>>> Salix rejects several bid approaches from Endo

Salix rejects several bid approaches from Endo 

Salix Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:SLXP), a North Carolina-based drug manufacturer, has rejected several bid approaches from Ireland-based rival Endo International, according to a newswire report. A Reuters report on Friday evening, 13 February cited a person familiar with the matter who said Endo is still interested in Salix despite the target company rebuffing several written expressions of interest in a takeover.

Spokespersons for Salix and Endo were not immediately available for comment, the item said.

As previously reported, Valeant Pharmaceuticals International (NYSE:VRX) and Shire (NASDAQ:SHPG) have also been preparing to make offers for Salix.

Salix is considering its options, the item said, noting that the company is currently having issues with inventory and is making management changes.

Salix’s market capitalisation stood at USD 9.70bn (EUR 8.51bn) at the close of trading in New York on Friday.

Background:
Reuters reported last month that Salix had hired Centerview Partners to advise on a potential sale.

>>> Afren could lose assets due to change of ownership clauses if it enters admi

Afren could lose assets due to change of ownership clauses if it enters administration; Nigerian groups not interested in Nigerian and Kurdish assets

Afren could lose assets if the UK-listed oil company defaults on its loans and enters administration, according to analysts cited by a Financial Times report. The newspaper’s market report section quoted analysts at FirstEnergy who said it is understood that key Afren assets, such as the Okoro and Ebok prospects in Nigeria, are subject to change of ownership clauses.

As previously reported, Afren announced on Friday, 13 February that it had ended discussions with the Nigerian oil company Seplat regarding a takeover of the UK-listed company. Afren shareholders are more hopeful that the company can agree a restructuring with its creditors following yesterday’s announcement, the item said.

Separately, a report in The Times said Nigerian oil production companies are not thought to be looking to acquire Afren’s undeveloped assets in Iraq’s Kurdish region and East Africa. The newspaper did not cite a source for the claim. The article went on to cite City speculation that the lack of interest in those assets makes a break-up of the group more likely.

Afren’s share price closed 0.165p up at 7.275p in London on Friday, giving the company a market capitalisation of GBP 80.5m (EUR 108.7m).

