(BFW) Brent Oil Seen by Facts Global’s Fesharaki at $35-$40 in 2Q

Brent Oil Seen by Facts Global’s Fesharaki at $35-$40 in 2Q
2015-03-24 06:25:01.170 GMT


By Anthony DiPaola
(Bloomberg) -- Oil prices will fall in 2Q on low demand,
refinery maintenance, Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman of Singapore-
based consultant FACTS Global Energy, says at conference in
Fujairah, U.A.E.
* Oil surplus seen at 2m b/d in 2Q
* Prices seen back to current level in 3Q, 4Q
* NOTE: Brent is $55.59/bbl, WTI $46.93
* Oil prices seen “low” for at least 5 yrs
* WTI discount to Brent to narrow from $8-$10/bbl now
* OPEC seen keeping policy at nxt 2 meetings
* U.S. shale breakeven seen at $80-$30/bbl


For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporter on this story:
Anthony DiPaola in Dubai at +971-4-364-1033 or
adipaola@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Nayla Razzouk at +971-4-3641056 or
nrazzouk2@bloomberg.net
Claudia Carpenter

>>> Akzo Nobel's Paper Chemicals business sale to Kemira delayed

Akzo Nobel's Paper Chemicals business sale to Kemira delayed

Akzo Nobel's Paper Chemicals subsidiary sale to Kemira, the Finnish chemicals group, is expected to complete in 2Q15 as opposed to the first quarter of this year as previously announced, the Financieele Dagblad reported, without citing a particular source.

The groups are currently awaiting approval from the Ukrainian regulatory authority, the item said.

Akzo Nobel, the Netherlands-based paint manufacturer, announced in July that it is in the process of selling its subsidiary for EUR 153m to Kemira.

Source Financieele Dagblad

WSJ : Fed’s Williams: Midyear Will Be Time to Start Rate Increase Debate

NEW YORK–Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams reiterated on Monday his belief that central bankers should consider raising rates some time this summer.

“Things are looking better–in fact, they’re looking downright good,” the official said in a speech to be delivered to an audience in Sydney and Melbourne via video.

Given how much the economy has improved and is likely to continue to gain ground, “I think that by mid-year it will be the time to have a discussion about starting to raise rates,” Mr. Williams said.

The strength of the U.S. dollar against a “broad index” of currencies is not an impediment to the U.S. economy reaching real GDP growth of 2.5% this year, he said.

“The U.S. economy has good momentum…even with what is a rather large appreciation of the U.S. dollar,” Mr. Williams said.

As interest rates are normalized, Mr. Williams warned of unintended consequences for the economy given that interest rates are a “blunt” policy tool. But he said the focus of policy should be on higher interest rates over time.

“The goal for me is just to get the economy back to full employment, get inflation back to 2.0% and get interest rates back up as appropriate, back to more normal levels,” he said.

The official’s views squared with those he’s made in recent public comments.

Mr. Williams is a voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee. His speech was his first since the Fed met last week in a gathering that opened the door further to rate rises.

The FOMC clearly signaled an active debate over pushing rates up off their current near zero levels starts with the mid-June gathering, although no timing of action was predicted.

In a view shared by Mr. Williams, the Fed again argued central bank policy will be driven by the data.

In his speech, Mr. Williams said it was important for the Fed to make policy with a long view of the outlook. He said the Fed can’t wait to hit its job and inflation objectives before acting. Acknowledging that inflation remains well below the Fed’s 2% target, Mr. Williams cautioned that “by waiting until we’re face-to-face with 2% inflation, we could drastically overshoot the mark” and have to boost rates much more dramatically then would be the case if officials started earlier.

Mr. Williams also said when rates go up, they’ll be doing so from such low levels it will be a long time before Fed policy creates real drag on growth.

“I’m not talking about instituting tight policy, I’m talking about taking a first step in pulling back somewhat on what is a very high degree of accommodation,” he said, adding “no one should worry that we’re pulling the rug out from underneath the economy.”

Mr. Williams was upbeat about the economy. An economy showing “solid momentum” should grow by 2.5% this year, and what is now a 5.5% jobless rate should fall to around the “full employment” level of 5.2% or even under 5% by year’s end or sooner, he said.

The performance of the job market gave Mr. Williams confidence inflation will rise back to target. “I’m actually quite confident that we’ll be able to reach our 2% target within the next few years,” he said.

“I expect wage pressures to build and price pressures to return to more normal levels over the course of the next two years,” which will push inflation higher, Mr. Williams said.

