RTRS - SYMRISE SY1G.DE CEO SAYS EBITDA MARGIN OF ABOVE 22 PCT IS NOT SUSTAINABLE IN LONG TERM, ARE AT UPPER END OF WHAT IS POSSIBLE
Stock slighlty lower
Apple shows nice new Macbook & a very profitable Watch
Today Apple hosted an event in San Francisco which provided more details on Apple
Watch (shipping on April 24th), a major update to the Macbook (and other
notebooks) and a few other things like HBO streaming launch exclusivity on Apple
TV and ResearchKit. We believe use cases for the Apple Watch are getting more
compelling with unique apps now coming soon from many including those from
Instagram and Twitter. We also see strong potential for the watch to augment Apple
Pay and to be used by frequent travellers (i.e. Watch as a keycard/ boarding pass).
One key disclosure was the relatively high ASPs for the Watch, which could even
help expand gross margins long-term (considering potential margins for the Apple
Watch and Apple Watch Edition SKUs and the band accessories).
We estimate 2 million Watch units sold in the June quarter with a blended ASP of
$425. For all of FY15, we estimate Apple Watch units of 7.5 million. We see a stronger
ramp next year to 31.6 million units (+321% y/y growth) based on a blended ASP of
$429, which could prove conservative after the pricing details we heard today. In fact
we could argue that the ASP of the Watch may be closer to $600, which could add
about 30 cents to CY15 EPS.
With “Spring Forward” now behind the company, we believe the next potential
catalysts for Apple in April include iPhone sales upside, a renewed and larger capital
return program and a strong launch for the watch. We still wouldn’t be surprised to see
shares move steadily closer to our target of $150 by year-end and reiterate our OW
rating - supported by strong free cash flow and our view that Apple is one of the few
companies in our space that can successfully navigate a strong dollar.
* Shift back to European equities
The Federal Reserve is likely to raise short-term interest rates later this year; US
stocks are within 5% of our target level, and earnings growth may be scarcer if oil
prices remain low. We are therefore shifting weight from the US to Europe, where
the European Central Bank’s monetary stimulus, combined with credit growth,
should help boost equity market returns. Other global central banks are pursuing
expansive monetary policies.
* Also favor Japan, India, China
Our case for Japan combines improvement in both fundamentals and market
dynamics. For India, the likely drivers are a combination of lower inflation, falling oil
prices, a reform-oriented government and an independent central bank. China
should benefit from a mix of both monetary and fiscal stimulus.
* It’s all about inflation, inflation, inflation
The guest column this month, authored by US Economist Michael Hanson,
examines Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s recent congressional testimony. The Fed
appears focused on inflation as the primary determinant of interest rate policy.
* Global stocks that may benefit from strong dollar
In our ideas section, Strategist Matthew Trapp screens the BofAML Global
Research universe for listed ADRs from favored markets of Japan and Europe that
derive a high percentage of sales from North America. Many of these companies
are likely to benefit as their home currencies weaken vs the dollar.
* Still in ‘Recession’ - but very, very close to 'Recovery'
Our European Composite Macro Indicator improved for the first time in a year. If
signals improve again next month, the confirmation will move the Style Cycle into
the ‘Recovery’ phase from ‘Recession’ (pg12). When this happens, Value, Risk and
Small Size stocks should consistently outperform.
* Four indicators improve; one flat and one falling
The four inputs that are most sensitive to European data are rising: Pan-European
GDP forecasts, changes in Pan-European bond yields, YoY changes in the OECD
European Leading Indicator and the German IFO Indicator. However, macro data
sensitive to global cycle have yet to show recovery. The Global EPS Revision Ratio
is flat on last month and Producer Price Inflation (representative of commodity
weakness) has yet to show recovery.
* Sentiment stretched, FX driving earnings & performance
“European Recovery” seems to be the most consensual trade, as affirmed by flows
into European stocks, stretched sentiment readings from our Fund Manager Survey
and even by listening to the pundits. However, most of the excitement is following a
weakening Euro, which benefits exporters both cyclical and defensive (cover chart).