(ZH) Goldman Warns Over-Supply Means Oil Prices Will Be Much Lower


Goldman Warns Over-Supply Means Oil Prices Will Be Much Lower

US Daily: Oil Supply versus Demand: A Market Perspective
  • We use statistical techniques to explore the drivers of the sharp drop in oil prices since last summer. The idea behind our approach is to use the behavior of oil and equity prices to disentangle demand from supply shifts.Intuitively, we would expect that positive demand shocks should push both equity and oil prices up, while positive supply shocks should push equities up and oil prices down.
  • Our model suggests that the vast majority of the decline in oil prices until November 2014 was driven by perceptions of improved supply. The continued sell-off in December and January was driven by perceptions of both improving supply and slowing demand. The latest rebound in oil--which started in late January--appears to be driven by a mix of demand and supply.
  • Although our approach is subject to a number of caveats, the main conclusion is consistent with our commodities team's views, who have argued that the decline in oil has been driven by an oversupplied global oil market.
Oil prices have fallen substantially since last summer. Crude West Texas Intermediate (WTI), for example, fell by about 60% between June and January, before starting to rebound somewhat in February. In today’s comment we use statistical techniques to explore the drivers of these changes in the oil price.
The idea behind our approach is to use the behavior of oil and equity prices to disentangle demand from supply shifts. Intuitively, we would expect that positive demand shocks should push both equity and oil prices up, while positive supply shocks should push equities up and oil prices down. We therefore call anything that pushes oil and equities in the same direction a “demand” shock and anything that pushes them in opposite directions a “supply” shock. (This approach is the same as the one used by our colleagues in the Asia economics team, see here.)
The intuition can be seen qualitatively in the chart below which shows the S&P 500 and WTI since January 1, 2005, using daily data. Equities and oil generally both rose between 2005 and 2007, suggesting that strong demand was the primary driver of both. From late 2007, however, equity prices started to soften while crude oil prices continued to rise sharply, pointing to supply "bottlenecks" during this time. Demand was clearly the key driver during the financial crisis, as both equities and oil both plummeted in late summer 2008 and then bounced back in 2009-2010. Oil prices then remained flat between 2011 and the summer of 2014 while equity prices rose significantly. This behavior is consistent with improvements in energy supply--primarily through shale gas--during this time. Oil prices then plummeted in the second half of 2014 but equity prices generally continued to climb, suggesting that supply factors were the key driver.
We then use statistical techniques (a so-called vector autoregression with sign restrictions) to quantify the underlying shocks. More specifically, the methodology provides an estimated decomposition of observed changes in equity prices and oil into underlying shocks by labeling positive co-movements as demand shocks and divergent moves as supply shocks. We focus on daily percent changes in the S&P 500 and WTI oil prices since January 1, 2005, and de-mean both to abstract from their trends during this period. It is important to stress that this approach uses only the time variation of oil and equities—and no other information such as actual economic data—to identify the shocks.
Exhibit 2 shows the estimated demand and supply shocks, cumulated since 2005. The demand pattern looks quite intuitive with strong demand 2005-2008, a collapse in late 2008, strengthening demand from early 2013 and some deceleration more lately. Broadly consistent with our discussion above, the oil supply pattern shows a sharp adverse oil supply shock starting in late 2007, then basically no change between late 2009 and 2011, gradual positive supply shocks 2012-13 and then a sharp increase in supply in the second half of 2014.
We next use our estimated model to decompose the history of oil and equity prices into contributions from demand and supply shocks. Exhibit 3 shows this decomposition since the summer of last year. Our model suggests that the vast majority of the decline in oil until November was driven by perceptions of improved supply. The continued sell-off in December and January, however, was driven by perceptions of both improving supply and slowing demand. The latest rebound in oil--which started in late January--appears to be driven by both demand and supply.
The main conclusion from our analysis is intuitive and consistent with our commodities team's views, who have argued that the decline in oil has been driven by an oversupplied global oil market. As a result, our commodities team expects that the new equilibrium price of oil will likely be much lower than over the past decade. Also, our framework appears reasonably robust to changes in the input variables. For example, we obtained similar results for Brent crude oil prices and when excluding energy stocks from the S&P 500.
*  *  *
Nonetheless, we need to keep in mind that our analysis is subject to a number of caveats. First, the estimated shocks not only reflect genuine demand and supply news in the oil market—but simply anything that pushes oil prices and equities in the desired direction. For example, the positive supply shock of recent months may represent not only genuine increases in supply in the oil market but also lower global inflation more generally. Second, our analysis can only help us understand market perceptions, as we only use market prices without any additional economic information. The model, therefore,cannot tell us what the “true” underlying drivers are. Finally, our model does not model explicitly other economic developments that affect equity and oil prices, including shifts in inflation and monetary policy.

(TechCrunch) Mobile Unicorns Multiply To Hit A Quarter Of A Trillion Dollars



From: thechek@mac.com At: Feb 15 2015 14:32:20
To: LAURENT CHEKROUN (MAKOR SECURITIES LLP)
Subject: Fwd:(TechCrunch) Mobile Unicorns Multiply To Hit A Quarter Of A Trillion Dollars

Mobile Unicorns Multiply To Hit A Quarter Of A Trillion Dollars

Back when dinosaurs roamed the Earth (in late 2013), there were 38 tech unicorns worth over $130 billion. Mobile Internet has changed things in the last 12 months. A lot. Sixty-eight mobile unicorns added $28 billion shareholder value in Q4 2014 to become worth $261 billion. Or a quarter of a trillion dollars. That’s excluding Facebook (64 percent mobile revenue, 59 percent mobile only users, 84 percent total mobile users), which at over $200 billion skews the analysis. 

What Is the Collective Noun for Unicorns?

Although unicorns are rare mythical beasts, surprisingly there is a collective noun for them: a “blessing of unicorns.” As it wouldn’t look right for a blessing of mobile unicorns to live in a stable, we’ve put them in one of our valuation pyramids.

Mobile internet billions valuation pyramid

There are many striking things about this pyramid, including its size at 68 companies and counting, that it accounts for the bulk of tech unicorns globally, and the companies themselves. Some are household names like Uber and Twitter, but others, such as iQiyi orMogujie, you might not know so well.

30 Tim Cooks a Day

To put the $28 billion value added last quarter in perspective, that’s $300 million — or more than 30 Tim Cooks (who got paid over $9 million last year) a day.

