>>> Interesting chart - Exchange Rate % YOY & Exports YOY %

This chart could imply a strong rise in Exports regardding the move on Forex, could be a decent boost for European Equities, As I was mentionning few days ago, I still think German Names will benefit the more tof that...MDax could a winner in that Game.

I will continue to be long europe as many investors are still waiting a correction to get involved, any correction will come after a big leg up, but not now.

Dax & Mdax will be the main gainers

>>> Trian (Peltz) sends another letter to Dupont - filing It is unfortunate you

Trian (Peltz) sends another letter to Dupont - filing 

It is unfortunate you have decided not to settle this proxy contest and instead have decided to use stockholders' money to continue a time-consuming, disruptive, and costly campaign against Trian. 

After having met with most of the large institutional stockholders of DuPont over the last several weeks, we believe that there is strong interest in having a Trian principal on the DuPont board. We are also pleased with the positive feedback that we have received from DuPont stockholders regarding all of Trians nominees

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: DSKY -17.8%, PGNX -4.1%, KPTI -2.4%, SYN -2.1%, INO -0.6%, AGM -0.4%

M&A news: WLL -5.3% (the stock spiked late Friday on headlines suggesting XOM, CLR, as well as HES and STO, could be interested in the co)

Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: GDP -3.1%, SDRL -2%, HAL -1.9%, LINE -1.7%, BBEP -1.6%, STO -1.5%, BP -1.5%

Other news: ANV -71.2% (announces reciept of notice from NYSE MKT regarding pending de-listing of its common stock), NADL -9.4% (received a notice of termination from Rosneft (OJSCY) of the service order for the West Navigator in connection with the Framework Agreement), MTL -5.8% (cont weakness in Russia), NBG -5.7% (cont uncertainty in Greece), CRMD -3.6% (files for ~2.45 mln share common stock offering by selling shareholders issuable upon the exercise of warrants), MATR -3.3% (files for $75 mln mixed securities shelf offering), E -1.7% (signs a framework agreement for the development of Egypt's oil and gas resources), GWPH -1.5% (small pull back after Friday's strength), ARWR -1.1% (files for ~3.3 mln share common stock offering by selling shareholders), ZSPH -1% (files for $150 mln offering of common stock)

Analyst comments: FXCM -10.9% (downgraded to Underperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette), DD -2.4% (downgraded to Underperform from Buy at BofA/Merrill; also Trian sends additional letter to DuPont shareholders ahead of the 2015 Annual Meeting), NFLX -1.7% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Evercore ISI), HIBB -1.6% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Sterne Agee),GRMN -1% (downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), WYNN -0.8% (downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MPO +32%, AMZG +8.7%, RVLT +8.3%, CUR +4.7%,CEL +3%, STML +3%, RDNT +2.9%, GURE +2.3%, CXDC +1%, PKOH +0.5%, AKBA +0.5%, .

M&A news: LTM +5.3% (confirms it has entered into definitive agreement to be acquired by affiliates of Leonard Green & Partners and TPG;Life Time Shareholders to receive $72.10 per share in cash),SLXP +2.7% (hearing chatter that VRX will raise its bid on SLXP to $173/share; currently the offer stands at $158, while ENDP has an offer for $175), VRX +1.2% (hearing chatter that VRX will raise its bid on SLXP to $173/share; currently the offer stands at $158, while ENDP has an offer for $175), .

