>>> Gemalto -5.6%

Information regarding a publication mentioning a hacking of SIM card encryption keys 
- A publication reported yesterday that in 2010 and 2011, a joint unit composed of operatives from the British GCHQ (Government Communications Headquarters) and the American NSA (National Security Agency) hacked SIM card encryption keys engraved in Gemalto (Euronext NL0000400653 - GTO) and possibly other SIM vendors' cards. The publication indicates thetarget was not Gemalto per se 
- it was an attempt to try and cast the widest net possible to reach as many mobile phones as possible, with the aim to monitor mobile communications without mobile network operators and users consent. We cannot at this early stage verify the findings of the publication and had no prior knowledge that these agencies were conducting this operation.
- At present we cannot prove a link between those past attempts and what was reported yesterday.

(BofA-ML) The Flow Show : +$6.4bil inflows in Equities ($5.8b in Europe)

>>> Asset Class Flows
* Equities: $6.4bn inflows (note $5.8bn inflows via ETFs)
* Bonds: $7.1bn inflows (7 straight weeks) (Table 1)
* Money-markets: $11.2bn outflows
* Precious metals: $0.3bn outflows (first outflows in 5 weeks; losing momentum)

>>> Equity Flows
* Europe: $5.8bn inflows (6 straight weeks) – the crowded trade
* EM: modest $0.8bn inflows (2 straight weeks) (Table 2)
* US: $1.2bn outflows (outflows in 6 out of past 7 weeks)
* Japan: $0.4bn outflows

>>> Fixed Income Flows
* 61 straight weeks of inflows to IG bond funds ($5.0bn)
* 4 straight weeks of inflows to HY bond funds ($2.1bn) (Chart 4)
* 3 straight weeks of inflows to EM debt funds (albeit small $99mn)
* 32 straight weeks of outflows from bank loan funds (albeit small $95mn)
* 18 straight weeks of inflows to MBS funds ($0.4bn)
* First outflows from muni funds in 23 weeks (albeit small $38mn)

(GS) Strat. : Better growth drives demand for European stocks by both US and Eur

Goldman
Strategy Espresso : Flows: Better growth drives demand for European stocks by both US and European investors