Uber, SnapchatFlipkart and Meituan added the most value per company, and 15 new mobile Internet unicorns joined the club. But it wasn’t all smooth sailing, as 14 of the billion-dollar companies lost value (in some cases multiple billions of dollars).

Admission also doesn’t guarantee lifetime membership, with two former unicorns falling below $1 billion in Q4 for a total of five dropouts last year.

Pareto Rules

Pareto’s 80/20 rule was on the money: 20 companies drive 70 percent of all the value in the mobile Internet billions list. The top five (from Uber to LINE) are worth over 40 percent, the top 10 (adding from Snapchat to Square) over half, the top 20 (adding from Pinterest to Gungho) over 70 percent, and the top 30 (adding from Wanda E-Commerce to Momo) over 80 percent. Not all unicorns are created equal.

Mobile internet billions value distribution

The Next Unicorn Could Come from Any Mobile Internet Sector

The $261 billion value of the mobile Internet billions list is spread across sectors, with six sectors accounting for 89 percent at $229 billion.

The big six sectors are travel/transport (including Uber, Didi Dache and Yongche), mCommerce (dominated by Asian companies, such as FlipkartSnapdeal and One97), social networking (including Twitter and Snapchat, and which should count Facebook but doesn’t because it swamps everything else), messaging (such as WhatsApp and Daumkakao), games (with 11 companies from King to GREE) and utilities (like UCWeb).

However, there are 16 mobile Internet sectors on the list, so the next unicorn could come from any sector.

Mobile internet billions sector value

America Dominates by Value, Asia by Volume

America is the king of mobile Internet value creation, with 24 companies delivering $144 billion of shareholder value or over half of all the value in the list. This is partly due to monster valuations of some U.S. players (including Uber, WhatsApp, Twitter and Snapchat over $10 billion), with an average U.S. company worth $6 billion.

Asia dominates by volume with 38 companies worth $102 billion, but its $2.7 billion average valuation is less than half that of America. Yet Asia is accelerating compared to the West, with 12 out of 15 new entrants coming from China, India, South Korea, Singapore and Malaysia.

China holds the speed record with Wanda E-Commerce worth $3.2 billion only four months after it was founded by illustrious parents Wanda, Tencent and Baidu.

Mobile internet billions value map

Perhaps the most exciting thing about the list is its link to fundamental growth. With over $700 billion mobile Internet revenue forecast for 2017, the mobile Internet billions list could pass $300 billion by the end of the year.

The full list is here. Note the companies listed all have substantial parts of their business from mobile Internet, but exclude mobile infrastructure, e.g. Qualcomm, device, e.g. Apple or substantial but minority mobile Internet businesses, e.g. Tencent with WeChat. The valuations come from a mix of stock markets, acquisitions and fundraising rounds.

FT : Ucits funds now speak Mandarin

Ucits funds now speak Mandarin

The European Commission’s asset management unit has for the first time published the text of a directive in Mandarin.
The Ucits IV directive, the latest iteration of the European retail fund regulation, appears in Mandarin on the commission website, as well as the usual English and French.

A spokesperson for the commission told FTfm: “This publication is linked to the interest of Chinese regulators and investors in knowing more about EU rules governing retail investment funds.”
This is an acknowledgment of the success of Ucits, which is recognised in markets around the world as a reliable structure. Although the vast majority of Ucits funds are registered in Dublin and Luxembourg, they are sold in more than 100 countries.
In Hong Kong, where more than 90 per cent of the funds market is from overseas, Ucits is the dominant structure. There is currently a process under way to establish mutual recognition between Hong Kong and China, so that funds regulated in one can be sold in the other.
The Chinese regulator already publishes its rules in English. However, the prospect for mutual recognition between European and Chinese markets is still distant, according to European experts.
Given that it has taken months for Ucits regulators to be comfortable allowing funds to invest in Chinese shares via Stock Connect, a link between the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock exchanges, it is likely to be a long time before fund structures in the Chinese market are deemed to offer equivalent investor protection to Ucits.

