Asian Mid-session Update: China inflation falls to 5-year lows
***Economic Data***
- (CN) CHINA JAN CPI Y/Y: 0.8% V 1.0%E (5-year low)
- (CN) CHINA JAN PPI Y/Y: -4.3% V -3.8%E (35TH STRAIGHT MONTH OF DECLINE; biggest decline in 5 years)
- (AU) AUSTRALIA JAN NAB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 3 (3-month high) V 2 PRIOR; CONDITIONS: 2 (4-month low) V 2 PRIOR
- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q4 HOUSE PRICE INDEX Q/Q: 1.9% V 1.8%E; Y/Y: 6.8% V 7.1%E (6-quarter low)
- (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 111.7 v 112.4 prior
- (NZ) New Zealand Jan ANZ Heavy Truckometer: 0.9% v 3.4% prior
- (JP) JAPAN Q4 HOUSING LOANS Y/Y: 2.5% V 2.8% PRIOR
- (JP) JAPAN DEC TERTIARY INDUSTRY INDEX M/M: -0.3% V 0.0%E
- (JP) JAPAN JAN M2 MONEY SUPPLY Y/Y: 3.4% V 3.6%E (3-month low); M3 MONEY SUPPLY Y/Y: 2.8% V 2.9%E
- (KR) South Korea Jan department store sales -9.7% y/y (biggest drop on record) v -0.9% prior, discount store sales -20.7% y/y (worst decline since Feb 2014) v -3.8% prior
- (UK) UK JAN BRC SALES LFL Y/Y: 0.2% V 0.5%E
***Index Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 -0.8%, S&P/ASX -0.5%, Kospi -0.3%, Shanghai Composite +0.8%, Hang Seng -0.1%, Mar S&P500 +0.1% at 2,044
***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Apr gold +0.1% at $1,243, Mar crude oil -0.1% at $52.19/brl
- IEA: Oil market is rebalancing and price recovery is inevitable
- (CN) PBoC to inject CNY55B in 21-day reverse repos and CNY25B in 14-day reserve repos (6th consecutive injection)
***Market Focal Points/FX***
- Renewed uncertainty regarding the impact of a potential Grexit has wounded risk-on sentiment, translating into losses in US indices as well as most of the Asia region. Shanghai Composite is the standout performer, but only because a 5-year low in CPI and the biggest drop since 2009 in PPI has further stoked expectations of continued easing by the PBoC. China Stats Bureau noted the decline in CPI is mainly due to lower food prices, however food CPI y/y was still up 1.1%, while non-food was up a meager 0.6%. Following the inflation figures, ANZ economists said PBoC is now likely to lower deposit rates by another 25bps in Q1, followed by RRR cut of 50bps in Q2. Earlier, Chinese press report citing State Information Center think tank forecasted 2015 GDP at 7.1%, down from 7.4% in 2014.
- AUD/USD was up as much as 50pips at $0.7840 high following China CPI, even though NAB Business conditions/confidence figures were mixed. NAB chief economist remarked sentiment "remains very weak in mining, consistent with lower commodity prices... Fundamentally, we still see the need for another cut to counter lower commodity prices and other domestic headwinds." Separately, Q4 housing price index y/y slowed to a 6-quarter low rate of growth. Recall in the most recent decision, RBA was notably less worried about the possibility of a property market bubble.
- USD/JPY traded in a narrow 25pip range around 118.40 amid further consolidation of post-NFP gains on Friday. Earlier, a Nikkei report projected the govt would likely miss its goal of 2020 budget surplus, noting that even under the most favorable scenario of nominal GDP of 3% and real growth in 2% range, along with expected consumption tax hike in 2017, budget deficit would hit ¥9.4T.
***Equities***
US markets:
- ARO: Raises Q4 guidance to -$0.06 to -$0.01 v -$0.30e, R$595M v $575Me; Appoints new CFO; +23.9% afterhours
- URBN: Reports Q4 R$1.01B v $992Me; +7.0% afterhours
- QCOM: Guides FY15 higher to $4.85-5.05 v $4.97e, R$26.3-28B v $27.2Be; Announces resolution with China NDRC ($4.75-5.05, R$26-28B prior); +2.8% afterhours
- NTES: Reports Q4 $1.56 v $1.58e, R$593.7M v $520Me; +2.6% afterhours
- MOH: Reports Q4 $0.69 v $0.60e, R$2.80B v $2.82Be; +1.0% afterhours
- GPS: Reports prelim Q4 $0.73-0.74 v $0.68e, Reports Jan SSS -3% v -1%e; +0.5% afterhours
- COUP: Reports Q4 -$0.02 v $0.04e, R$60.0M v $63.5Me; approves $50M buyback program (4.3% of market cap); -28.3% afterhours
Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: Slater & Gordon SGH.AU +5.0% (H1 results)
- Financials: China Merchants Properties 000024.CN +2.4% (despite weak Jan sales result); New World China Land 917.HK -4.2% (issues profit warning)
- Materials: Syrah Resources SYR.AU +6.5% (enters sales & purchase agreement)
- Industrials: Bradken Ltd BKN.AU -21.9% (H1 results); Daikin Industries 6367.JP -5.3% (9-month results); Nissan Motor 7201.JP +3.3% (9-month results)