The official downplayed the strength of the dollar, the vigor of which has concerned some who fear it could blunt the economy’s momentum by lower exports. The dollar’s value reflects “relative” strength compared to a weak overseas economic environment, he said.

>>> What to look at today - 24th of March

Dow -0.06% S&P-0.17% Nasdaq -0.31% Russell-0.13%
Shanghai Composite is headed for its first losing session in 10 days after a surprisingly disappointing HSBC flash PMI. Manufacturing was expected to expand for the 2nd consecutive month but instead plunged into contraction, falling to its lowest level in 11 months. HSBC economist cited a renewed fall in total new business and workforce reduction, along with falling import prices as a result of oil-driven disinflation. Comments from Fed Vice Chair Fischer in today's US session reinforced last week's message that any monetary policy adjustment would be gradual, if not distant. Unlike the past tightening campaign when the Fed raised rates at every meeting, Fischer said this time rates could move up and down. Fed-speak during the Asian hours has been considerably less dovish. Fed's Bullard spoke to FT, reiterating that rates need to start rising as soon as possible to prevent the risk of "asset price bubbles with devastating consequences". Fed's Williams, who previously tilted toward the more dovish side, noted the economy is looking much better and that the Fed should be forward looking on policy without waiting for inflation to hit 2%. Similar to Fed Chair Yellen last week, Williams added the recent rally in USD had a large impact on economic forecasts, but that rates should rise despite the green back strength.

Nikkei-0.21% Hang Seng -0.25% Shanghai +0.2%

RUB $58.92 WTI $46.80(-1.37%) Brent $55.57 EURCHF 1.057 CHF 0.9679

EUR$ 1.0921 S&P +0.06% EuroStoxx +0.19% Dax -0.025% SMI +0.09%


Macro
- Soros Says Greece Is Now ‘Lose-Lose Game’ After Being Mishandled


Keep an eye on :
- ABE SM : Abertis to Sell as Much as 15% of ATT Before IPO: Confidencial
- BBVA SM : BBVA Prepares to Hire Five M&A Bankers in the US: Expansion
- FPE3 GY : Fuchs Petrolub Sees 2015 Unit Sales, Revenue, Earnings Growth
- KPN NA : Liberty Global, Altice Interested in KPN’s Base Unit: Telegraaf
- WOS LN : Wolseley Sees FY Trading Profit In Line With Consensus Estimates

>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 24th of March 2015

>>> Up
*ALMIRALL RAISED TO BUY VS UNDERPERFORM AT BOFAML
*COMMERZBANK RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT BANKHAUS LAMPE
*DANSKE BANK RAISED TO BUY AT CITI
*INTERNATIONAL PERSONAL FINANCE RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD: BERENBERG


>>> Down
*BANCO POPOLARE CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*NOS CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*SOPRA STERIA CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT BERENBERG
*TELEFONICA CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT ODDO
*WETHERSPOON CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT JEFFERIES

>>> PT Change


>>> Initiation
*BENI STABILI RATED NEW BUY AT BOFAML, PT EU0.81
*FONCIERE DES REGIONS REINSTATED NEUTRAL AT BOFAML, PT EU91
*GECINA REINSTATED NEUTRAL AT BOFAML, PT EU126.5
*ICADE REINSTATTED BUY AT BOFAML, PT EU92
*VICTORIA OIL & GAS RATED NEW BUY AT NUMIS, PT 102P
*VIRGIN MONEY RATED NEW BUY AT UBS, PT 450P

>>> Call

>>> KPN subsidiary Base attracts interest of John Malone and Patrick Drahi

KPN subsidiary Base attracts interest of John Malone and Patrick Drahi

Both John Malone, the American media giant and chairman of Liberty Global, and Patrick Drahi, a French media magnate and founder of Altice, are interested in acquiring KPN's Belgian subsidiary Base, the Financieele Telegraaf reported.

Citing sources familiar with the matter, the report said that both Malone and Drahi are currently in talks with JP Morgan, the American investment bank discussing the matter.

Although Base is not officially up for sale, KPN is believed to be interested in selling its subsidiary, the report said, citing Marc Hesselink, an ABN Amro analyst.

Base reported a 2014 turnover of EUR 711m and profit of EUR 126m, results KPN believes are 21% too low.

Base was already put up for sale in 2012 with an asking price of around EUR 1.6-1.8bn, but KPN did not receive bids within this price range.

Altice is only operative in Belgium through its subsidiary Numéricable. It is therefore likely that if Altice decides to acquire Base, this deal will only go through after having acquired Voo, a Belgian government-owned Walloon cable provider.

