(BFW) Gategroup Compromises With Hedge Funds on Board Candidates


Gategroup Compromises With Hedge Funds on Board Candidates
2015-04-03 10:06:53.634 GMT


By Jeffrey Vögeli
(Bloomberg) -- Gategroup proposes 2 of its candidates and 2
candidates proposed by RBR Capital and Cologny Advisors to
resolve impasse, co. says in statement.
* RBR, Cologny agree to vote in favor of 7-member board of
directors at AGM April 16,
* Julie Southern, David Barger, Gerard van Kesteren, Frederick
Reid proposed as new board members
* Chairman Andreas Schmid, Remo Brunschwiler, Anthonie Stal up
for re-election
* NOTE: Gategroup rejected earlier board member proposal from
RBR, Cologny


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FT : Lafarge-Holcim urged to pick chief with power to unify factions

Lafarge-Holcim urged to pick chief with power to unify factions

Lafarge-Holcim needs a chief executive with international experience to lead the combined cement group and they must not come from a purely French or Swiss background, Lafarge’s largest shareholder has urged.
Speaking for the first time since the €41bn deal was brought back from the brink of disaster two weeks ago, Gérard Lamarche, who is joint managing director of Groupe Bruxelles Lambert, said the new leader will have to forge a “new culture”.

“The new chief executive will have to unify, integrate and organise the two groups as well as create a new culture. So it should be someone with different experience and with an international profile,” he said.
Cultural differences between France’s Lafarge and Swiss cement rival Holcim were partly blamed for the bitter conflict that developed between Lafarge chief executive Bruno Lafont and the Holcim team over the past year.
The tensions eventually led to a campaign by Holcim to remove Mr Lafont from the top operational role two weeks ago. Holcim won the battle and also renegotiated the financial terms of the deal in their favour.
Two candidates thought to be in the running to be chief executive are Thomas Farrell, Lafarge’s executive vice-president of operations who is American, and Eric Olsen, the Franco-American national who has the same title.
Guillaume Roux, vice-president of operations, also has French and American citizenship and is another contender. Jean-Jacques Gauthier, chief financial officer has a more French background, although he did spend time in the US and is a German speaker.
Mr Lamarche, whose GBL group owns 21 per cent of Lafarge, said the decision would be made in the coming weeks and praised the role of Mr Lafont.
“For over a year Bruno has been one of the main architects of this merger . . . He had a major part in what has been done,” he said. “He will have a key role to play in what is left to do.”
Mr Lamarche said that Mr Lafont had managed to get antitrust clearance for the merger quicker than many analysts had anticipated and led the sale of €6.5bn of assets to Irish group CRH. Both were major hurdles to the deal progressing.
Bruno has been one of the main architects of this merger. He will have a key role to play in what is left to do
- Gérard Lamarche, Groupe Bruxelles Lambert
Despite the financial adjustment won by Holcim, the transaction is still a “merger of equals”, said Mr Lamarche. The new terms mean that Lafarge shareholders will own about 44 per cent of the new company, down from 47 per cent before.
Mr Lafont will be co-chairman of the new group along with Wolfgang Reitzle, Holcim’s chairman, and the two companies will have an equal number of board seats.
“It is always possible on one side or the other to say that there is not enough of this or not enough of the other,” said Mr Lamarche.
“The truth is that what the new group has to offer its future stakeholders is considerable value creation,” he said, adding that returning cash to shareholders would be a key goal of the new group.

One of the final difficulties ahead of the Holcim shareholder meeting to discuss the deal on May 7 — where it will require two-thirds of shareholder votes to secure approval — is the continued opposition of Russia’s Eurocement, which owns 10.6 per cent of Holcim.
Mr Lamarche said he supported the proposition by Mr Reitzle this week of giving a board seat to Eurocement, although he said that there should be no other concessions to the dissenting group in terms of more money or shares.
“I think there is nothing else to discuss. Eurocement is a shareholder like all the other ones,” he said. “But it is normal that with 5 to 6 per cent of the [new] company he is welcome to the board.”
But he added: “We do not know if Eurocement wants to be on the board. [Being] on the board means you are a long-term investor, and that is not yet confirmed.”