Other news: OMEX +21% (enters into financing agreement with strategic investor for offshore mineral and resource exploration), MVIS +16.8% (received orders totaling $14.5 mln for components for its Fortune Global 100 customer), AMRN +12.1% (cont strength following Friday's move), CTIC +5.1% (announces publication in blood of Phase 2 results of Pacritinib in patients with myelofibrosis), ACRX+4.9% (initiation of pivotal Phase 3 trial for ARX-04, as treatment of acute pain), BSX +4.5% (receives FDA approval for WATCHMAN left atrial appendage closure device), ADXS +4.4% (presents preliminary data from the Phase 1/2 clinical study of its lead immunotherapy product candidate), NBS +4.2% (updated efficacy and safety results from the one-year follow-up for its Phase 2 PreSERVE study), HBI+4.1% (will replace Avon Products (AVP) in the S&P 500), TLMR +3.2% (will replace Buffalo Wild Wings in the S&P SmallCap 600 ), HSIC +2.7% (will replace Carefusion (CFN) in the S&P 500), TSLA +2.3% (Elon Musk tweets 'Tesla press conf at 9am on Thurs about OTA software update. Affects entire Model S fleet'), SNY +2% (Sanofi-Aventis and Regeneron (REGN) announce 18-month results of ODYSSEY LONG TERM trial with Praluent published in The New England Journal of Medicine), SLG +2% (will replace Nabors Industries (NBR) in the S&P 500), SNY +2% (Sanofi-Aventis and Regeneron (REGN) announce 18-month results of ODYSSEY LONG TERM trial with Praluent published in The New England Journal of Medicine), EQIX +1.9% (will replace Denbury Resources (DNR) in the S&P 500), KKD +1.4% (modestly rebounding on light vol following last weeks earnings)

Analyst comments: BLPH +10.3% ( initiated with a Outperform at FBR Capital, among other firms),ITEK +7.7% (initiated with a Overweight at Piper Jaffray; initiated with a Buy at Nomura), KING +5.3% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), FRAN +3.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Janney), JBLU +1.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James), WSTC +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird)

WSJ : OPEC Warns U.S. Oil Boom Could Decline by Year-End

OPEC Warns U.S. Oil Boom Could Decline by Year-End
A fall would support OPEC’s action last year to defend its market share against U.S.

OPEC said Monday that U.S. oil production could start declining by the end of this year, in contrast with an energy watchdog’s report last week saying a resilient North American oil boom could dent prices.

The prediction—if it were to materialize—would provide support for a decision last year by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to maintain its output ceiling to defend its market share against a tidal wave of U.S. oil.

In its closely watched monthly market report, OPEC said growth in U.S. oil output was set to halve this year and “a drop in production can be expected to follow, possibly by late 2015” because of lower rig counts. The organization had originally said production of U.S. oil would start falling in 2018.

On Friday, the International Energy Agency, a Paris-based energy watchdog for industrialized countries, said U.S. oil output was surprisingly strong in February as oil companies focused on the most prolific oil plays. The IEA said U.S. growth would slow—not decline—in the second half of the year.

Global oil prices took a dive last week after the IEA report.

In its report Monday, OPEC said lower global oil prices—down nearly half from June last year—“could impact marginal barrel output from unconventional sources such as tight crude”—a term that includes oil extracted from shale formations through hydraulic fracturing. OPEC cited a sharp decline in U.S. rig counts and investment plans by oil companies. Already, U.S. oil production growth will only rise by 820,000 barrels a day this year, OPEC said, compared with 1.61 million barrels a day in 2014.

OPEC itself has had some woes of its own and its crude production declined by 140,000 barrels a day to 30.02 million barrels a day due to disruptions in Libya and Iraq.

OPEC raised its forecast for global oil demand by 50,000 barrels a day to 92.33 million barrels a day.

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
Gapping up: MPO +15%, AMRN +13.1%, MVIS +9.5%, IBIO +9.5%, ITEK +7.9%, CTIC +5.6%, RDNT +3.3%, LL +3.1%, CEL +3%, STML +3%, BSX +2.6%, GURE +2.3%, WBA +1.6%, TSLA +1.6%, KKD +1.4%, ASML +1.3%, SNY +1.3%, DB +1.2%, BHP +1.1%, PKOH +0.5%, AKBA +0.5%

Gapping down: GEVO -10.4%, NBG -8.1%, DSKY -7.6%, FXCM -5%, CRH -3.8%, KPTI -3.8%, MHG -3.7%, ASNA -3.6%, AXN -3.6%, PT -2.5%, DD -2.4%, AMZG -2.2%, NFLX -1.9%, E -1.8%, WLL -1.8%, PBR -1.6%, STO -1.6%, GWPH -1.4%, BP -1.3%

*VALEANT BOOSTS OFFER FOR SALIX TO $173/SHR, DJ SAYS

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

BFW 03/16 11:50 *VALEANT BOOSTS OFFER FOR SALIX TO $173/SHR, DJ SAYS

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Valeant Boosts Offer for Salix to $173/Shr in Cash, DJ Says 2015-03-16 11:56:18.878 GMT