The latest US TIC data for December 2014 shows a small net outflow from European equities of USD 2.0bn; this comes after positive flows in both November and October. The 3-month average buying is still on a rising trend, at USD +5.3bn per month; we think the 3-month average is a better gauge of flows, given the volatility in the monthly data. We had seen sharp outflows by US investors in the late summer/early autumn; these outflows coincided with much weaker European economic data but, in the last three months of the year, flows have been more positive.
The US treasury data is collated on a custodial basis and may reflect flows held in Europe or going through Europe that don't pertain to domestic European equities. We therefore need to be cautious when interpreting the data. We also monitor the AMG/Lipper data, which comes from mutual funds and is timelier and higher frequency than the TIC data (but the universe is far smaller). This shows a sharp spike in flows by US-based investors into European equities, starting towards the end of January, which coincided both with the ECB QE announcement and a pick-up in the European economic data. Indeed, the last 4-weeks have seen the strongest inflows by US mutual funds into European equities since June last year. The chart below shows the sharp spike upwards since the beginning of the year - although the rise in inflows is small compared to the flows in 2013 and early 2014.
European investors are also swinging into equities. Aggregated Flows data from individual European equity funds (via Bloomberg) shows a sharp tick-up in flows in January, after being weak in the latter half of last year. Chris Turner also highlighted this turn in fund flows in European Flow Monitor: QE boosts demand for European assets; equity funds see inflows, February 2, 2015.
Have the fund flows been excessive versus the data? No, the flows have picked up with the improvement in the economic data and in our view remain relatively modest (see chart). For US funds, we highlighted in the previous month that the relative moves in the US and European PMIs were starting to favour Europe. This move in the PMIs has been strongly correlated with the flows into Europe. The level of economic growth still favours the US but the delta favours Europe; by 4Q15, we expect sequential qoq annualised growth of 2.2% for the Euro area versus 1.2% in 1Q15, whereas the US is expanding at 3.0% pace throughout the year on our forecasts. We discussed the relative improvement in economic and earnings data for Europe in Strategy Espresso: Europe to continue outperforming the US, February 12, 2015.
Where is positioning now, in our view? US investors were very under-positioned in European equities in 2012, so, when growth improved and risks diminished in 2013, there was a need for positioning to 'catch up' with the data improvement and Europe enjoyed a sharp uptick in flows into equities by US investors. We track the buying of US investors cumulatively over time and compare this to the trend of buying seen since the late 1970s. The rise in buying from 2013 through to early 2014 lifted cumulative investment into European equities above its long-run trend (see chart below). The net outflows since the summer of last year took them back to around the trend investment line, now they are hovering just below. We see this as just a rough approximation of positioning and, while we no longer see US investors as under-positioned in European equities as they were in 2012 or 2013, we similarly don't regard positioning as aggressive in European equites, despite the recent inflows.
What drives the flows from here? For US investors, we've found that they have historically been most sensitive to changes in the pace of growth and to risks, and not so sensitive to valuation. So, the fact that the European market has risen as earnings estimates have moved downwards, pushing up the forward P/E to above 15x - a 10-year high - , is not in our view an obstacle to flows from US-based investors. The correlation between US monthly flows into European equities since 2002 and the change in the ERP has been -43% (so higher ERP means lower flows), with the change in the Euro area manufacturing PMI it's been +39% (higher growth sentiment, higher flows) but, with 12m forward consensus P/E at the outset, the correlation is zero. We continue to argue therefore that economic improvement and continued contraction of the ERP are synonymous with continued flows from US investors. We see a spike in the risk premium as the main risk to flows, potentially triggered by, say, an exit of Greece from the EMU or by further escalation of the conflict in Ukraine.
Are we seeing a switch from bonds into equities? Historically, US flows into both European equities and European bonds have been correlated - so US investors are either buying or selling European assets and some goes into equities and some to bonds. But more recently we find that US investor flows into European bonds were negative through the end of last year whereas there is a clear jump upwards in equities, in our view, reflecting both the stretched valuation of European bonds and the greater gearing to a growth improvement available in equities.

>>> What to look at today - 20th of February 2015

Dow-0,24% S&P-0,11% Nasdaq+0,37% Russell Unch. VIX
US MArket closed near the flat line in a low volume market, Equity indices started the day under pressure that was largely due to early weakness in the energy sector. The growth-sensitive group narrowed its loss to 0.8% by the close, but was down as much as 2.5% at the start. Meanwhile, crude oil tested the $50.00/bbl level this morning, but narrowed its loss to 0.6% at $51.83/bbl by the pit close. Oil rallied through the early afternoon release of the latest EIA storage report, which showed the largest inventory build for this time of the year in the past 80 years...Volume were still below average @ 680mil shares...US After Hours SZMK +9.6%, TC +7.8%, INTU +3.2%, NDLS -24.8%, FUEL -22.2%, MRVL -3.1% following earnings/guidance...NEM +1.2% (reported gold reserves of 82.2 mln ounces and copper reserves of 7.9 bln pounds for 2014; co also reported earnings...After two failed attempts to reach a compromise over the past week, the Germany-Greece standoff over the extent of continued austerity attached to ongoing lending is in its final throes heading into more conclusive Eurogroup talks. After the German Finance Ministry spoiled hopes for a tentative agreement overnight by dismissing the Greek proposals for not having enough "substantive solutions", subsequent reports have been somewhat more encouraging. Greek PM Tsipras and German Chancellor Merkel reportedly held a 'constructive' phone call, and a meeting of deputies was said to have brought the two sides closer to the framework for compromise. ECB's Weidmann appears to have maintained his unyielding stance in the same vein as his principled Bundesbank predecessors however, noting that Athens request to allow its bonds' use of collateral would be granted only if Greece abides by prior conditions....preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI for February is a disappointment. Resident economist acknowledged some progress in operating conditions, but also noted that employment growth weakened for the second successive month in February despite reports of an improving economy. BOJ Gov Kuroda responded to press speculation of potential delay in achieving 2% inflation target by noting the central bank has a variety of policy tools to meet its objectives. Kuroda added that a sustainable fiscal structure for the economy is still desirable, adding the central bank is also paying great attention to stability in JGB markets.
Nikkei +0.37% Hang Seng Closed Shanghai Closed