Barron's : A Win-Win Opportunity at Vivendi


A Win-Win Opportunity at Vivendi

Dow Jones Global Indexes | Global Stock Markets
Vivendi could offer investors something rare and potentially rewarding—a win-win opportunity.


A minority shareholder’s attempt to force the French media and telecoms giant to return nine billion euros ($9.8 billion) of its swelling cash pile to investors could result in a huge windfall. But if the bid fails–and right now that seems likely–don’t worry. Investors will be left holding stock in a company run by a chairman sometimes likened to Warren Buffett, with a track record for value creation.
Either way, Vivendi (ticker: VIV.France) looks like a good bet.
At Thursday’s closing price of €23.23, Vivendi trades at a multiple of about 38 times projected 2016 earnings, which appears expensive. But Vivendi is undergoing a radical overhaul. In the past couple of years, the Paris-based company has unloaded most of its prized telecommunications assets, such as French operator SFR and Brazilian subsidiary GVT.
Vivendi’s balance sheet has swung from €11.1 billion in net debt at the end of 2013 to one that could show net cash of €12.4 billion by mid-2015. That is equivalent to about €9 per share and 40% of its market value of €31.4 billion.
It is that hoard that P. Schoenfeld Asset Management is looking to unlock. PSAM, which owns less than 1% of Vivendi’s shares, argues that the company has given vague guidance on what it will do with the money and trades at a discount to its excess cash over fears it could sit on the money or make an unwise acquisition. PSAM thinks the shares are worth up to €27.50.


Vivendi has been slow to make acquisitions, citing high valuations and a desire to allocate capital carefully. And its current plans to return cash to shareholders aren’t overly generous. The company expects to pay €1 billion in dividends this year—for a yield of 4%—and again next. It has also allocated €2.7 billion to buybacks, but at a maximum purchase price of €20 per share, or 14% below the current quote.
Vivendi could and should loosen its purse strings to shareholders. Cash generates virtually zero return, and the company would have little trouble raising fresh funds in future if needed.
PSAM’s resolution, which will be voted on at the shareholders’ meeting on April 17, seeks a return of over €9 billion, or about €6.65 a share to investors. But it will have a hard time garnering support, especially from those that have profited from the shake-up championed by Vincent Bolloré.
Bolloré is widely respected in Europe as a smart investor. His listed investment vehicle Bolloré (BOL.France) accumulated a stake in Vivendi in 2012, giving him a seat on the board. He was appointed chairman last year. He has said that he is intent on creating value by transforming the company into a focused media player.
Investors seem prepared to stick by him, and why wouldn’t they? Shares have gained 36% since Bolloré joined the board in December 2012. Indeed, he has a knack for creating value. After gaining control of advertising company Havas (HAV.France) in 2005, he restructured the company and cleaned up the balance sheet, turning a position of net debt into net cash. The stock has gained 64% in that time.


FAITH IN BOLLORÉ’S ABILITY to use Vivendi’s cash wisely and to increase the value of its remaining assets could be well placed. After divestitures are completed, Vivendi’s core businesses will be French pay-TV leader Canal+ and Universal Music Group, which has more than 30% of the global market for music publishing.
PSAM favors a spinoff of the music group, even as it acknowledges that UMG has great prospects due to the growth in music streaming services. It sees earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization growing to more than €$1.4 billion in 2018 from €688 million last year.
That confident outlook shouldn’t prevent shareholders taking an important safety measure to keep Bolloré in check. Large institutions have proposed a resolution to maintain the principle of one share, one vote. Under French law, shares held for two years acquire double voting rights, essentially strengthening the hands of insiders at the expense of short-term investors.
In recent days, Bolloré has raised his stake to about 12% as the board’s spat with PSAM has become increasingly heated. That stake could afford him 24% voting rights in 2017. Some investors worry that would allow Bolloré too much control. The company opposes the resolution, as well as the resolution proposed by PSAM. But it seems a prudent step to take.
EUROPEAN STOCKS JUMPED 16% in the first quarter of 2015, the best performance since the third quarter of 2009, and there should be more to come.
The low interest-rate environment and the weak euro create conditions for more upside. German shares produced their best quarter since 2003, climbing 22%, while French equities gained 18%.