(NYT) Bank Hackers Steal Millions via Malware



Bank Hackers Steal Millions via Malware
2015-02-14 20:25:16.866 GMT


By DAVID E. SANGER and NICOLE PERLROTH
(New York Times) -- PALO ALTO, Calif. — In late 2013, an
A.T.M. in Kiev started dispensing cash at seemingly random times
of day. No one had put in a card or touched a button. Cameras
showed that the piles of money had been swept up by customers who
appeared lucky to be there at the right moment.
But when a Russian cybersecurity firm, Kaspersky Lab, was
called to Ukraine to investigate, it discovered that the errant
machine was the least of the bank’s problems.
The bank’s internal computers, used by employees who process
daily transfers and conduct bookkeeping, had been penetrated by
malware that allowed cybercriminals to record their every move.
The malicious software lurked for months, sending back video
feeds and images that told a criminal group — including Russians,
Chinese and Europeans — how the bank conducted its daily
routines, according to the investigators.
Then the group impersonated bank officers, not only turning
on various cash machines, but also transferring millions of
dollars from banks in Russia, Japan, Switzerland, the United
States and the Netherlands into dummy accounts set up in other
countries.
In a report to be published on Monday, and provided in
advance to The New York Times, Kaspersky Lab says that the scope
of this attack on more than 100 banks and other financial
institutions in 30 nations could make it one of the largest bank
thefts ever — and one conducted without the usual signs of
robbery.
The Moscow-based firm says that because of nondisclosure
agreements with the banks that were hit, it cannot name them.
Officials at the White House and the F.B.I. have been briefed on
the findings, but say that it will take time to confirm them and
assess the losses.
Kaspersky Lab says it has seen evidence of $300 million in
theft from clients, and believes the total could be triple that.
But that projection is impossible to verify because the thefts
were limited to $10 million a transaction, though some banks were
hit several times. In many cases the hauls were more modest,
presumably to avoid setting off alarms.
The majority of the targets were in Russia, but many were in
Japan, the United States and Europe.
No bank has come forward acknowledging the theft, a common
problem that President Obama alluded to on Friday when he
attended the first White House summit meeting on cybersecurity
and consumer protection at Stanford University. He urged passage
of a law that would require public disclosure of any breach that
compromised personal or financial information.
But the industry consortium that alerts banks to malicious
activity, the Financial Services Information Sharing and Analysis
Center, said in a statement that “our members are aware of this
activity. We have disseminated intelligence on this attack to the
members,” and that “some briefings were also provided by law
enforcement entities.”
The American Bankers Association declined to comment, and an
executive there, Douglas Johnson, said the group would let the
financial services center’s statement serve as the only comment.
Investigators at Interpol said their digital crimes
specialists in Singapore were coordinating an investigation with
law enforcement in affected countries. In the Netherlands, the
Dutch High Tech Crime Unit, a division of the Dutch National
Police that investigates some of the world’s most advanced
financial cybercrime, has also been briefed.
The silence around the investigation appears motivated in
part by the reluctance of banks to concede that their systems
were so easily penetrated, and in part by the fact that the
attacks appear to be continuing.
The managing director of the Kaspersky North America office
in Boston, Chris Doggett, argued that the “Carbanak cybergang,”
named for the malware it deployed, represents an increase in the
sophistication of cyberattacks on financial firms.
“This is likely the most sophisticated attack the world has
seen to date in terms of the tactics and methods that
cybercriminals have used to remain covert,” Mr. Doggett said.
As in the recent attack on Sony Pictures, which Mr. Obama
said again on Friday had been conducted by North Korea, the
intruders in the bank thefts were enormously patient, placing
surveillance software in the computers of system administrators
and watching their moves for months. The evidence suggests this
was not a nation state, but a specialized group of
cybercriminals.
But the question remains how a fraud of this scale could
have proceeded for nearly two years without banks, regulators or
law enforcement catching on. Investigators say the answers may
lie in the hackers’ technique.
In many ways, this hack began like any other. The
cybercriminals sent their victims infected emails — a news clip
or message that appeared to come from a colleague — as bait. When
the bank employees clicked on the email, they inadvertently
downloaded malicious code. That allowed the hackers to crawl
across a bank’s network until they found employees who
administered the cash transfer systems or remotely connected
A.T.M.s.
Then, Kaspersky’s investigators said, the thieves installed
a “RAT”— remote access tool — that could capture video and
screenshots of the employees’ computers.
“The goal was to mimic their activities,” said Sergey
Golovanov, who conducted the inquiry for Kaspersky Lab. “That
way, everything would look like a normal, everyday transaction,”
he said in a telephone interview from Russia.
The attackers took great pains to learn each bank’s
particular system, while they set up fake accounts at banks in
the United States and China that could serve as the destination
for transfers. Two people briefed on the investigation said that
the accounts were set up at J.P. Morgan Chase and the
Agricultural Bank of China. Neither bank returned requests for
comment.
Kaspersky Lab was founded in 1997 and has become one of
Russia’s most recognized high-tech exports, but its market share
in the United States has been hampered by its origins. Its
founder, Eugene Kaspersky, studied cryptography at a high school
that was co-sponsored by the K.G.B. and Russia’s Defense
Ministry, and he worked for the Russian military before starting
his firm.
When the time came to cash in on their activities — a period
investigators say ranged from two to four months — the criminals
pursued multiple routes. In some cases, they used online banking
systems to transfer money to their accounts. In other cases, they
ordered the banks’ A.T.M.s to dispense cash to terminals where
one of their associates would be waiting.
But the largest sums were stolen by hacking into a bank’s
accounting systems and briefly manipulating account balances.
Using the access gained by impersonating the banking officers,
the criminals first would inflate a balance — for example, an
account with $1,000 would be altered to show $10,000. Then $9,000
would be transferred outside the bank. The actual account holder
would not suspect a problem, and it would take the bank some time
to figure out what had happened.
“We found that many banks only check the accounts every 10
hours or so,” Mr. Golovanov of Kaspersky Lab said. “So in the
interim, you could change the numbers and transfer the money.”
The hackers’ success rate was impressive. One Kaspersky
client lost $7.3 million through A.T.M. withdrawals alone, the
firm says in its report. Another lost $10 million from the
exploitation of its accounting system. In some cases, transfers
were run through the system operated by the Society for Worldwide
Interbank Financial Telecommunication, or Swift, which banks use
to transfer funds across borders. It has long been a target for
hackers — and long been monitored by intelligence agencies.
Mr. Doggett likened most cyberthefts to “Bonnie and Clyde”
operations, in which attackers break in, take whatever they can
grab, and run. In this case, Mr. Doggett said, the heist was
“much more ‘Ocean’s Eleven.’ ”

