Austria Fin Min: Reiterates cannot say if there will be deal on Greek debt on May 11 - Notes Greece has changed positions in some areas, no movement in other areas
--> Upgrading Back to Buy As Risk/Reward Now Positively Skewed Post the Recent Downdraft; Price Target Remains Unch at €4.15
* Upgrading ALU back to Buy from Neutral after downgrading it 3 wks ago, as ALU traded lower on NOK’s Q1 earnings miss creating 33% upside to our €4.15 PT.
* We now believe there is a greater possibility NOK and ALU renegotiate the merger terms, as ALU stock has fallen 27% from the original €4.28/shr implied purchase price and others could join ALU’s #2 shareholder who publicly stated it does not plan to tender its stock under the current terms. We believe the probability Nokia sweetens deal by adding a cash component is now higher.
* We do believe ALU could miss Q1 Street estimates following in ERIC and NOK’s footsteps on slower US spending; however, we believe that is now largely reflected in ALU shares, which now trade with NOK due to the fixed merger ratio.
* On the flipside, ALU shares could also benefit should Nokia make a positive announcement, such as selling its HERE business or negotiating a new licensing agreement with Samsung. We anticipate both catalysts within the next year.
* Our Bear Case price for ALU is €2.90, based on a 1.0xEV/’15 rev for routing and 0.5x EV/’15 rev for others, equal to levels for distressed assets. We do not believe regulatory approval in the U.S. is guaranteed, which aside from shareholder backlash appears to be the biggest risk factor for the deal not closing.
* We also believe ALU would be in a better position than Nokia should the deal break, as ALU has a well-diversified business across optical, routing, fixed access, and wireless vs. Nokia’s exposure to just wireless – exactly the premise NOK gave for the deal in the first place. We believe ALU shares are also attractive on a standalone basis, and our €4.15 PT equates to a 13.8x P/E on ’16 EPS of €0.30, assuming normalized op margin of 10%, a discount to our NOK PT at 16x P/E.
Global annual spending on cancer drugs has hit $100bn for the first time as the pharmaceuticals industry prepares to launch a fresh generation of treatments that promise to push costs even higher.
The record 2014 figure marks a 10 per cent increase from a year earlier, largely because of rising drug prices and increased incidence of cancer.
The data, from the IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics, a respected US research organisation, comes at a time of growing excitement among medics and investors over new cancer drugs heralded as the biggest step forward in oncology for decades.
Merck & Co, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Roche and AstraZeneca are among those developing so-called cancer immunotherapies that harness the body’s immune system to fight tumours.
The earliest of these have been launched in the US in recent months at prices amounting to about $150,000 a year — generating fresh optimism around the pharmaceuticals industry after a decade of sluggish growth.
However, the expected surge of expensive new cancer drugs has raised questions over their affordability for healthcare systems already struggling with the rising cost of caring for an ageing world population.
“Earlier diagnosis, longer treatment duration and increased effectiveness of drug therapies are contributing to rising levels of spending on medicines for cancer,” said the IMS report.
The compound annual growth rate in cancer drug spending increased to 6.5 per cent over the past five years and this was forecast by IMS to rise further to 6-8 per cent between now and 2018 as new treatments arrive.
“New therapeutic classes and combination therapies will change the cancer landscape over the next several years,” the report said.
A scramble for high-margin cancer assets has been a factor in the mergers and acquisitions boom across the pharmaceuticals sector, including AbbVie’s $21bn takeover in March of Pharmacyclics, maker of a fast-growing blood cancer drug.
IMS said rising prices would be mitigated by increased competition — particularly in immunotherapies as dozens of pharma groups and smaller biotech companies vie for position in the nascent market.
“The strong pipeline of medicines in clinical development ... suggests that direct competition will increase in the next five years,” said IMS. “Certain tumours, such as non–small cell lung cancer, will become battlegrounds, with multiple classes and multiple products within classes competing.”
Biosimilars — lower-cost copies of complex biological drugs — would also act as a pressure valve on costs as patent expiries loom for several best-selling oncology drugs, such as Roche’s Herceptin breast cancer treatment.
The US accounted for 42.2 per cent of the oncology market in 2014, well ahead of Europe. But cancer drugs accounted for a bigger share of total drug spending in the top five European markets at almost 14.7 per cent, compared with 11.3 per cent in the US. This proportion increased in all regions of the world in the past five years.
Average per capita spending on cancer drugs was highest in the US at $99 in 2014, up from $71 in 2010, but the biggest increase was in the UK where it rose 67 per cent over the period to just over $40. Britain’s National Health Service has this year cut access to several cancer drugs deemed insufficiently cost-effective in order to rein in spending.
Rising incidence of cancer poses a big policy challenge for global health systems as populations age — exposing more people to the biggest risk factor behind the disease: old age.