WSJ Dexia to Provision for €395 million of Bonds in Defunct Hypo Alpe-Adria-Bank

Dexia to Provision for €395 million of Bonds in Defunct Hypo Alpe-Adria-Bank
Move follows Austria’s decision to impose losses on failed financial group’s bondholders


BRUSSELS—Dexia SA, the rump of a once-sprawling Franco-Belgian banking group, on Friday said it holds 395 million euros ($436 million) in bonds of defunct Austrian financial institution Hypo Alpe-Adria-Bank International AG and warned it would set aside money to cover possible losses on the bonds.

The decision comes after Austrian authorities earlier this week said they would impose losses on the failed bank’s bondholders, even those covered by guarantees from the regional Austrian government of Carinthia.

Dexia collapsed in 2011, as funding problems became too acute for the bank to endure. The Belgian government took over Dexia’s Belgian bank, renaming it Belfius. The French government helped take over the French parts of the bank. Other businesses were sold off.

Dexia SA is all that is left. It holds a portfolio of higher-risk assets accumulated from across the group’s former lending empire—assets like the Hypo bonds.

Dexia said its bonds benefit from the guarantee from Carinthia. But Austria’s finance minister said those guarantees wouldn’t be honored.

The decision effectively places some of the burden on the Belgian government’s finances, since it offered guarantees for debt issued by Dexia to prevent the group’s bondholders from taking a hit in Dexia’s collapse.

The Belgian finance minister Johan Van Overtveldt said he would discuss the situation with his Austrian counterpart on the sidelines of a meeting of eurozone finance ministers next week. The situation in Austria shows that Dexia and its government shareholders must “adopt an attitude of vigilance to protect and preserve in the best way possible the interests of Belgian taxpayers.”

Dexia said the amount it will set aside for losses on the bonds “will be determined in light of further developments of the situation.”

Close

WSJ : Bayer’s CEO Injects a Dose of U.S. Risk-Taking


Bayer’s CEO Injects a Dose of U.S. Risk-Taking
CEO Dekkers prepares for spinoff of specialty-plastics

Bayer AG has long been a household name to Americans who associate its iconic cross logo with the painkiller. Few know the 150-year-old German pharmaceuticals giant’s product line also includes brands from Flintstones chewable vitamins to blood thinner Xarelto.

Marijn Dekkers, Bayer’s Dutch-born, U.S.-trained chief executive, is out to change that.

Since he took the helm in 2010, Mr. Dekkers has rocked Bayer’s staid culture by demanding that division heads have marketing backgrounds rather than science pedigrees. He presided over the launch of five new blockbuster drugs and has beefed up the group’s over-the-counter drug business with the $14.2 billion acquisition of U.S.-based Merck & Co.’s consumer-care division.


Now he is preparing to spin off Bayer’s $10 billion specialty-plastics business, part of a larger effort to refocus the company on its health-care and agriculture businesses.

Mr. Dekkers, who is 57 years old and spent 25 years of his career in the U.S., says he is trying to transplant the best of American corporate culture to his overly planned German company. His priorities have been speed, adaptability and more risk-taking.

U.S. companies often operate on an “80-20 rule,” he said in a recent interview, meaning they begin to execute ideas with only 80% of necessary data in hand. “Here, if I would be kind, in the beginning, we had a 99-1 rule. And I’m kind.”

Mr. Dekkers suggested Bayer’s aversion to risk was rooted in Germans’ fear of failing. More broadly, that sensibility explains the lack of a “venture-capital mentality,” which is hurting the country’s global competitiveness, he said.