Copyright 2015 The New York Times Company

-0- Feb/14/2015 20:25 GMT

>>> Lansdowne 13F : New position in IBN; increased stake in AXP,

Lansdowne Partners discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New position in IBN; increased stake in AXP, LB, V; cut stake in GOOG, BABA; closed position in LUK

Highlights from 2014 Q4 filing as compared to 2014 Q3 filing:
* New positions in: IBN (~1.3 mln shares)
* Increased positions in: AXP (to ~6.5 mln shares from ~1.9 mln shares), LB (to ~6.6 mln from ~5 mln), V (to ~1.2 mln from ~0.2 mln)
* Decreased positions in: GOOG (to ~8k shares from ~1.8 mln shares), BABA (to ~0.4 mln from ~1.7 mln)
* Closed positions in: LUK (from ~3.7 mln shares)

(Barron's) Avoid Big Oil: Exxon, Chevron, Conoco and Royal Dutch

--> The oil major are trading as if oil were $80 a barrel not $50. That suggests that there is little upside for the stocks if oil prices move back up

Avoid Big Oil: Exxon, Chevron, Conoco and Royal Dutch
Exxon, Chevron, Conoco and Royal Dutch: There’s little upside for their shares if oil rallies.

Be careful about Big Oil. Most of the major energy stocks, including ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and Royal Dutch Shell, have showcased their historically defensive characteristics during the sharp downturn in crude-oil prices since last fall. The shares generally are little changed since mid-October, even though crude (as measured by West Texas Intermediate) has fallen 35%, to $53 a barrel from $82.

The top international energy outfits are widely held by individual investors, who prize them for their secure dividend yields and financial strength. Longstanding holders probably should sit tight, but there seems little reason to commit new money to these stocks now. They may offer little upside if oil rallies, and the shares could be vulnerable if oil trades anywhere close to current levels—or even declines—during the rest of 2015. Another negative: Domestic natural-gas prices have been weak, falling 26% since October to $2.80 per million British thermal units.