By Joshua Fineman (Bloomberg) -- DJ cites people familiar; SLXP halted. * NOTE: March 13, Valent New Offer for Salix Could Come Close to $170/Shr * NOTE: March 11, Endo Confirms Proposal to Buy Salix for $175/Shr Cash, Stk * NOTE: March 11, Endo Confirms Proposal to Buy Salix for $175/Shr Cash, Stk</li></ul>

For Related News and Information: First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO> First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporter on this story: Joshua Fineman in New York at +1-212-617-8953 or jfineman@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Arie Shapira at +1-212-617-1488 or ashapira3@bloomberg.net

(MS) Global Economics & Strategy : What Would Make Us EM Bulls?

We are not EM bulls, to put it mildly, and have not been for nearly three years now, but for the first time in three years we can envisage a scenario in which a process of catharsis over the next 12-18 months may make things sufficiently worse so they can then get better.

* The story so far: India, Indonesia, Mexico and Taiwan have passed the point of inflexion away from their old models of growth. Progress is slow elsewhere and broken growth models remain in place (particularly in Brazil, Russia, South Africa and even Turkey), while China needs to deal with PPI deflation and deleveraging alongside ongoing reforms and the transition to a consumer economy. Fundamentals don’t yet warrant a call for a secular bull run in EM markets. Markets offer only a ‘pick your spots’ strategy (China and India equities; Asia investment grade credit; some pockets of local currency debt), not a generalised one.

* What would make us EM bulls? Calling for a secular bull run across asset classes needs a catharsis of EM balance sheets and drags on growth. Post-catharsis trend growth could well be lower, but of higher quality.

* Will the EM macro adjust? On the growth side, there has not been enough adjustment so far. We believe that economies like Brazil, Russia, South Africa and Turkey with EM-like drags on growth (inflation, external exposure) will respond more to the dynamics we describe below than the ones like China and Korea with DM-like drags on growth (deflation, debt) – though both have different dynamics. Whether China adjusts at least partly and sooner will be key.

* While a 1997/98 type crisis is not our base case, a combination of further US dollar strength ahead of a Fed rate hike, a continued deflationary shock from slowing investment spending in China and weakening EM credit growth could generate the necessary catharsis. A strong adjustment from the EM-like group and a partial one from the DM-like group according to our signposts can clean out EM balance sheets and deliver a new model of growth. Should this play out, EM asset prices could start a secular bull run from lower absolute and relative valuation levels than today.

(BN) Lafarge Open to Changing Exchange Ratio in Holcim Merger (1)

Lafarge Open to Changing Exchange Ratio in Holcim Merger (1)
2015-03-16 07:19:41.617 GMT


(Updates with Holcim statement in third paragraph.)

By Aaron Kirchfeld, Francois de Beaupuy and Jan-Henrik Förster
(Bloomberg) -- French cement company Lafarge SA said it’s
willing to consider revising the share-exchange ratio in its
planned merger with Holcim Ltd. of Switzerland though it’s not
willing to accept any other changes to the deal.
The French company received a letter from Holcim March 15
that said the Swiss cement maker doesn’t intend to pursue the
transaction under the terms agreed last July, Lafarge said in an
e-mailed statement today.
“Lafarge’s board of directors remains committed to the
project that it intends to see implemented,” the Paris-based
company said. Holcim said in a separate statement that it’s
willing to enter into negotiations in “good faith around the
exchange ratio and governance issues.”
The plans to form the world’s biggest cement maker were
announced to great fanfare in April 2014, with the heads of both
companies lauding the creation of an entity with sales of $40
billion and operations in 90 countries. Since then, Holcim has
outperformed Lafarge on everything from sales to profit,
prompting some investors in the Swiss company to call for a
bigger stake in the new entity.
Holcim has already proposed changes to the share-exchange
ratio and management as the two companies try to save the deal,
people familiar with the matter said yesterday.