Bayer CEO Marijn Dekkers has rocked Bayer’s staid culture by demanding that division heads have marketing backgrounds rather than science pedigrees.
An avid tennis player, Mr. Dekkers said that while living in Boston, half the friends he played against were venture capitalists. After five years in Germany, he added, “I have yet to meet the first tennis partner who’s a venture capitalist.”

Instead, his tennis partners tend to be lawyers, tax consultants and financial types—“a lot of consultants,” he said, underscoring the apparent dearth of venture capitalists in the German business world.

Bayer’s makeover under Mr. Dekkers is the latest for a company founded to produce synthetic dyes, and which in the 1920s and 1930s was a major player in the I.G. Farben chemicals cartel—a supplier of Zyklon B and other deadly chemicals for the Nazi war machine. Today it is the largest company by market value—with a market capitalization of €118 billion ($128 billion)—in Germany’s DAX-30 blue chip index and should retain that title after the plastics divestment. Bayer employs 118,000 workers world-wide and took in €42.2 billion in revenue in 2014.

The plastics division, called Material Science, could be spun off directly to shareholders but Mr. Dekkers suggested an initial public offering could be preferable because it would generate cash. He said Bayer’s €20 billion in debt “is not an impossible number” but limits financial “flexibility.” Cutting debt “would always be good,” he said.

Plans to divest Material Science started about a year ago. As executives discussed company strategy, it was clear the business would require big capital investments to stay competitive. “I said, ‘We can just not do this anymore,’” Mr. Dekkers recalled, noting that investing in the health-care or crop-science businesses yields far greater returns.

Crop Science posted earnings before interest and taxes of €1.81 billion last year, while Health Care reported an EBIT of €3.58 billion for last year, boosted by sales of the five new prescription drugs. That series includes Xarelto, which operates under a partnership with Johnson & Johnson in the U.S.; eye treatment Eylea; cancer drugs Stivarga and Xofigo; and pulmonary hypertension drug Adempas, which contributed combined sales of €2.9 billion last year and are projected to reach near €4 billion in 2015.

Material Science—which manufactures polycarbonate, polyurethane and other polymers used in products ranging from laptops to soccer balls—contributed EBIT of only €555 million, down from €1.04 billion in 2007.

Still, some analysts are skeptical that Bayer’s drug pipeline is strong enough to deliver many new products with selling power like the current wave. But Bayer expects at least three new drugs in midstage clinical testing, including two for chronic heart failure, to advance this year. “Strong data is expected” for those trials, said Ali Al-Bazergan, an analyst at Datamonitor Healthcare in London.

Mr. Al-Bazergan said Bayer’s pharmaceutical division is poised to benefit from new synergies as the group becomes a more integrated life-sciences company.

Investors have largely welcomed Mr. Dekkers efforts to streamline Bayer. Its share price hit an all-time high of €145.85 in mid-March, up roughly 60% from a year earlier.

“Dekkers is definitely listening to shareholders,” said Odile Rundquist, an analyst with Helvea SA of the Baader Bank Group, who credits investors with prompting Bayer’s tighter focus.

“Material Science really didn’t fit in a life-sciences company,” said Markus Manns, a portfolio manager at Bayer shareholder Union Investment Privatfonds GmbH.

That strategy fits a growing trend in the drug industry, said Ms. Rundquist, noting that Switzerland’s Novartis AG and the UK’s GlaxoSmithKline PLC have both recently taken similar paths.

Mr. Dekkers said he faced initial resistance to the separation from employee representatives on the supervisory board who were concerned about maintaining the division’s 17,000 jobs. He ultimately won approval from all 10 representatives by guaranteeing current employment levels for a number of years, he said.

The planned divestment comes on the heels of the Merck acquisition, which allows Bayer to expand its nonprescription offerings and stamp the Bayer cross on products ranging from Claritin allergy medicine to Coppertone sunscreen.

Mr. Dekkers’s bet in the Merck deal is that Bayer’s global consumer sales network offers a pipeline for its new American products to other countries, while shoring up the Bayer brand in the U.S.