ExxonMobil (ticker: XOM), traditionally the most defensive of the bunch, trades around $93, unchanged since Oct. 15. Since then, earnings estimates for Exxon and its brethren have come crashing down, with Exxon expected to earn $3.67 a share in 2015, half of what it netted last year. Exxon now trades at a lofty 25 times estimated 2015 earnings. Only 10 of the 29 analysts who follow the firm rate it a Buy, down from 14 of 32 six months ago.

Exxon and its peers are struggling to expand production, incurring heavy capital expenditures, dealing with increasingly difficult host governments, and facing a world in which energy demand is growing at about half the rate of global gross domestic product. Despite its huge capital spending of $38 billion last year, Exxon’s energy production fell about 2% and is projected to be unchanged this year at about four million barrels of oil equivalent per day.

“Energy is not a growth sector,” Morgan Stanley analyst Martjin Rats wrote recently. “Almost by default, the appeal of Big Oil to investors has to be the large amount of income they distribute.” He noted that dividend yields “reflect investor perception of the riskiness of that dividend and its potential to grow.”

THE INTEGRATED OILS have held up well for several reasons. There’s a widespread market view that the plunge in oil prices is temporary and that crude is heading back above $60 a barrel later this year and into the $70s by 2017. Another factor is the expectation that industry capital expenditures are peaking as several big megaprojects move toward completion in the next few years. Many of these projects are long-lived and thus will lessen the annual burden of replacing production. Analysts see greater free cash flow in the coming years.

Chevron (CVX), for instance, finally is set to bring onstream this year its massive Gorgon liquefied-natural-gas project in Australia, which now has 8,000 workers on the site. Gorgon has way exceeded initial cost expectations and is expected to cost $54 billion to complete. Money flows may also be helping the oil majors as institutional investors use them as a parking place after selling secondary producers.

And in a yield-parched world, the Big Oils offer some of the loftiest dividends among blue-chip stocks. Chevron yields 3.9%; ExxonMobil, 3%; and ConocoPhillips (COP), 4.3%. The two leading European energy companies, Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) and BP (BP), yield over 5%, reflecting the longstanding emphasis on dividends versus share repurchases in Europe.

Big Oil managements take their dividends very seriously. One reason that Royal Dutch is known as the widows-and-orphans stock of Europe is that its dividend hasn’t been cut since 1945. Exxon—and its predecessor, Standard Oil of New Jersey—has paid a dividend for more than a century, and it has increased its payout for 32 consecutive years. Chevron has boosted its dividend for 27 straight years.

However, none of the majors is expected to fully fund its dividend this year from internally generated cash flow. This probably will mean that the dividends will be funded to a greater or lesser extent with new debt, as well as asset sales. One casualty is share-buyback programs. Chevron is stopping its share-repurchase program this year, citing “the change in market conditions,” and Exxon is scaling back to $1 billion in the current quarter from $3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2014.

Chevron, for instance, is expected to have a cash-flow deficit of more than $16 billion this year, as projected cash flow from operations of $22 billion should fall short of capital expenditures of $31 billion and dividends of $8 billion, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Evan Calio. The result could be additional borrowings for a company whose net debt has risen to $15 billion at year-end 2014 from a net cash position of $9 billion at the end of 2012. The bull case on Chevron, as laid out in a recent cover story (“5 Oils to Buy,” Dec. 22, 2014) is that capital spending will fall and production will rise 20% by 2017 as Gorgon and other big projects come on-stream, giving Chevron one of the best growth profiles in the group.


EXXON MAY HAVE to fund much of this year’s expected $11.6 billion in dividend payments and $4 billion of buybacks with debt, as cash flow from operations may cover just its capital expenditures. Royal Dutch is expected to finance its entire $12 billion dividend this year with new debt or asset sales, Morgan Stanley estimates. Calio favors Occidental Petroleum (OXY), which was highlighted in our December cover story, citing its “higher yield security, better dividend-growth potential, and better buyback support,” according to a recent client note.

Analysts tend to focus more on dividend coverage based on cash flow, not reported earnings per share. Free cash flow usually is less than net income for the majors because capital expenditures exceed depreciation; Exxon’s capital expenditures of $38.5 billion last year were more than double depreciation of $17 billion. The distinction between free cash flow and reported earnings is often overlooked by individual investors.