According to a previous report from this news service, KPN aims to raise around EUR 1bn when selling Base, lower than the 2012 asking price.

None of the parties involved were in a position to comment on the matter, the report said.

Source De Financieele Telegraaf

WSJ China’s Stumble Is More Than Seasonal


China’s Stumble Is More Than Seasonal

Play it again, Sam, could be the unofficial motto of the Chinese economy this time of year.

For the fourth year in a row, China has stumbled out of the gate. The latest sign was HSBC’s preliminary purchasing managers index for March, which dipped below 50, indicating a contraction in activity.

A separate proxy measure of growth by Capital Economics—mixing electricity production, transport usage, and the like—is at its lowest since the 2003 SARS crisis. The proxy indicates growth on a year-over-year basis in the first quarter will dip below the government’s full-year target of 7%.

Advertisement
China naturally starts the year slowly because of the Lunar New Year holiday, during which factories shut down and workers go home. But that happens every year, so year-over-year growth indicators should take that into account.

ENLARGE
The ever-slower starts could be because companies have less cushion and confidence than they used to, suggests Andrew Batson of GaveKal Dragonomics. Corporate decision makers become scared that the slow start to the year wasn’t just a bump in the road, but the start of a prolonged downturn.

A property market that has failed to respond to the removal of lending curbs could be intensifying fears that this year is different. Most entrepreneurs in China are property investors in some form, through their companies’ use of real estate as collateral and investment, or because they own property in their personal accounts. A 5% drop in prices nationwide is understandably undermining confidence.

Stock market investors seem to think the slow start is fodder for Beijing to pump more stimulus into the economy. The Shanghai Composite, already up strongly thanks to interest-rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts, has taken another leg up and is now 14% higher than where it started the year.

And it does look increasingly likely that Beijing will have to do more to support growth. A campaign of bank reserve-requirement cuts, more interest rate cuts, further loosening of property curbs and increased fiscal spending from the central government are in the cards.

The official target for government deficit spending is 2.3% of GDP, though Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said it will actually be 2.7%. Because outstanding government debt is low, there’s room for Beijing to borrow. It’s a sign of the times that China’s deficit spending could run higher than America’s, which the Congressional Budget Office pegs at 2.6% this year.

The past few years, China has been able to prevent slow starts from getting too far out of control. As time goes by, China will have to dig deeper to keep up the streak.

Write to Alex Frangos at alex.frangos@wsj.com


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>>> US After Hours : VCEL +16.7%, DGLY +15.0%, CHRS +7.4%, CCM

After Hours Summary: VCEL +16.7%, DGLY +15.0%, CHRS +7.4%, CCM -16.1%, JRJC -14.7%, FLXN -1.3% following earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: VCEL +16.7%, DGLY +15.0%, CHRS +7.4%, EPRS +5.8%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: VOXX +9.2% (co's iris authentical product, EyeLock, was mentioned positively on CNBC), CHK +3.4% (reduced 2015 CapEx budget to $3.5-4.0 bln from $4.0-4.5 bln; Carl Icahn increased stake to 10.98% from 9.98%), EGL +2.6% (co was awarded an Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity multiple-award contract with a $1 bln ceiling to provide technical advisory services to the U.S. Agency for International Development), ABMD +1.7% (confirmed Impella 2.5 received FDA approval for elective and urgent high risk percutaneous coronary intervention procedures), RICE +1.2% (co announced pricing of $400 mln of 7.25% senior notes due 2023 at 99.233%, for a yield to maturity of 7.375%),

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: CCM -16.1%, JRJC -14.7%, FLXN -1.3%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: WLL -11.7% (announced offering of 35 mln shares of common stock; also anounces private offerings of $1 bln of convertible senior notes due 2020 and $750 mln of senior notes due 2023), ZSPH -5.3% (announced proposed public offering of 3.3 mln shares of its common stock), GLP -4.7% (announced that the owners of AE Holdings Corp. are selling 1,956,234 common units in an underwritten secondary public offering), HTGC -3.5% (announced that it is offering 6.6 mln shares of common stock pursuant to an effective shelf registration statement in an underwritten public offering), SAAS -3.3% (announced intention to offer $100 mln of Convertible Senior Notes due 2022), GLOB -3.3% (announced that certain of its shareholders have commenced a secondary public offering of 2,906,266 common shares), LQ -2.4% (announced a secondary offering of 17.5 mln shares of common stock, by selling stockholders affiliated with The Blackstone Group), DPLO -2.3% (announced that it has commenced its follow-on public offering of 7.4 mln shares of its common stock; 3.0 mln shares will be sold by selling shareholders), KW -2.1% (announced plans to sell 7.5 mln shares of its common stock)

>>> US Close

Closing Market Summary: Cyclical Sectors Lead Modest Retreat

The stock market began the trading week on a sleepy note. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.1%) and S&P 500 (-0.2%) surrendered their slim gains during the final hour while the Nasdaq Composite settled lower by 0.3% after lagging throughout the session.