The brand name is important to Mr. Dekkers, who recalls that when he joined Bayer he thought its OTC offering “was just aspirin.” American consumers, he said, “used to see ‘Bayer’ only on aspirin—the ugly yellow bottle.”

Mr. Dekkers left the Netherlands for the U.S. in 1985, with no plans to return. His American career included stints at General Electric Co., where he currently sits on the board, Honeywell International Inc. and, most recently, at Thermo Fischer Scientific Inc., where he was chief executive.

When he moved to Germany five years ago with a U.S. passport and an American wife and children—who spoke neither Dutch nor German—some Bayer staff worried he was “just an American,” or “somebody who was just interested in shareholder value,” he said.

One former Bayer employee, who was with the company from 2006 through 2014, said some staff had feared the company’s small-town, traditional values would be undermined by a foreigner. “Leverkusen was Bayer town,” the person said, noting that Bayer used to run a local swimming pool—which it stopped doing well before Mr. Dekkers came aboard—and still sponsors a local equestrian club. Bayer sponsors 26 clubs in total, including the professional Bayer 04 Leverkusen team.

The person said initial employees fears have largely dissipated, while Mr. Dekkers has struck a balance between addressing shareholder concerns and respecting company tradition.

For Mr. Dekkers, who is set to step down at the end of 2016 and will likely return to the U.S., the goal of his tenure has been to find the right balance between the American and German business approaches. “Making it more 90-10 than 80-20 or 99-1 is very important,” he said.

>>> Weekly Market Update: Iran Deals, Payrolls Bomb

Weekly Market Update: Iran Deals, Payrolls Bomb

The first quarter of 2015 came to an end this week, with Europe and Asia equities up big, while the S&P500 underperformed and the DJIA posted a losing quarter for the first time in two years. There were some green shoots in European and Chinese data. China's March PMI data showed manufacturing returned to expansion after two months of contraction, while Euro Zone manufacturing registered its 21st straight month of growth. But Friday's US payrolls data disappointed, posting the worst gain in over a year, and sending treasury yields and the dollar lower. The Iran talks were extended past the Tuesday deadline, allowing negotiators to arrive at a preliminary agreement that hopes to curtail Tehran's nuclear ambitions. For the week, the DJIA rose 0.3%, the S&P500 gained 0.3% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.1%.

Though most Western markets were closed for Good Friday, the US Labor Department remained open on the religious holiday and released a hair raising jobs report. March Nonfarm payrolls came in at a +126K versus the +245K estimate and February was revised down by over 30K, taking the Q1 average monthly gain down to +197K (vs. +324K in Q4). Similar to last year's slow start, the weak numbers were largely blamed on poor weather conditions. In illiquid holiday trading, the dollar sank after the jobs reports. After remaining in a fairly tight range through early Friday, the greenback slid about 1% to one-week lows against other major currencies, rising to above 1.10 against the euro and dropping below 119 yen. The 10-year treasury yield approached a two month low around 1.82% after the payrolls number.

The Iran nuclear talks went into double overtime, with the P5+1 negotiators extending talks through Thursday after missing the deadline to reach a preliminary deal on Tuesday. The additional 48 hours of talks yielded a framework agreement that, if fully implemented, will curtail Iran's nuclear activities for up to 25 years. In the draft document, Iran agreed to remove or dilute 95% of its enriched uranium stockpiles, and to confine its centrifuge operations to one location, moves that purportedly would extend Iran's "break out" period for developing a nuclear weapon to more than 12 months. In return, the EU and US agreed to lift all financial and economic sanctions once IAEA inspectors confirm Iran's compliance. The preliminary deal starts the clock on a more detailed final round of talks with a June 30th deadline.

Elsewhere in the tumultuous Middle East, the Saudi-led coalition continued bombing Yemen even as Houthi rebels consolidated their grasp on most of the country and began taking the key port city of Aden, the last big holdout of government forces. Saudi ground forces gathered on the Yemen border have not entered the country yet.