The play of FX is so strong that over the past 12 months, US stocks are up 40% for
Euro investors, while European stocks are down 10% for US$ investors.
--> When we enter the ‘Recovery’ phase, macro fundamentals should drive market
performance beyond any FX effects. It will favour European Financials (domestic
exposed Value) over Staples (high Quality exporter). In contrast, the key to beating
the benchmark in past months has simply been to avoid Value styles in Financials
and commodity sectors.
Duerr to make several small and one large acquisition in four-five years
Duerr, the listed German machinery maker, aims to make several small and one large acquisition in the coming four to five years, Boersen-Zeitung reported.
The German-language daily cited Chief Executive Ralf Dieter as saying that Duerr is expected to continue making takeovers, and that the coming five years will probably see one acquisition that is worth more than EUR 300m.
By 2020, the targeted turnover for Duer is EUR 5bn, compared to the EUR 3.4bn-EUR 3.5bn predicted for the present year, with the increase resulting from both organic growth and acquisitions, according to the article.
Dieter said Duerr will acquire in the machinery and plant production field, and will seek to reduce its dependence on automobile sector customers.
Recently acquired German company Homag will put pressure on Duerr's profitability, which in 2015 will show a margin of 7%-7.5%, according to Dieter's cited remarks.
Duerr plans to boost its profitable services business, which already accounts for more than 25% of revenues, the report noted.
Source Boersen-Zeitung
EI Towers fixes share component for Raiway public offer at EUR 45.83 per share
EI Towers, the listed Italian TV transmission tower network owned by Mediaset, has priced the EUR 374m share component for its public offer for listed rival Raiway at EUR 45.83 per share.
An unsourced report in Il Corriere della Sera said the EI Towers board of directors fixed the pricing yesterday, 9 March. EI Towers shares are presently trading at EUR 49.92, the article added.
The item noted the public offer is valued at EUR 1.22bn, of which EUR 374m will be made up of EI Towers shares and the remainder will be cash.
The report added EI Towers also furnished extra details of its public offer for Raiway to AGCM, Italy's competitions regulator after the AGCM said that the information so far provided was “seriously incomplete."
Il Corriere della Sera
Sika board publication of statement deadline extended until 13 March by Swiss TOB
Yesterday evening the Swiss Takeover Board announced it has extended the deadline set in the decision 594/01 of March 5, 2015 for the publication of the Sika Board of directors' statement in the newspapers until 13 March, 2015.
Sika is the subject of a takeover bid by French group Saint-Gobain.
The full TOB statement can be read below in German only.
Source Regulatory Authority Press Release
Dow+0,78% S&P+0,39% Nasdaq+0,31% Russell+0,50%
US Market start the week on an upbeat note, cyclical sectors fueling the early advance. Meanwhile, countercyclical groups struggled early, but only the telecom services sector (-0.3%) failed to turn positive by the closing bell. Apple (AAPL 127.09, +0.49)—showed intraday volatility, but ended higher by 0.4% after introducing new features to its MacBook lineup and unveiling the Apple Watch with retail prices for the latter ranging from $349 to more than $10,000 for a premium version crafted with gold alloys. energy sector (-0.7%) started in the lead, but settled at the bottom of the leaderboard even though crude oil advanced 0.7% to $49.96/bbl. volume were below average @ 750mil shares...US After Hours WATT +17.3%, MM +6.9%, URBN +5.8%, MIND -13.5%, TITN -12.1%, WPRT -10.2% following earnings/guidance...BBNK+14.2% on takeover news by WAL, SWKS+2.2% to replace PETM in S&P500...China inflation data were in focus in today's session, coming in mixed with a lower than expected PPI and higher than anticipated CPI. Food CPI contributed to the rebound, rising to 2.4% v 1.1% prior, while non-food CPI was up slightly at 0.9% v 0.6% prior. PPI has now been negative for 3 consecutive years, and the decline last month appears to have grown worse. NBS noted the drop was exacerbated by falling oil refining, chemical fibre, and material costs. Separately, PBoC Dep Gov Yi Gang said CPI would remain in positive territory in the near future, pointing to Japan and Europe having larger deflation risks than China. PBoC advisor Chen also noted there is no risk of hard landing in China as economy is stabilizing and improving. Japan Econ Min Amari sought to defuse overnight disappointment in slower than expected rebound in Q4 GDP, noting growth remains on solid recovery track. Amari added the downward revision was not necessarily pessimistic, since consumption is still expanding. In Europe, Greece Fin Min Varoufakis said Athens is preparing a new set of reform steps following reports that Eurogroup fin mins largely found last week's proposals to be unsatisfactory. In the mean time, ECB was reportedly planning a teleconference for Thursday to discuss the extension of ELA funding for Greece banks. In Ukraine, local military officials reported attacks by pro-Russian rebels outside the southern port of Mariupol - a large coastal city that was speculated to be the next likely target - despite reports that heavy artillery was being pulled away from the front lines by both sides.