Equity indices spent the entire Monday session near their flat lines while the Dollar Index (96.86, -1.05) extended its retreat that began late last week. The index fell 1.1% with the greenback giving up 1.4% to the euro (1.0966). The single currency rallied in the morning and saw little afternoon reaction to a joint press conference held by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. The two leaders did not provide any specifics about their earlier meeting, suggesting the two sides remain at odds with regard to finding a sustainable solution for Greece.

Today's dollar pullback was a supportive factor for crude oil as the energy component climbed off its overnight low ($45.35/bbl) to end higher by 1.8% at $47.44/bbl. WTI crude spent the bulk of the day near its flat line, but spiked ahead of the pit close without any headlines to account for the move.

Interestingly, the energy sector (-0.2%) began among the leaders, but retreated steadily throughout the session. As for other cyclical groups, technology (+0.1%) and consumer discretionary (-0.1%) outperformed while financials (-0.4%) and industrials (-0.8%) struggled.

The industrial sector was pressured by transport stocks after Kansas City Southern (KSU 106.48, -9.21) lowered its guidance. The company cited slower year-to-date carload growth, devaluation of the Mexican peso against the dollar, and lower fuel surcharge revenue as reasons for the reduced outlook. Shares of KSU plunged 8.0% while the broader Dow Jones Transportation Average lost 2.0%.

On the flip side, the technology sector was underpinned by its top component—Apple (AAPL 127.21, +1.31)—and a spate of other large cap names while high-beta chipmakers lagged. NVIDIA (NVDA 22.71, -0.76) was a notable laggard, falling 3.2%, after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to ‘Sell.' For its part, the PHLX Semiconductor Index lost 1.0%.

Furthermore, the relative weakness among chipmakers contributed to the underperformance of the Nasdaq Composite. The tech-heavy index had to contend with broad-based losses in the biotech space after Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX 125.79, -5.21) reported below-consensus results from one of its trials while Gilead Sciences (GILD 100.26, -2.03) was clipped after Bloomberg reported that some patients who had been taking Gilead's hepatitis C drugs in combination with certain heart drugs have developed complications. Vertex and Gilead lost 4.0% and 2.0%, respectively while iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 358.28, -8.24) settled lower by 2.3%.

Biotechnology also weighed on the health care sector, keeping the group in-line with the market. The remaining countercyclical sectors displayed relative strength with utilities (+0.1%), telecom services (+0.1%), and consumer staples (+0.3%) ending ahead of the broader market.

Treasuries settled on their highs with the 10-yr yield down three basis points at 1.91%.

Today's participation was below average with roughly 716 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data was limited to existing home sales for February, which increased 1.2% from January to an annualized rate of 4.88 million units (consensus 4.90 million).

Supply problems continue exerting downward pressure on home sales. Inventories remained at a 4.6 months' supply at the current sales rate for the second consecutive month. During normal periods of market activity, inventories are generally maintained at 6.0 months' supply.

Tomorrow, February CPI (consensus 0.2%) and core CPI (consensus 0.1%) will be released at 8:30 ET while the FHFA Housing Price Index will cross at 9:00 ET. The day's data will be topped off with the 10:00 ET release of the New Home Sales report for February (consensus 465K).
  • Nasdaq Composite +5.8% YTD 
  • Russell 2000 +5.1% YTD 
  • S&P 500 +2.2% YTD 
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +1.6% YTD

>>> Asian Update

Asian Mid-session Update: China PMI returns to contraction; ADB sees continued China slowdown

***Economic Data***
- (CN) CHINA MAR HSBC FLASH MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.2 V 50.5E (11-month low)
- (CN) CHINA FEB CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX M/M: 1.5% V 0.5% PRIOR; 2-year high and 11th consecutive increase
- (JP) JAPAN MAR PRELIM MARKIT/JMMA MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.4 V 52.0E (10-month low)
- (AU) Australia Jan Conference Board Leading index m/m: 0.4% v 0.3% prior (3rd consecutive increase)
- (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 111.4 v 110.8 prior

***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 -0.2%, S&P/ASX +0.2%, Kospi -0.1%, Shanghai Composite -1.2%, Hang Seng -0.4%, Jun S&P500 flat at 2,095