RUB $61.7952 (-0.15) WTI $51.61 (+0.16%) EURCHF 1.0810

EUR$ 1.1360 S&P -0.02% EuroStoxx -0.30% Dax -0.18% SMI -0.15%

Macro :
- Greek Debt Belies Euro Exit as Value Is 23% Above 5-Year Average
- ECB Said to Push Greek Banks to Shed State Debt If Talks Fail
- Germany Leaves Door Open to Deal on Greek Plan as Talks Loom (1)

Keep an eye on :
- ARL GY : Aareal Bank Set to Buy Westimmo, FAZ Reports
- ADP FP : Aeroports De Paris 2014 Ebitda Rises 3.4%, Sees Traffic Growth
- AREVA FP : Areva Will Have to Be Refinanced by French State: Figaro
- CS FP : Axa to Take Over London City Pinnacle for 300m Pnds, FT Says
- BAYN GY : KKR-Backed Panasonic Healthcare Said to Buy Bayer Diabetes Unit
- BEFB BB : Befimmo’s Forecast for 2015 Adj. EPS of EU3.62 Misses Ests.
- BION SW : BB Biotech Net CHF1.47b vs CHF931.8m Y/y; NAV Rises
- BP/ LN : BP Rejected in Attempt to Cut Fines in Gulf of Mexico Spill: AP
- CU FP : Club Mediterranee Says Winter 2015 Bookings Flat Versus 2014
- BN FP : Danone Sees 2015 LFL Sales Up 4%-5%, 4Q LFL Sales Beat
- ENEL IM : Enel Suspends Romania Asset Sale as Co. Met Debt Goal: Reuters
- ERA FP : Eramet Sees Economic Trends, Lower Oil Price Benefitting 2015
- FGR FP : Eiffage Says Eiffarie-APRR Refinances Credit Facilities
- FDR FP : Fonciere des Regions to Boost Unit Stake; Recurring Net Rises
- FPE3 GY : Fuchs Petrolub 2014 Ebit Beats; Sees 2015 Earnings Growth
- GFC FP : Gecina Says Investments May Lead to Higher 2015 Targets
- ICAD FP : CDC Is Considering Options Over Icade, Les Echos Reports
- EMG LN : Man Group Said in Talks to Buy Asset Manager NewSmith: FT
- NOVN VX : Novartis Sues Pfizer Over Patents for Meningitis Vaccine
- PFV GY : Pfeiffer Vacuum 2014 Ebit Down 11%; Div. Matches BDVD Forecast
- REX LN : Rexam May Be Cut to Junk by Moody’s
- SAN FP : Sanofi Names Olivier Brandicourt CEO
- SESG FP : SES 2014 Rev., Ebitda Match Ests; 2015 Growth Seen Slower
- TEC FP : Technip Wins EPC Contract for Ammonia Unit; Worth EU250m-EU500m
- TIT IM : Telecom Italia Plans to Incorporate Telecom Italia Media
- TIT IM : Telecom Italia FY Sales Meet Ests. as Net Debt Beats
- TTI GY : Tom Tailor to Focus on Expansion, CFO Tells Boersen-Zeitung
- DG FP : Vinci Park Close to Buying Empark for About EU900M: Cinco Dias

>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 20th of February 2015

>>> Up
*BOVIS HOMES RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*DIALOG SEMICONDUCTOR RAISED TO OUTPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE
*EDP RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*ENI RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE
*MLP RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT BANKHAUS LAMPE
*MODERN TIMES GROUP RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*NESTLE RAISED TO NEUTRAL AT MAINFIRST, PT TO CHF70
*RHEINMETALL RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT EQUINET
*SCHNEIDER RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT SOCGEN
*SERCO RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE
*WEIR RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN

>>> Down
*ALLIANZ CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT BANKHAUS LAMPE
*CAIXABANK CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT CITI
*CREST NICHOLSON CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*DATALOGIC CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT BERENBERG
*EDENRED CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE
*ENEL RUSSIA CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*EVS BROADCAST CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT BERENBERG
*GLOBALTRANS CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT HSBC
*HAMMERSON CUT TO NEUTRAL AT HSBC
*HAYS CUT TO ADD VS BUY AT NUMIS
*IMMOFINANZ CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT HSBC
*KINGFISHER CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*MAGNIT CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE
*MILLICOM CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*MOSENERGO CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*MUNICH RE CUT TO SELL VS HOLD AT BANKHAUS LAMPE
*OGK-2 CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*PERSIMMON CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*SPARKASSEN IMMOBILIEN CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT HSBC
*ZURICH INSURANCE CUT TO SELL VS HOLD AT BANKHAUS LAMPE

>>> PT Change
*EVS PT RAISED TO EU35 FROM EU28 AT ING; HOLD MAINTAINED
*SOLVAY PT RAISED TO EU125 FROM EU120 AT ING; HOLD MAINTAINED

>>> Initiation
*TUI RESTARTED HOLD AT JEFFERIES

>>> Call
>> Stock
*CAIXABANK REMOVED FROM CITI FOCUS LIST EUROPE, ING ADDED
*RIO TINTO, UMICORE ADDED TO BOFAML LEAST PREFERRED LIST
*VEDANTA, HYDRO, SYNGENTA ADDED TO BOFAML MOST PREFERRED LIST

>>> Asian Update

Asian Mid-session Update: Markets await the verdict on Greece debt deal

***Economic Data***
- (JP) JAPAN FEB PRELIM MARKIT/JMMA MANUFACTURING PMI: 51.5 V 52.5E (lowest since Jul 2014)
- (US) NORTH AMERICA JAN SEMI BOOK/BILL RATIO: 1.03 V 0.99 PRIOR (5-month high)

***Index Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +0.3%, S&P/ASX -0.4%, Kospi closed, Shanghai Composite closed, Hang Seng closed, Mar S&P500 -0.1% at 2,094

***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Apr gold -0.2% at $1,206, Apr crude oil +0.3% at $52.29/brl
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 1.5 tonnes to 769.0 tonnes; first rise since Feb 5th
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥400B in 1-3yr JGB, ¥400B in 305yr JGB, ¥240B in 10-25yr JGB and ¥140B in JGB with maturity over 25-yr
- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$600M in 5.25% bonds due 2019; Avg yield: 1.9235%; Bid-to-cover: 4.55x
- Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets for week ending Feb 18th: $4.50T v $4.50T prior; Reserve Bank Credit: $4.46T v $4.46T prior; M1 y/y change: 9.3% v 9.3% w/w; M2 y/y change: 5.9% v 5.9% w/w

***Market Focal Points/FX***
- After two failed attempts to reach a compromise over the past week, the Germany-Greece standoff over the extent of continued austerity attached to ongoing lending is in its final throes heading into more conclusive Eurogroup talks. After the German Finance Ministry spoiled hopes for a tentative agreement overnight by dismissing the Greek proposals for not having enough "substantive solutions", subsequent reports have been somewhat more encouraging. Greek PM Tsipras and German Chancellor Merkel reportedly held a 'constructive' phone call, and a meeting of deputies was said to have brought the two sides closer to the framework for compromise. ECB's Weidmann appears to have maintained his unyielding stance in the same vein as his principled Bundesbank predecessors however, noting that Athens request to allow its bonds' use of collateral would be granted only if Greece abides by prior conditions.

- After some improvement in trade data out of Japan yesterday and an upgrade of output and exports by the Bank of Japan earlier this week, today's preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI for February is a disappointment. Resident economist acknowledged some progress in operating conditions, but also noted that employment growth weakened for the second successive month in February despite reports of an improving economy. The report follows earlier findings from the Labor Ministry that wages of full-time workers rose for the first time in 2 years and were also the highest in 18 years at 1.3%. BOJ Gov Kuroda responded to press speculation of potential delay in achieving 2% inflation target by noting the central bank has a variety of policy tools to meet its objectives. Kuroda added that a sustainable fiscal structure for the economy is still desirable, adding the central bank is also paying great attention to stability in JGB markets.