The weekly inventory reports whipped crude prices around again. API crude inventories registered their third consecutive build, while the DOE report notched its 12th straight build in inventories. However, the gain seen in the DOE report more or less met expectations for the first time in weeks, with no big overshoot, lending some strength to prices on Wednesday. WTI managed to stay in the high $40's and Brent in the mid-$50's all week. Crude didn't lose much ground even as a nuclear deal started to shape up, as the prospects of Iranian oil flooding the market were tempered by comments from Secretary of State Kerry that it may take Tehran as much as a year reach compliance with the agreement.

The launch of ECB QE and euro weakness helped boost European equities in Q1: the DAX index gained 22% in the quarter, its best performance since the second quarter of 2003, while the EuroSTOXX gained 16%. EUR/USD was down 11%, while the ICE dollar index gained 9% in the first quarter, its best performance since 2008, and pushed out to a 12-year high. Asian indices did very well too: the Shanghai Composite gained 16% while the Nikkei advanced more than 10%. The S&P 500 eked out a slight quarterly gain, its ninth in a row, while the DJIA turned negative for the quarter after taking a 200-point hit on the final day of the month. Tech stocks and small caps outperformed, with the Nasdaq up 3.5% in the quarter and the Russell 2000 up 4%. The 10-year UST yield fell nearly 24 basis points, from 2.173% to 1.937%.

Yet another round of funding talks between Greece and its European partners ended inconclusively on Tuesday. Greece submitted a list of proposed reforms, including an extra €4.7-6.1B in revenues and more concessions, but EU officials said they did not expect a deal before the next scheduled meeting of euro zone finance ministers, in Riga on April 24th. There were concerns that Greece might defer payment of a €450M IMF loan that is due on April 9th, which would constitute a big breach of Greece's commitments, but EU officials said the country would be able to make the payments.

The ECB released minutes from last month's meeting, although there was little earthshaking in the document. The notes suggest policymakers still worry that risks to the economic outlook remain to the downside, with national representatives somewhat skeptical of the ECB's raised growth forecasts for 2016 and 2017. Central bank representatives cited worries about Greece and wider geopolitical problems in the Middle East and Ukraine as possible problems for the outlook.

Fiat Chrysler recorded its 60th straight month of US sales gains in March while Ford, Nissan and General Motors saw sales contract. Toyota's sales gained a strong 4.9% y/y in the month, while GM was down 2%, Nissan dropped 2.7% and Ford fell 3.4%. Given the bad weather, analysts had projected that overall sales volume would fall for the first time in more than a year.

In M&A news, UnitedHeath struck a deal to acquire pharmacy benefit manager Catamaran Corporation for $61.50/share in cash, for a total deal valued at $12.8 billion. Teva entered a deal to acquire orphan drug developer Auspex for $101/share in cash, valuing the firm around $3.2 billion. Simon Property Group ended its hostile bid for Macerich after the deadline passed on its best and final offer of $95.50/share. Shares of Macerich fell hard, but recovered some ground on Thursday after reports emerged that activist investor Jonathan Litt was upset with Macerich's tactics in dealing with the offer and that in response he has nominated four director candidates. Shares of Lorillard and Reynolds were volatile on reports that the FTC was discussing possible remedies to be required for the proposed merger of the two tobacco firms to close. Recall the two entered a stock-and-cash deal valued around $27 billion last July.

The Shanghai Composite rose for the 4th consecutive week, gaining another 4% and reaching a new 7-year high above 3,850. Property sector names continued their strong performance early in the week after the PBoC decision to lower down-payments on 2nd mortgages from 60% to 40% and to do away with the "business tax" on transactions of homes purchased for over 2 years. Chinese markets were also helped by PBoC governor Zhou commenting that the central bank is increasingly focused on deflation, raising expectations for a steady increase in monetary easing in the pipeline. March PMIs released later in the week were mixed. The official manufacturing PMI figure returned to expansion after two months of contraction, but the rebound was largely attributed to seasonal post-holiday demand. The Non-manufacturing PMI slipped to 53.7 from 53.9. Both reports expressed concern over the slowdown in demand for labor, potentially raising a political issue for leadership in Beijing down the line.

