in inflation it will start moving back,” he said, adding, “I’m not expecting inflation to be 2% when we raise interest rates. I don’t need to be at the goal when we raise the rates.”

While Fed officials appear likely to stay the course at their coming meeting, they are heading toward important and potentially difficult decisions at their subsequent meeting in March. If they are to raise rates by June, they would signal it in March by removing from their statement the language about patience. Continued declines in core inflation or bond yields at that point could convince them to delay such a shift. On the other hand further gains in employment and economic growth would encourage them to proceed toward rate increases.

Central to their internal deliberations ahead of the March meeting is a debate about how low the jobless rate can fall before it stirs wage and inflation pressure. Fed officials estimate the “natural rate” of unemployment—meaning the rate below which wage pressures increase—is between 5.2% and 5.5%.

Mr. Rosengren said he was considering revising this estimate down because the jobless rate has fallen to near the 5.2%-5.5% range without triggering any sign of wage pressure. He said he suspected some of his Fed colleagues also were considering moving this estimate down. The lower the estimate goes, the more patient they might be before raising rates.

REuters - 3 days out, Bundesbank striving to put limits on ECB money-printing

3 days out, Bundesbank striving to put limits on ECB money-printing - RTRS

FRANKFURT, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Germany's Bundesbank is mounting a last-ditch drive to limit money-printing by the ECB, hoping either to soften the blueprint or delay decisions on key parts beyond this week, people familiar with the debate say.
With markets primed for a European Central Bank announcement on Thursday, Germany's central bank is worried that a programme to buy government bonds would leave it on the hook for any losses.
No final decision on the plan has been made and the Bundesbank is still seeking safeguards, including a likely move to make national central banks rather than the ECB bear much of the risk for buying the bonds of euro zone member states.
The size of the programme to buy bonds, known as quantitative easing, and a possible delay to its launch are also part of the debate.
"What exactly comes and in what dosage, that's where the real action is at the moment," said one person familiar with Bundesbank thinking. "It could be that the decision is taken with details to follow."
Although the Bundesbank's position within the ECB carries huge weight because Germany is the bloc's biggest economy, its allies are few in number on the 25-strong Governing Council.
The ECB's Executive Board, the six-person team that is at the core of decision-making, will meet on Tuesday to prepare recommendations to the wider group including central bankers from Athens to Rome, who gather from Wednesday.
By postponing the announcement of elements of the plan, ECB President Mario Draghi could avoid a clash - at least for now - with Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann and his supporters, but at the risk of a dangerous market backlash.
Investors are already jittery after the Swiss central bank's surprise move last week to scrap a cap on the franc.
The ECB declined to comment.
The Bundesbank wants national central banks to bear the risk, an idea that some critics say heralds the disintegration of the euro but which may nonetheless be part of the final plan, sources have told Reuters. It also wants a limit on bond-buying. (Full Story)
"The Bundesbank's position has not changed," said another person familiar with the matter. "This would be nothing less than eurobonds by the back door."
Speaking last week, Weidmann signalled that his critical position was unchanged.
"I think that it is likely that there will be an announcement on Thursday, with details following later," said Francesco Papadia, the former head of the ECB's financial market operations.
"It is in keeping with Draghi's salami-type communication style."
International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde said QE should involve as much risk-sharing as possible.
"The more efficient it is, the more mutualisation there is the better," she told a news conference in Dublin.
Many in German Chancellor Angela Merkel's political camp are privately critical of a move to print fresh money, believing it can do little to lift sagging economic growth or encourage bank lending. Nonetheless, the government would be loath to attempt publicly to put a brake on the ECB.
Merkel downplayed the likely impact of the ECB's decision and Greek elections three days later, saying she did not view this week as one of "destiny for the euro".
But one senior lawmaker from Merkel's conservatives, Norbert Barthle, told Reuters he was "not convinced of the need for a massive programme to buy state debt".
"The sensible thing would be to wait for the measures taken already to have their effect first," said the budgetary affairs spokesman for the conservatives in the lower house.
Merkel's spokesman Steffen Seibert declined to give details of her meeting with ECB President Mario Draghi last week.

>>> Afren obvious target for T5 reverse takeover – T5 MD

Afren obvious target for T5 reverse takeover – T5 MD

T5 Oil & Gas, the Africa-focused exploration and production firm, is seeking a reverse takeover, and views Afren [LON:AFR] as a possible target, T5 Managing Director Gerry Sheehan said.

T5, which has hired Hannam Partners to advise on the potential deal, has short-listed up to four companies that it is in discussions with; all are distressed. The firm hopes to finalise a deal within the next three months, Sheehan added.

“Afren is an obvious target. It has a lot of strong assets, although they would take a bit of fixing. Afren is on everybody’s list,” he said.

Hit by a series of scandals, Afren recently fired its CEO and COO over the receipt of unauthorised payments. Its share price was further dented earlier this month when it announced it has overestimated the oil reserves at its licenses in Kurdistan. The company’s share price has plummeted by 83% in the last 12 months. On Monday afternoon its shares were trading down 9.09% at GBP 0.27, giving it a market capitalisation of GBP 308.5m.

On 8 January SEPLAT [LON:SEPL] confirmed it had approached Afren over a potential takeover. The group has until 5pm today, 19 January, to make an offer or walk away, unless it secures a deadline extension from the Takeover Panel. This news service has previously reported that other firms have also expressed interest in acquiring Afren.

T5, which is looking to spend up to USD 800m on the reverse takeover, is looking at firms that have producing assets of about GBP 1500bbl/day in North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa.

T5, formed in 2013, has one asset; a 90% stake in the Louga block onshore Senegal. The remaining 10% is held by Petrosen, the Senegalese national oil company. T5’s board comprises of a number of former executives from Tullow [LON:TLW].

Last year T5 said it intended to list on London’s AIM exchange either in 4Q14 or 1Q15. The crash in oil prices, however, spurred the firm to pursue a reverse takeover instead.

“There are a lot of good companies that cannot access funding to develop good assets,” Sheehan said. “The oil price is giving lots of opportunity; there are a lot of targets that are cheap.”

T5 is also looking to reduce its stake in the 27,000-sq-km Louga licence. T5 is hoping to complete a seismic survey of the licence by the end of the first half of the year, and would like to find a partner to do this. The firm would like to reduce its stake to about 50%, and is in discussions with two companies. T5 is hoping to finalise the deal by the end of 1Q15.

T5 plans to farm down Louga again at the drilling stage, which would leave the firm with an equity stake of between 25% and 30%, Sheehan said.