- Australia's Santos headlined today's earnings calendar down under, faring notably worse than Woodside Petroleum reporting results earlier this week. Santos posted a net loss A$935M vs profit A$516M y/y, maintained dividend payment, and reaffirmed FY15 production outlook, and also signalled it would continue cost reductions to deal with lower oil prices.

***Equities***
US markets:
- ANN: Ann Taylor parent said to be working on sale - financial press; +9.0% afterhours
- INTU: Reports Q2 -$0.06 v -$0.13e, R$808M v $784Me; +3.4% afterhours
- JWN: Reports Q4 $1.32 v $1.35e, R$4.04B v $4.02Be; +1.5% afterhours
- BRCD: Reports Q1 $0.27 v $0.24e, R$576M v $570Me; +1.4% afterhours
- NEM: Reports Q4 $0.17 (adj) v $0.13e, R$2.02B v $1.83Be; +1.4% afterhours
- ENB: Reports Q4 $0.49 v $0.50e (1 est), R$8.8B v $8.3B y/y; Raises dividend; flat afterhours
- AAPL: Follow up: Said to push team to start production on electric vehicle as early as 2020 - financial press; flat afterhours
- MRVL: Reports Q4 $0.25 v $0.24e, R$857M v $893Me; -3.3% afterhours
- EQIX: Reports Q4 $0.56 v $0.98e, R$638.1M v $630Me; -5.0% afterhours
- FUEL: Reports Q4 -$0.18 v -$0.25e, R$139.5M v $145Me; -22.8% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: STW Communications Group SGN.AU -23.4% (FY14 results); Skymark Airlines 9204.JP +18.5% (may receive support); Hokuetsu Kishu Paper 3865.JP +1.4% (acquisition)
- Financials: Cover-More Group CVO.AU -6.5% (H1 results)
- Energy: Santos Ltd STO.AU -3.0% (FY14 results)
- Industrials: Transpacific Industries Group TPI.AU -12.9% (H1 results); James Hardie Industries JHX.AU +1.8% (Q3 results)
- Technology: Japan Display 6740.JP +7.8% (speculation to build manuf plant for Apple)
- Telecom: Vocus Communications VOC.AU -5.4% (H1 results)

>>> US After Hours SZMK +9.6%, TC +7.8%, INTU +3.2%, NDLS -24


After Hours Summary: SZMK +9.6%, TC +7.8%, INTU +3.2%, NDLS -24.8%, FUEL -22.2%, MRVL -3.1% following earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: SZMK +9.6%, TC +7.8%, PGN +7.6%, AHS +6.9%, ANET +6.8%, SAAS +6.5%, FRGI +6.2%, XNPT +4.5%, CRC +4.5%, BSQR +3.5%, INTU +3.2%, MHK +2.8%, COHU +2.3%, ROVI +1.5%, FTR +1.5%, BLDR +1.4%, NEM +1.2%, MIFI +1.2%, AUQ +0.9%, JWN +0.7%, BRKR +0.4%, KEYS +0.3%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: ANN +9.0% (Bloomberg reporting co is working with JP Morgan on a sale), GTT +4.1% (acquired MegaPath's Managed Services Business for $144.8 million in cash and $7.5 million in GTT common stock), OLED +1.3% (co and OLEDWorks LLC announce the signing of a new OLED Technology License Agreement), NEM +1.2% (reported gold reserves of 82.2 mln ounces and copper reserves of 7.9 bln pounds for 2014; co also reported earnings), 

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: NDLS -24.8%, FUEL -22.2%, MRC -7.8%, BEAT -5.9%, TRUE -5.7%, EQIX -4.1%, MRVL -3.1%, NGD -0.8%, TEP -0.8%, BRCD -0.2%, ED -0.2%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: AVB -0.4% (filed mixed securities shelf offering) 

(BN) European Banks Under Tight Controls Encourage Mergers: Real M&A



European Banks Under Tight Controls Encourage Mergers: Real M&A
2015-02-19 23:12:57.587 GMT


(For a Real M&A column news alert: {SALT REALMNA <GO>}.)