The Nikkei225 was little changed for the week, consolidating an otherwise impressive month of March above the 19,000 level - although a powerful reversal is to be expected after Friday's Yen rally following the lackluster US jobs report. Japan's quarterly Tankan survey offered few signs of building momentum. The flat assessment of large manufacturing was somewhat worrisome, considering that it is the sector of the economy that prompted the most optimism from the BOJ in recent months, while the CapEx portion of the report showed its first decline in 2 years. The outlook for inflation among companies as surveyed by the BOJ also fell short of the official 2% inflation target several years forward.

(BFW) RATES: Fed is ‘Clearly On Hold’ for Rest of 2015, Di Galoma Says



RATES: Fed is ‘Clearly On Hold’ for Rest of 2015, Di Galoma Says
2015-04-03 12:43:58.0 GMT


By James Holloway
(Bloomberg) -- “Fed is clearly on hold for the balance of
the year,” ED&F Man head of rates/credit Tom Di Galoma writes
in note.
* “They have may trouble raising rates in 2016 at this pace.
There is no inflation and until that is seen the Fed will be
sidelined for months to come”
* “Bottom line here, this is not a positive report for
the US economy”
* “Bottom line here, this is not a positive report for
the US economy”</li></ul>



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(BFW) Bill Gross Sees 1 Fed Rate Increase in 2015



Bill Gross Sees 1 Fed Rate Increase in 2015
2015-04-03 12:51:45.249 GMT


By Tom Kohn
(Bloomberg) -- Gross says obviously the economy is cooling,
very bullish on Treasuries.
* Gross says Yellen to go gradually, Fed raising rates 50bps
per year would put rates at 2% in 2018
* Janus Capital’s Gross comments in Bloomberg TV interview
* NOTE: U.S. March nonfarm payrolls miss ests. Link


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WSJ : A Brief History of the Iranian Oil Industry


A Brief History of the Iranian Oil Industry
Oil discovery in 1908 laid foundation for oil industry and BP

In 1908, the Anglo-Persian oil company struck oil at Masjid-i-Suleiman in the southwest of modern day Iran, the end of a seven-year odyssey of dry holes, disease and mounting debts. The discovery laid the foundations for the company that would one day become BP PLC and the rise of one of the world’s biggest oil powers.

Over the last century, Iran has become one of the world’s largest oil producers and a hard-nosed hawk within the ranks of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries known for its frequent challenges to Saudi Arabia’s dominance of the oil cartel.

Now that the framework of an agreement to lift sanctions on Iran has been reached, the cloistered country could open up again soon. But its relationship with western oil companies has been checkered.

For 40 years after it was first discovered, Iranian oil flowed to Europe, fueling two world wars and building resentment in Iran over the exploitation of national resources by western companies. In 1951, Iranian Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadeq nationalized the oil industry, kicking out the company then known as Anglo-Iranian, now BP. That triggered a Western-sponsored coup, opened Iran to a new consortium of western companies and put the country on course for its 1979 revolution.

The rise of the Islamic Republic spelled the end of western participation in the Iranian oil industry until the late 1990s.

“It was kind of a very tumultuous and difficult history and it’s still very present in people’s minds today,” said Valerie Marcel, associate fellow at U.K.-based Chatham House.

Iran began opening up before the turn of the century, courting the expertise of international oil companies to help increase production. European oil companies invested billions of dollars in the country, eager to gain access to Iran’s vast reserves despite tough terms.

Within a decade the brief bonanza was over. European oil companies withdrew as the West tightened sanctions on the Islamic Republic in response to concerns over its nuclear program. Over the last few years Iran’s oil production has fallen from around 3.6 million barrels a day in 2011 to 2.8 million barrels a day in 2014.

“Some foreign companies may be eager to return, but Iran still has to overcome its reputation, retool contracts and convince the world they are—and will remain—open for business,” said Matthew Reed, an analyst at Washington-based consultancy Foreign Reports.