The number of over-65s on the planet is projected almost to triple between 2010 and 2050 to 1.5bn, according to the UN. This, in turn, will spur a 70 per cent increase in cancer incidence over the next 20 years, according to the World Health Organisation.
Sika: FINMA rejects Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Cascade Investment appeal regarding TOB's opting out clause decision
The FINMA takeover committee has rejected the appeal made by William H. Gates III and Melinda French Gates (as trustees of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust) and Cascade Investment, L.L.C against the TOB decision 598/01 in the matter of Sika AG.
In response to a request, the Swiss Takeover Board (TOB) concluded in decision 598/01 of 1 April 2015 that the opting out clause set out in Article 5 of Sika AG's articles of association does apply to the transaction between Schenker-Winkler Holding AG (SWH) and Compagnie de Saint-Gobain (Saint-Gobain) whereby SWH, Saint-Gobain, or any persons acting in concert with them, are not obliged to present a public takeover offer to the Sika AG shareholders.
William H. Gates III, Melinda French Gates and Cascade Investment, L.L.C subsequently lodged an appeal against the TOB decision with FINMA Takeover Committee. In its decision of 4 May 2015, the FINMA Takeover Committee has rejected their appeal.
Jazztel/Orange outstanding assets suitor Yoigo considers bid for rival MasMovil
Yoigo, the Spanish mobile operator owned by the Swedish teleco Telia Sonera is considering an offer for its Spanish rival MasMovil, the Spanish-language paper Expansion reported.
Yoigo Chief Executive Eduardo Taulet said on Sunday that should MasMovil acquire outstanding assets from Orange’s acquisition of Jazztel, Yoigo would consider a commercial or corporate agreement with MasMovil.
As reported, MasMovil is a frontrunner to acquire the ADSL network that French teleco Orange may have to sell in order to obtain the EC’s approval for its EUR 3.4bn acquisition of the Spanish operator Jazztel.
MAB-listed MasMovil has a market capitalisation of EUR 217.6m.
Expansion
Holcim shareholder Harris Associates supports Lafarge merger
Harris Associates, a US-based shareholder in Swiss cement group Holcim, has confirmed its support for the merger of Holcim and France-based Lafarge, Tagesanzeiger reported. The Swiss daily cited a Harris Associates spokesperson who said that it would vote in favour of the merger. Harris Associates owns a 6% stake in Holcim.
Holcim shareholders are due to vote on the merger on Friday. Two other large Holcim shareholders, Thomas Schmidheiny and Filaret Galchev, have come out backing the deal, the report stated.
The original article appeared in print: Page 36
Source Tagesanzeiger
Dow+0,26% S&P+0,29% Nasdaq+0,23% Russell+0,42% VIX @ 12.85 (+1.18%)
US Market closed higher on a quiet day as Nikkei & FTSE were closed for holidays. Seven of ten sectors finished in the green with financials (+1.0%) and utilities (+0.7%) ending in the lead. The countercyclical utilities sector lost the lead during the final hour while financials crept higher throughout the day, also overtaking the health care sector (+0.6%) during afternoon action. Energy sector (-0.2%) was an early leader, but the group surrendered its early gain during the opening hour and remained in negative territory until the close. Crude oil weighed, but the energy component managed to trim its loss to 0.3% by the close. WTI crude settled at $58.92/bbl, likely seeing some pressure from the second consecutive advance in the Dollar...Volume were lights @ 680mil shares...US After Hours ATEN +17.8%, IM +16.3%, NLS +15.5%, QLYS -26.9%, ACRX -26.2%, RAIL -9% following earnings/gudiance...PTBI+36% on Soros Fund disclosed 5.17% in 13G...ACRX -26% FDA meeting denied, FDA required additional clinical study...In Asia,Reserve Bank of Australia cuts interest rates by 25bps in line with expectations to a new record low of 2.00%. RBA cited stronger growth in employment in the past 6 months, further depreciation of AUD seems likely and necessary and inflation to be consistent with target in next 1- 2 years. Australia's trade balance has stayed in deficit of $1.3B signaling 12th consecutive trade deficit. Exports data declined first time in 7 months. Looking into commodity components, iron ore and crude oil exports both lower than prior month. In China, the PBoC continued to suspend open market operations for the 5th consecutive session. Shanghai Composite dropped by 1.8% in the morning session amid concern on more market cooling measures as some Chinese brokerage companies raised margin requirements to control risks. Energy companies provided some support on oil and gas reform speculation as well as shuffle the leadership of top three oil companies, Sinopec, PetroChina and CNOOC.