Nikkei -0.67% Hang Seng -0.75% Shanghai -0.57%
RUB $60.70 WTI $50.02 Brent $58.27 EURCHF 1.0693 CHF 0.99
EUR$ 1.0800 S&P -0.22% EuroStoxx -0.17% SMI +0.08% DAX -0.09%
Macro
- France’s Sapin Says Need to Work ‘Extremely Quickly’ on Greece
- Greece to Appoint New National Bank Board End-Week: Naftemporiki
- China Feb. Retail Auto Sales Rise 24.8% on Year, PCA Says
Keep an eye on :
- ABI BB : AB InBev Legal Chief Chalmers Sells EU8.2 Mln of Brewer’s Stock
- AIR FP : Boeing Says Global Aviation Market Is Strong and Getting Better
- AIR FP : Airbus Sees A321 Driving 44% of Narrow-Body Output by 2016
- ANTO LN : Antofagasta Ordered to Knock Down Tailings Dam, La Segunda Says
- BESI NA : BE Semiconductor Involved in Apple Watch Production: Telegraaf
- BPI PL : Banco BPI in Talks to Raise Stake in Mozambique’s BCI
- ACA FP : Credit Agricole’s LCL to Cut 1,600 Jobs, Les Echos Says
- CSGN VX : Tidjane Thiam Said in Line to Become Next Credit Suisse CEO: FT
- EDF FP : France’s Macron Wants EDF-Areva Partnership, Not Merger: Reuters
- ELIOR FP : Elior Confirms Full-Year Targets as First-Quarter Net Jumps
- ENEL IM : Enel Turning Into Growth Utility, UBS Says; Reiterates Buy
- FCA IM : Chrysler Sued by Danaher’s Jacobs Over Engine Component Patent
- GALN VX : Galenica 2014 Ebit CHF370.2m, Est. CHF381.8m; Div. Beats BDVD
- GEBN VX : Geberit Buyback Resumption Positive Surprise, Berenberg Says, Geberit FY Results Above Estimates, To Resume Buyback Program
- GIL GY : DMG Mori Seiki AG, DMG Mori Seiki Co., Agree on Change Offer --> +3.71% in Tokyo (6141 JT)
- HNR1 GY : Hannover Re 4Q Net Income Beats Est.; Proposes Special Dividend
- LANS NA : Van Lanschot 2014 Adj. Profit EU54.2m vs EU33.5m; Doubles Div.