Funding the dividend admittedly is no problem for the oil majors, given solid balance sheets and high credit ratings; Exxon is among the few triple-A-rated corporations, and Chevron is double-A rated. But debt-funded dividends raise the issue of sustainability if energy prices remain low for a multiyear period. And so many other industries offer dividends that are amply covered by free cash flow.

It would be one thing if the majors were bargains, but investors seem to think oil prices are at $80 a barrel, or at least heading back there. This suggests that income-oriented investors might do better elsewhere.

(Barron's) The Apple Watch Could Bring in $23 Billion Next Year

The Apple Watch Could Bring in $23 Billion Next Year
The Apple Watch, due out in April, looks like a hit. It could boost Apple’s revenue by 10% next year.

In a couple of months, investors will find out whether anyone will pay Apple $350 for a watch.

For better or worse, when the Apple Watch appears in April, it will be a defining moment for Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) chief, Tim Cook. It’s his stamp on the company, as much as his program of share buybacks and dividends, which was never undertaken by Apple’s late co-founder, Steve Jobs. Cook unveiled the watch to the world last September at a giant media event at De Anza College in Cupertino, Calif., the same place Jobs unveiled the Mac decades ago. I think the watch will be a success for a few reasons.

The premise for such a device is sound. I’ve used other smart watches and when they work well, they make a difference. The Apple Watch, if it works as promised, will let you do a few simple things in a fashion that’s easier than pulling a phone out of your pocket. You’ll be able to look down at your wrist to see who’s calling or texting. With a tap on the little display, you’ll be able to reject an incoming call or dismiss a text.

What some don’t appreciate is that for numerous instances when you are engaged in an activity, such as attending a meeting, driving in traffic, or stepping off a crowded train, the ability to see that a call or text is not urgent is a chance to avoid reaching for your phone. It’s about curtailing that distraction. It’s about focus, in other words.

I’ve used a Pebble smart watch, which brings some of those benefits. The Pebble has limitations, though, such as its inability to reply when you truly need to respond to a text. The Apple Watch can send either full replies right from the watch, by speaking, or snippets of text, such as, “I’ll get back to you.”

Another reason is that it’s beautiful. I saw it up close in September. I even strapped one on. Unlike some devices that either have no style at all, or that try to hide a computer inside a normal-looking case, Apple’s gadget elevates technology to its own aesthetic, much as its other products have done.

The selection of watch bands, which are interchangeable, snap into place with a subtle click, a development that is so smart that one wonders why it hasn’t been done already.

The level of consumer interest, moreover, is real. I’ve been stopped on the street many times by people who are mystified and excited by a smart watch I’ve been wearing, made by LG Electronics (066570.Korea), called the G Watch R. Its glowing face doesn’t do a whole lot more for me than tell the time, but we are all fascinated by glowing screens. When people learn that such a device can perform tasks like looking up information on Wikipedia, they are astounded.

THE APPLE WATCH CAN do those things and more. Its software is far more versatile than the Android software from Google (GOOGL) that runs the G Watch R, or software running similar devices from Samsung Electronics (005930.Korea). The smart watches that have appeared so far take baby steps compared with the Apple Watch. It will show the world more of what’s possible, and it will dazzle.

The watch has the ability to send your heartbeat to another Apple Watch wearer with a couple taps. A heart-rate sensor on the device reads your vitals, the data are sent to a friend’s watch, where it appears as an animation of a heart beating, accompanied by a pulsing vibration on their wrist. Yes, it’s a bit of a gimmick, but it’s a good one.

The common, and illogical, refrain is that Apple won’t get people to wear watches because the company once convinced them to abandon timepieces by selling them phones. But if Apple changed behavior once, it can do it again.

One issue is battery life. I expect you’ll need to charge the watch every night. In my experience with the LG G Watch R, charging is not as much of a drag as it sounds.

Other questions remain. Wall Street has tried to construct models for the number of devices Apple will sell, but has been stymied by the price of pricier versions, in stainless steel and gold, which the company has not yet announced. A report last week by Rod Hall, who follows Apple for JPMorgan Chase, featured one of the more aggressive predictions. Hall thinks Apple will sell 26 million watches this calendar year. That may rise to 55 million next year, for a total haul of nearly $23 billion in revenue in 2016, another 10% on top of Apple’s annual sales.