New Ratio

Under the original agreement, Holcim was planning a capital
increase to create new shares and to give one of those to
Lafarge in exchange for one share of the French company. Under
the new proposal, Holcim would give 0.875 of a share in exchange
for one Lafarge share, said the people, who asked not to be
identified because negotiations are private.
Lafarge has signaled it will make a counter proposal that
would trim its weighting to 0.93 to get the deal done, the
people said. Holcim is also pushing for a change in management
including the chief executive officer of the merged company, one
of the people said. Bruno Lafont, the CEO of Lafarge, had been
picked to lead the new entity.
Representatives for the companies are scheduled to meet as
early as today as they try to reach a compromise as early as
this week, the people said. Talks are ongoing and the structure
could still change, they said, adding that both sides could also
fail to reach an agreement.

Asset Sales

Investors on both sides remain keen to see the merger go
through, and there is pressure to reach an accord before CRH Plc
investors assemble on March 19 to approve the purchase of a
large chunk of the combined business that Holcim and Lafarge
agreed to sell to comply with antitrust demands, the people
said.
CRH last month agreed to buy 6.5 billion euros ($6.8
billion) of the cement assets to grab market share. The Irish
company over a month ago raised gross proceeds of about 1.6
billion euros through a share sale to help fund the acquisition.
The euro has significantly dropped since then.
Holcim and Lafarge agreed to combine operations after the
global recession eroded demand for building materials, and as
increased competition from emerging-market rivals undermined
profits. The companies expect the combination to generate
synergies of more than 1.4 billion euros.
New leadership at the combined company is needed to ensure
those savings targets can be reached and the two companies can
work successfully together, one of the people said.
“While speculation continues to grow around a possible
change in terms we see very little chance of the merger
failing,” J&E Davy analysts said in a note earlier this month.
“We expect Holcim and Lafarge will do what it takes to conclude
the deal.”


For Related News and Information:
Lafarge Forecasts 2015 Profit Gains as Cement Markets Revive
CRH Buys Cement Assets From Holcim-Lafarge for $7.3 Billion
Holcim and Lafarge Managers Have Equal Billing in Merged Board
Holcim earnings graph: HOLN VX <Equity> FA ISBAR <GO>
Holcim enterprise value: HOLN VX <Equity> EV <GO>
Top Swiss stories: TOPS <GO>
Bloomberg Intelligence building-materials: BI BMATG <GO>
Top deal news: DTOP <GO>
Real M&A columns: NI REALMNA <GO>

To contact the reporters on this story:
Aaron Kirchfeld in London at +44-20-3525-8830 or
akirchfeld@bloomberg.net;
Francois de Beaupuy in Paris at +33-1-5365-5051 or
fdebeaupuy@bloomberg.net;
Jan-Henrik Förster in Zurich at +41-44-224-4116 or
jforster20@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Simon Thiel at +44-20-3525-2814 or
sthiel1@bloomberg.net
Andrew Noël

>>> Rolls Royce - Bronte Capital comment on one of their position - intreresting

Interesting Read.


Rolls Royce and the Sequoia letter


At Bronte we have a large position in Rolls Royce - the UK based manufacturer of jet engines.

Rolls is a relatively simple story - Rolls is part of a duopoly in engines for wide-bodied aircraft (aircraft with two aisles like the Dreamliner, A350, A380, 777 and forthcoming 777X).

Jet engines cost a fortune to develop and are sold at a loss - but with huge out-year maintenance streams.

The maintenance is potentially very profitable. If you sell a lot of copies of the jet engine maintenance margins can get very fat.

This duopoly is almost impossible to break. Not only would a company need to spend billions of dollars before they developed a competitive engine they would then need to sell the engine at a loss for many years until the maintenance streams come on.

Moreover it is risky.

If you attach your engine to an unsuccessful plane (like say the A340) production will be a few hundred copies - and you will eat all those development costs for smaller maintenance streams and you will not get scale on maintenance. Making unsuccessful engines or attaching engines to unsuccessful planes is a good way to lose a lot of money.

Contra: if you attach your engine to a hit plane like the 777 - especially if it is the only engine choice for that plane - you will make thousands of copies of the engine and develop scale in maintenance. And that is profitable in the billions - and maybe even tens of billions of dollars range.

Rolls has had a few less than successful planes in recent years - let by the A340 but probably including the A380. (The super-jumbo is wondrously fuel inefficient.)