- MC FP : LVMH in Talks to Acquire Stake in Tous, El Confidencial Reports
- MAERSKB DC : Maersk Hires Danske to Sell Offshore Security Unit: Berlingske
- PRU LN : Prudential 2014 Operating Profit Rises 14% Y/y; Div. Beats
- RCO FP : Remy Cointreau Plans to Shut India Unit: Economic Times Link
- RWE GY : RWE 2014 Ebitda Beats, Recurrent Net in Line; Beats Costs Target
- SY1 GY : Symrise 2014 Sales Beat Ests.; Targets 2015 Ebitda Margin >20%
- UBSN VX : UBS Group Requests to Exchange Shares of UBS AG Minority Holders
- VOW3 GY : Volkswagen’s Winterkorn Sees No Acquisitions, Die Welt Reports
>>> Up
*BEKAERT RAISED TO BUY FROM HOLD AT ING
*HSBC (U.K. LISTING) RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*KUMBA IRON ORE RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT GOLDMAN
*MORRISON RAISED TO NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*NATIONAL GRID RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT GOLDMAN
*PROVIDENCE RESOURCES RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT CANTOR
*REE RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*SCHRODERS RAISED TO ADD VS HOLD AT NUMIS
>>> Down
*CAPITA CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE
*ELEMENTIS CUT TO HOLD AT JEFFERIES
*HEIDELBERGCEMENT CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*RIGHTMOVE CUT TO NEUTRAL VS CONVICTION BUY AT GOLDMAN
*SEGRO CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*WPP CUT TO NEUTRAL AT HSBC
>>> PT Chgange
>>> Initiation
*NATIONAL GRID REINITIATED HOLD AT INVESTEC, PT 834P
*POUNDLAND RATED NEW REDUCE AT NOMURA, PT 315P
>>> Call
>> stock
*BENI STABILI EXITS GOLDMAN CONVICTION BUY LIST, STAYS BUY
*ING REMOVED FROM UBS EUROPEAN KEY CALLS LIST; STAYS BUY
*KUMBA IRON ORE EXITS GOLDMAN CEEMEA FOCUS LIST
*ST. MODWEN EXITS JPMORGAN EUROPEAN ANALYST FOCUS LIST
After Hours Summary: WATT +17.3%, MM +6.9%, URBN +5.8%, MIND -13.5%, TITN -12.1%, WPRT -10.2% following earnings/guidance
After Hours Gainers:
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: WATT +17.3%, MM +6.9%, URBN +5.8%, QIHU +5.7%, XOXO +5.1%
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: BBNK +14.2% (to be acquired by Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL)), RESN +5.9% (engaged with a second customer for the design of an RF filter utilizing its Infinite Synthesized Networks, or ISN technology), RJET +4.2% (to replace MMS in the S&P SmallCap 600), QCOM +3.0% (announced increases in its capital return program), SWKS +2.2% (to replace PETM in the S&P 500), MRGE +1.7% (Guggenheim Capital disclosed a 10.9% active stake in 13D filing), SGYP +1.6% (OrbiMedCapital discloses 13.57% passive stake in 13G filing), MMS +1.5% (to replace SWKS in the S&P MidCap 400)
After Hours Losers:
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: MIND -13.5%, TITN -12.1%, WPRT -10.2%, KFY -7.9%, UNFI -7.7%, RM -7.2%, VNET -4.1%, BIOC -5.6%, MR -4.8%, FENG -3.7%, LMNR -3.4%, ACRX -1.1%, CASY -0.8%, KANG -0.5%, APTS -0.4%, IDT -0.2%
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: CLMT -5.1% (announced public offering of 6 mln common units), ROSE -5.0% (announced public offering of 12 mln common stock shares), NDLS -4.9% (disclosed that on March 9, 2015, Dan Fogarty announced he has resigned as Executive Vice President of Marketing for personal reasons), CPE -3.8% (announced 9 mln share offering of common stock), MAIN -3.7% (announced plans to make a public offering of shares of common stock), EEP -3.3% (announced it has commenced an underwritten public offering of 8 mln of its Class A Common Units representing limited partner interests), MERU -3.1% (disclosed that on March 4, 2015, it entered into an Annual Meeting Agreement with Vertex Special Opportunities Fund), TTPH -2.8% (announced it intends to offer and sell up to 3.5 mln shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering), KYTH -2.0% (announced it has commenced an underwritten public offering of $125 million of shares of its commonsjare