>>> US Close


Closing Market Summary: S&P 500 Ekes Out Slim Weekly Gain

The major averages eked out modest gains on Thursday after spending the day inside narrow ranges. The S&P 500 gained 0.4% while the Nasdaq Composite (+0.1%) underperformed. The market ended the abbreviated week on a mixed note with the S&P 500 adding 0.3% while the Nasdaq shed 0.1% for the week.

Today's session was very quiet with the S&P 500 bouncing between its 100- (2,060) and 50-day moving averages (2,073). The index settled in the top half of its trading range, but it is worth noting that many participants chose to forego the session, evidenced by light trading volume. To that point, fewer than 700 million shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.

Still, nine of ten sectors registered gains with telecom services (+0.9%) spending the day ahead of its peers. Meanwhile, the remaining three countercyclical groups posted slimmer gains. Notably, the health care sector (+0.2%) registered a modest gain despite intraday weakness in biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 339.70, -0.38) shed 0.1%.

The relative weakness in biotechnology kept the Nasdaq Composite behind the S&P 500 while high-beta chipmakers also lagged. Micron (MU 26.72, -0.41) lost 1.5% after reporting a bottom-line beat and issuing below-consensus revenue guidance while the broader PHLX Semiconductor Index slipped 0.3%.

Conversely, chipmakers also pressured the technology sector (-0.1%), which was the only group ending in the red. The modest loss was not entirely due to weakness among microchip names as several large cap components like Google (GOOGL 541.31, -8.18), Microsoft (MSFT 40.29, -0.43), and Qualcomm (QCOM 67.97, -1.46) dropped between 1.1% and 2.1%.

Elsewhere among cyclical groups, the energy sector (+0.2%) settled just above its flat line while crude oil endured a volatile session before ending lower by 1.8% at $49.10/bbl. On a related note, leaders from six countries and Iran agreed on a general framework for a deal that will require Iran to reduce its uranium stockpiles in exchange for the removal of sanctions that are currently in place. The deadline for the final agreement has been pushed back to June 30.

Also of note, the consumer discretionary sector (+0.9%) finished ahead of other cyclical groups thanks to broad strength. Homebuilders rallied with the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 28.61, +0.48) climbing 1.7% while media names like CBS (CBS 61.16, +1.54), Comcast (CMCSA 57.94, +0.88), and Time Warner (TWX 85.00, +2.20) also posted solid gains.

Treasuries spent the day in a steady slide from their early morning highs, sending the 10-yr yield higher by five basis points to 1.91%.

Economic data included ISM Index, Construction Spending, ADP Employment, and MBA Mortgage Index:
  • The ADP National Employment Report revealed that employment in the nonfarm private business sector rose by 189K in March while the consensus expected an increase of 225K 
    • The February reading was revised up to 214,000 from 212,000 
  • The ISM Manufacturing Index declined to 51.5 in March from 52.9 in February while thé consensus expected a decrease to 52.5 
    • Nearly all of the regional manufacturing surveys pointed toward a sharp deceleration in the national manufacturing index so the drop in the ISM Index shouldn't have been much of a surprise 
    • Production levels actually improved, albeit by a very small margin, as the related index increased to 53.8 in March from 53.7 in February 
  • Construction spending declined 0.1% in February after declining a downwardly revised 1.7% (from -1.1%) in January while the consensus expected a decline of 0.3% 
    • The unseasonably harsh winter weather conditions, which were blamed for a significant downturn in new housing starts, had little to no effect on overall construction levels 
      • Total private construction increased 0.2% in February after declining 1.1% in January 
  • The weekly MBA Mortgage Index rose 4.6% to follow last week's 9.5% spike
Tomorrow, the Nonfarm Payrolls report for March (consensus 250K) will be released at 8:30 ET even though the stock market will be closed.
  • Nasdaq Composite +3.2% YTD 
  • Russell 2000 +4.1% YTD 
  • S&P 500 +0.4% YTD 
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.3% YTD