By Aaron Kirchfeld and Brooke Sutherland
(Bloomberg) -- New rules intended to make European banks
stronger may end up encouraging them to get bigger, too.
With the European Central Bank now the currency zone’s top
financial supervisor, the emphasis is on fewer and better-run
lenders. Euro-zone banks have more assets -- about $17 trillion
-- than almost every currency group tracked by the Bloomberg
World Banks Index, yet they are among the least profitable. The
confrontation between Greece and other euro-area nations is just
the latest crisis to beset the region as lenders contend with
declining profits and stricter regulatory requirements.
There’s only so much cost-cutting that banks can do, making
consolidation necessary to increase returns, said Cyril
Meilland, an analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux. And with the ECB’s
stress tests on the top institutions now completed, the
regulatory uncertainty that kept acquirers on the sidelines last
year has begun to diffuse. Institutions including Italian lender
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA and even Germany’s
Commerzbank AG, one of the cheapest major financial firms, could
now become merger candidates.
“Financial institutions in Europe are looking at what they
can do to improve profitability in a slow-growth and low-rate
environment,” said Isabelle Seillier, the head of financial
institutions in the region at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Regulatory and economic upheaval limited the number of
euro-area bank takeovers last year to about 30 -- the fewest
since at least 2003 -- even as global deal activity surged,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This year, things may
start to pick up.

ECB Oversight

The ECB now has direct responsibility for monitoring the
region’s biggest banks. The idea is to streamline and
standardize regulations across countries and mitigate future
financial crises by enforcing higher capital requirements. It
may have the additional side effect of driving more takeovers.
Euro-area banks tracked by the Bloomberg World Banks Index
had net income of about $30 billion during their most recently
reported 12-month period. That’s roughly as much as Australian
and Canadian banks in the index each earned, even though they
have just a fraction of the assets of their European peers. The
average return on assets for euro-zone banks is less than 0.1
percent -- about 10 times lower than that of U.S. peers.
“Consolidation is probably required in order for margins
to increase,” Meilland of Kepler Cheuvreux said. On the one
hand, “you have regulators which are probably not very happy to
see banks get bigger. At the same time they are pushing for it,
even though it is a non-intended consequence, by raising the
bars.”

Stress Tests

In its stress test of the region’s 130 biggest banks, the
ECB gave failing grades to 25 of them. Those that had
deficiencies were given as many as nine months to fill capital
gaps. Italian banks had the largest shortfall, making the
country a logical starting place for acquisitions.
In October, Banca Monte dei Paschi hired advisers to
explore all strategic options as it sought to replenish a 2.1
billion-euro capital deficiency. BNP Paribas SA and Unione di
Banche Italiane have both been cited as potential buyers for the
world’s oldest lender, though the chief executive officers of
the two banks have sought to quash deal speculation.

‘Popolari’ Plays

Italy’s cabinet last month also approved a decree to
convert the country’s cooperative lenders, known as popolari,
into joint-stock companies, making them more appealing to
investors and removing obstacles for consolidation.
Banca Popolare di Milano Scarl is among the likeliest
targets because it’s a small, cheap and overcapitalized bank
covering the richest part of the country, according to Fabrizio
Bernardi, an analyst at Fidentiis Equities.
Three-way combinations may be necessary to consolidate the
crowded Italian banking system. The best combination would
involve a deal between Banco Popolare SC and Credito Emiliano
SpA, followed by a merger with Banca Popolare dell’Emilia
Romagna SC, though that would take time, according to a report
this month from George Karamanos, an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette
& Woods Inc.
Banco Popolare SC Chief Executive Officer Pier Francesco
Saviotti told reporters in Milan Tuesday that the bank may play
a role in consolidation and that a combination with banks
including Popolare di Milano would be suitable.