***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Apr gold -0.2% at $1,186/oz, May crude oil -1.0% at $46.99/brl, May copper -3.0% at $2.79/lb
- SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 10,118 tonnes from 10,163 tonnes prior; lowest since Feb 22nd
- (CN) PBoC to inject CNY20B in 7-day reverse repos (8th consecutive injection); Offers yield at 3.55% v 3.65% prior on Mar 18th (3rd straight week of 10bp decline)
- USD/CNY: PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1398 v 6.1448 prior setting (strongest yuan setting since Feb 26th)
- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$200M in 1.25% bonds due 2022; Avg yield: 0.0542%; Bid-to-cover: 4.36x

***Market Focal Points/FX***
- Shanghai Composite is headed for its first losing session in 10 days after a surprisingly disappointing HSBC flash PMI. Manufacturing was expected to expand for the 2nd consecutive month but instead plunged into contraction, falling to its lowest level in 11 months. HSBC economist cited a renewed fall in total new business and workforce reduction, along with falling import prices as a result of oil-driven disinflation. AUD/USD hit its lows below 0.7840 on the release, down about 60pips from early highs, while NZD/USD was down over 40pips below 0.7630. Separately, the stronger rise in Jan China Conference Board leading index was attributed to the Lunar New Year demand. Local press also speculated Shanghai would allow home buyers using Housing Provident Fund to borrow up to 50% more than under previous quota in a bid to prop up prices after a disappointing property sector report last week.

- Asia Development Bank 2015 Outlook raised developing Asia GDP to 6.3% from 6.2% and also forecast 2016 at 6.3%. ADB also affirmed China at 7.2% - down from 7.4% last year - with 2016 estimated to fall further to 7.0%. South Korea was cut by 0.3pts to 3.5%, but India projections were lifted all the way to 7.8% from 6.3%. ADB pointed to strengthening recovery in the major industrial economies and soft global commodity prices contributing to steady regional growth expectations, but also warned policymakers to be vigilant of potential risks.

- Comments from Fed Vice Chair Fischer in today's US session reinforced last week's message that any monetary policy adjustment would be gradual, if not distant. Unlike the past tightening campaign when the Fed raised rates at every meeting, Fischer said this time rates could move up and down. Fed-speak during the Asian hours has been considerably less dovish. Fed's Bullard spoke to FT, reiterating that rates need to start rising as soon as possible to prevent the risk of "asset price bubbles with devastating consequences". Fed's Williams, who previously tilted toward the more dovish side, noted the economy is looking much better and that the Fed should be forward looking on policy without waiting for inflation to hit 2%. Similar to Fed Chair Yellen last week, Williams added the recent rally in USD had a large impact on economic forecasts, but that rates should rise despite the green back strength.

***Equities***
US equities / ADRs:
- DGLY: Reports Q4 -$0.30 v -$0.74 y/y, R$5.42M v $3.5M y/y; +14.6% afterhours
- CHK: Updates Its 2015 Operating Plan in Response to Low Commodity Price Environment; Lowers capital budget forecast to $3.5-4.0B from $4.0-4.5B; +2.4% afterhours
- PBR: S&P revises outlook to Negative from Stable; Affirms CCR at BBB-; -1.4% afterhours
- LQ: Announces Secondary Offering of 17.5M Shares of Common Stock for Blackstone affiliates (13% of shares outstanding); -2.4% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: Kathmandu Holdings KMD.AU -11.8% (H1 results); Qantas Airways QAN.AU -2.3% (ACCC to deny Qantas, China Eastern coordination)
- Materials: New Hope Corporation NHC.AU +1.6% (H1 results); Fortescue Metals Group FMG.AU +1.8% (said to sell asset); Anhui Conch Cement 914.HK -1.3% (FY14 results)
- Industrials: Worley Parsons WOR.AU +2.2% (shareholder raises stake); Mazda Motor Corp 7261.JP +1.9% (comments on diesel vehicles); Qinhuangdao Port 3369.HK +7.8% (FY14 results)
- Technology: Sharp Corp 6753.JP +2.0% (extended investment talk with Hon Hai); GS Yuasa Corp 6674.JP -3.2% (cuts FY14/15 guidance); Leshi Internet Info & Tech 300104.CN +3.5% (enters strategic cooperation with BAIC on internet cars); Coolpad Group 2369.HK -3.4% (FY14 results)
- Utilities: Oki Electric Industry 6703.JP +2.7% (speculation over FY14/15 results)