Hall thinks the stainless-steel version will cost $1,000, the gold one $4,000, based on the conjecture that the steel version has a bill of materials of $200, the gold version, $800. Paul Boutros, watch expert and Barron’s Penta columnist, observes that Hall’s math is consistent with watch industry economics: The retail price tends to be five to seven times production costs.

But Paul notes that the gold case, for example, could be hollowed out, as was often done in older watches, lowering gold content and cost.

In a world of Tag Heuer watches costing $4,000 or more, the success of a high-end offering from Apple is not a sure thing. Pricier watches tend to have more sophisticated mechanical movements, the watch engine, whereas Apple watches, as far as we know, share the same electronics under the hood. That may be why Hall estimates Apple will get 95% of its sales from the cheaper versions.

The biggest show of traditional mechanical and quartz watches will take place next month, in Basel, Switzerland. It will be interesting to see how high-end watchmakers like Swatch Group (UHR.VX)—maker of the Breguet, Omega, and Blancpain brands—plan to respond.

With great looks, beautiful engineering, and software that takes a big leap forward—all wrapped inside one of the most desired brands in the world—this device will find buyers where others have failed.

(Barron's) 3D Systems, Down 50%, Still Has Far to Fall

3D Systems, Down 50%, Still Has Far to Fall
3-D printing stocks have gotten crushed since our cover story appeared 11 months ago. The worst may be yet to come.


A year ago, 3-D printing companies were poised to rebuild the world. Today, their stocks have been flattened. Much of the losses have come in the wake of Barron’s cover story, which warned about the frenzy forming in the 3-D space (“Beware 3-D Printing!” March 10, 2014).

Referring to the 140%-plus run-ups for the stocks, we wrote, “In each case…investors are missing the point—and overpaying in the process.” Since our story, shares of 3D Systems (ticker: DDD) are down 51%, to a recent $33. Rivals Stratasys (SSYS), ExOne (XONE), and VoxelJet (VJET) have fallen 41%, 63%, and 70%, respectively.


3-D printing stocks have been crushed since our cover story appeared. There may be more bad news yet to come.
Despite the implosion, investors should stay away. 3D Systems, the industry’s largest player, could still hit the $15 target we cited in the story. Just 11 months ago, the stock was $67.

“All the momentum guys are gone…yet it hasn’t fallen enough for any sensible value investor to want to own it,” says Whitney Tilson, who was short five 3-D printing stocks last year before closing out his entire portfolio of short positions. “On any metric, the stock remains wildly overvalued.”

For 2014, analysts estimate that 3D Systems earnings fell 14%, to 73 cents a share, putting the stock’s price/earnings ratio at 45 times. (The company will report annual results on Feb. 26.) Wall Street thinks earnings per share could rebound to $1.02 in 2015, but take that with a grain of salt—a year ago those same analysts thought 2014 earnings would come in at $1.27.

Their expectations were far too optimistic about how quickly 3-D printers could gain widespread acceptance. “The whole industry was benefiting from so many people just discovering [3-D printing] for the first time,” says Brian Drab, an analyst at William Blair. “And every media outlet was publishing an article on 3-D printing. Then, when the hype started to wear off a little bit, companies needed to step up and spend.”

Stratasys shares tumbled 28% on Feb. 3 after the company said it would have to boost spending to maintain growth. Morgan Stanley slashed its price target from $124 to $53 on the news. Stratasys shares were trading at $67 late last week.

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) remains a wild card in discussions about 3-D printing. The printing pioneer has long stated an interest in the market. In October, the company offered specifics. It’s now planning to produce a high-end 3-D printer that could undercut much of the professional market for printers. HP says its technology is 10 times faster than current 3-D printers. HP declined to speak with Barron’s last year, but at the time some questioned whether the company would directly compete with existing printers.

“HP is probably the clearest threat to Stratasys and 3D Systems,” Drab says. “A year ago, I would not have said that.”

In the 3-D space, Drab has been one of Wall Street’s few consistent skeptics. He has had an Underperform rating on 3D Systems since May 2013. He now thinks the stock would be fairly valued between $17 and $24.