German Lenders

Some lenders in Germany would have failed the ECB’s stress
tests if the fully phased-in regulatory standards had been
applied. That may lead to deals in that country as well,
Commerzbank CEO Martin Blessing said in November.
Commerzbank itself is one of the rare potential German
targets for acquirers seeking a shortcut to larger-scale
exposure in that country, Deutsche Bank AG analyst Benjamin Goy
wrote in an April report. The country’s second-largest bank,
valued at about $15 billion, is partially owned by the
government after a 2009 bailout.
ING Groep NV would be an interesting partner for
Commerzbank because of its strong presence in online banking and
higher market share in mortgages, according to the report from
Goy. The Dutch bank completed a bailout repayment last year. A
combination with UniCredit SpA would offer cost synergies, the
analyst said.
He put a deal a few years off in part because many would-be
acquirers are still in the process of deleveraging and lack the
firepower to tackle such a sizable acquisition. A more
streamlined regulatory landscape and Commerzbank’s cheap
valuation may increase the odds. The company trades at 0.5 times
its book value, a lower multiple than almost every other
similar-sized institution, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg.

Too Big?

The other big question is whether regulators would look
favorably upon large, cross-border megamergers like that.
“The ECB just took over as main regulator,” said
Christian Sole, an equity analyst in Brussels at Candriam
Investors Group, which oversees about 80 billion euros in assets
and is part of New York Life Investment Management. “My
impression is that they would prefer to be regulator for several
years and to be sure that they know what is going on before
allowing consolidation.”
Even so, as new capital requirements and regulations erode
profitability, banks are increasingly likely to seek deals. Some
assets are already on the block. General Electric Co. is
exploring options for its Polish banking unit and has asked
potential bidders to submit their interest, people with
knowledge of the situation said this month. The Netherlands,
which spent more than 95 billion euros in capital and guarantees
to bail out the finance industry, is also in the process of
disposing of financial assets including bank ABN Amro Group NV.

Weighing Options

Deutsche Bank is weighing options such as the sale of
assets, including its Postbank consumer-lending unit, as
Germany’s biggest bank reviews its strategy, a person with
knowledge of the matter said in January.
In Portugal, the country’s central bank has invited 15
suitors to the second phase of the sale of Novo Banco SA, the
lender that emerged from the breakup of Banco Espirito Santo SA.
Banco Santander SA and Banco BPI SA of Portugal have expressed
interest in bidding. CaixaBank SA this week offered to buy the
shares it doesn’t already own in BPI, potentially setting it up
to support the bank’s offer for Novo Banco.
“All of this kind of new regulation and increasing capital
requirements forces banks to either raise capital or to perform
more M&A in order to get economies of scale,” Al Alevizakos, a
London-based analyst at KBW, said in a phone interview. “The
M&A angle is going to be played after we have more clarity on
the capital positions for some banks.”

For Related News and Information:
Italy Banks Emerge as Biggest Losers in ECB Industry Health Test
ECB Skips Fireworks for Day One as Supervisors Ponder Bad Loans
European Bank Mergers Are Back on Agenda, BofA’s Meissner Says
ECB Reshapes Euro-Area Bank Landscape as Capital Race Quickens
European Central Bank dashboard: ECB <GO>
Top deal news: DTOP <GO>
Real M&A columns: NI REALMNA <GO>

--With assistance from Elisa Martinuzzi and Sonia Sirletti in
Milan, Nicholas Comfort in Frankfurt and Maud van Gaal.

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Elizabeth Wollman

(BFW) *SANOFI: SANOFI NAMES OLIVIER BRANDICOURT AS CEO


BN 02/19 21:46 *SANOFI NAMES OLIVIER BRANDICOURT CEO
BN 02/19 21:46 *SANOFI: BRANDICOURT TO TAKE UP NEW DUTIES ON APRIL 2, '15
BN 02/19 21:46 *SANOFI: BRANDICOURT HAD BEEN CHAIRMAN OF BAYER HEALTHCARE AG
BFW 02/19 21:46 *SANOFI: SANOFI NAMES OLIVIER BRANDICOURT AS CEO
BN 02/19 21:45 *SANOFI: TENURE AS CEO WILL BEGIN ON APRIL 2, '15
BN 02/19 21:45 *SANOFI: SANOFI NAMES OLIVIER BRANDICOURT AS CEO
BN 02/19 21:45 *SANOFI NAMES OLIVIER BRANDICOURT AS CEO

Sanofi: Sanofi Appoints Olivier Brandicourt as Chief Executive Officer
2015-02-19 21:45:48.350 GMT

Sanofi Appoints Olivier Brandicourt as Chief Executive Officer

class="hugin">                                                          
- Tenure as CEO will commence on April 2, 2015 -

Paris - February 19, 2015 - The Board of Directors unanimously appointed
Olivier Brandicourt as Chief Executive Officer of Sanofi.

Olivier Brandicourt has 28 years of global experience in the pharmaceutical
industry, most recently as Chairman of the Board of Management of Bayer
HealthCare AG and member of the Executive Council of Bayer AG. Previously,
Brandicourt held numerous positions of increasing responsibility within major
global pharmaceutical groups, such as Parke-Davis/Warner-Lambert and Pfizer.
Notably, Brandicourt served as a member of Pfizer's global Executive
Leadership Team from 2010 - 2013. 

A physician by training, Olivier Brandicourt's career includes several senior
positions in Europe,
Canada and the United States. As the head of various key healthcare divisions,
he has a broad range of expertise and knowledge of the pharmaceutical industry
and has led the launch of numerous new medicines and the completion of
strategic acquisitions and integrations.

Serge Weinberg, Chairman of the Board of Directors, Sanofi said, "Sanofi
undertook a rigorous selection process to identify the right person to lead
Sanofi forward at an important time for our company. I am very pleased that
Olivier Brandicourt will be the next chief executive officer of Sanofi.
Olivier Brandicourt's strong experience combined with his international
profile, deep knowledge of U.S. and emerging healthcare markets, and his
capability to unite teams will provide new dynamism to Sanofi's strategy of
diversification and innovation."

In agreement with his former employer, Brandicourt will take up his new duties
on April 2, 2015.

Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements as defined in the
Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, as amended. Forward-looking
statements are statements that are not historical facts. These statements
include projections and estimates and their underlying assumptions, statements
regarding plans, objectives, intentions and expectations with respect to
future financial results, events, operations, services, product development
and potential, and statements regarding future performance. Forward-looking
statements are generally identified by the words "expects", "anticipates",
"believes", "intends", "estimates", "plans" and similar expressions. Although
Sanofi's and MannKind's management teams believe that the expectations
reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, investors are
cautioned that forward-looking information and statements are subject to
various risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and
generally beyond the control of Sanofi and MannKind, that could cause actual
results and developments to differ materially from those expressed in, or
implied or projected by, the forward-looking information and statements. These
risks and uncertainties include among other things, the uncertainties inherent
in research and development, future clinical data and analysis, including post
marketing, decisions by regulatory authorities, such as the FDA or the EMA,
regarding whether and when to approve any drug, device or biological
application that may be filed for any such product candidates as well as their
decisions regarding labelling and other matters that could affect the
availability or commercial potential of such product candidates, the absence
of guarantee that the product candidates if approved will be commercially
successful, the future approval and commercial success of therapeutic
alternatives, the Group's ability to benefit from external growth
opportunities, trends in exchange rates and prevailing interest rates, the
impact of cost containment policies and subsequent changes thereto, the
average number of shares outstanding as well as those discussed or identified
in the public filings with the SEC and the AMF made by Sanofi and MannKind,
including those listed under "Risk Factors" and "Cautionary Statement
Regarding Forward-Looking Statements" in Sanofi's annual report on Form 20-F
for the year ended December 31, 2013, and those risks and uncertainties listed
in MannKind's annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2013,
and listed or described in subsequent reports filed by MannKind with the
Securities and Exchange Commission. Other than as required by applicable law,
neither Sanofi nor MannKind undertake any obligation to update or revise any
forward-looking information or statements.

Contacts:  

   

Media Relations Investor Relations
Gregory Miley Sébastien Martel
Tel.: + (33) 1 53 77 46 46 Tel.: + (33) 1 53 77 45 45
MR@sanofi.com ir@sanofi.com

                             
Image Sept
Florence Coupry
fcoupry@image7.com
+33 6 63 44 27 59

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