Nikkei +0.06% Hang Seng -1.27% Shanghai -2.44%
Eur$ 1.1133 RUB $52.0345 EURCHF 1.0414 CHF 0.9354 WTI $58.90(-0.05%)
S&P -0.09% EuroStoxx -0.25% Dax -0.34% SMI +0.21
Macro :
- China Breaches 10% of Global Market Cap as H.K. Overtakes Japan
- Greek Exit From Euro Area Would Pose ‘Numerous Dangers’: Juncker
- *EU SAID TO SEE ITALY GROWTH 0.6% IN ’15, 1.4% IN ’16: ANSA
Keep an eye on :
- ABI BB : AB InBev Spends EU10.3m Buying Back 90,000 Shares April 27
- ADS GY : Adidas 1Q Sales Beat Ests., Confirms 2015 Outlook
- ADP FP : Aeroports de Paris 1Q Rev. EU662m vs Pro Forma EU637m
- AH NA : Ahold’s Czech Unit to Contribute to Profit From 2016: Telegraaf
- AF FP : Air France Seeks About EU1B of Savings, Les Echos Says
- AREVA FP : Areva to Seek Thousands of Job Cuts at May 6 Meet, Figaro Says
- BSLN SW : Basilea reports start of first-in-human phase 1 oncology study with oral panRAF kinase inhibitor
- BNP FP : BNP Paribas PF Unit Investigated for Misleading Marketing
- CRI FP : Chargeurs Confirms 2015 Target as 1st-Quarter Sales Rise
- CSGN VX : Credit Suisse Drops SEC Waiver Ask Amid Opposition, Reuters Says
- DUFN SW : Dufry 1Q Sales In Line With Ests., Ebit Beats
- F IM : Fiat Chrysler Nears Choice on Ferrari IPO Banks: Sole
- GSZ FP : Engie Hired Banks to Advise On Areva Services Purchase: Echos
- HEI GY : HeidelbergCement Upgraded to Buy at UBS on Cash Return Potential
- HOLN VX : Holcim, Lafarge Obtain Merger Clearances in U.S., Canada, to Divest Assets to Complete Deal, FTC Says
- IFX GY : Infineon 2Q Sales Beat Ests.; Sees 3Q Rev. Growth at 7-11%
- LG FP : Holcim, Lafarge Obtain Merger Clearances in U.S., Canada, to Divest Assets to Complete Deal, FTC Says
- LHA GY : Lufthansa 1Q Oper Loss EU133m vs EU209m Loss Y/y
- LLOY LN : Lloyds Upgraded to Buy; Jefferies Sees GBP6b Buyback Potential
- LUX IM : Luxottica 1Q Oper. Income, Net Beats Ests.
- MEO GY : Metro 2Q Sales In Line, Ebit Ex-Items Beats Ests., Keeps Outlook
- MOR GY : Morphosys 1Q Rev., Cons. Net Profit Rise; Confirms 2015 Outlook
- NOK1V FH : Facebook Signs Deal to Use Nokia’s Here Mapping: TechCrunch
- ORP FP : Orpea Confirms Full-Year Sales Target; 1Q Revenue In Line
- PFV GY : Pfeiffer Vacuum 1Q Ebit EU16.4m vs EU10.2m
- RKET GY : Rocket Internet 2014 Sales Up 43%; Posts Cons. Net Loss
- SGO FP : Saint-Gobain Calls for Constructive Talks on Sika Governance
- SIK VX : Finma Rejects Sika Offer Appeal by Gates, Cascade
- SIK VX : Saint-Gobain Calls for Constructive Talks on Sika Governance
- SDA1V FH : Sponda 1Q Revenue Meets Estimates; Reiterates FY Outlook
- SY1 GY : Symrise 1Q Sales Beat Estimates; Confirms 2015, M/T Targets
- O2D GY : Telefonica Deutschland 1Q Sales, Oibda Beat; Confirms Outlook
- UBSN VX : UBS Says Discussions With DoJ at Advanced Stage, No Agreement, UBS 1Q Leverage Ratio Rises 4.6%, CET1 Rises 50bps
>>> Up
*ALCATEL-LUCENT RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI
*AZIMUT RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT MEDIOBANCA
*HAVAS RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*HEIDELBERGCEMENT RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*LLOYDS RAISED TO BUY AT JEFFERIES
*PRYSMIAN RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI
*RBS RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS REDUCE AT NOMURA
*SULZER RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE
*TOPDANMARK RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*ZURICH INSURANCE RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT: BARCLAYS
>>> Down
*AEGON CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*ALLIANZ CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*ANGLO AMERICAN CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC
*GENERALI CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*MTU AERO ENGINES CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*RSA INSURANCE CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*SUEZ ENVIRONNEMENT CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*TALANX CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*TAYLOR WIMPEY CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT LIBERUM
>>> PT Change
>>> Initiation
*BT GROUP REINSTATED OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS, PT 600P
*DELTA LLOYD RATED NEW UNDERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS, PT EU15.30
*HANNOVER RUECK SE RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT JEFFERIES
*NN GROUP RATED NEW UNDERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS, PT EU25.20
*SCOR SE RATED NEW HOLD AT JEFFERIES
>>> Call
>> Sector
*EUROPEAN INSURANCE CUT TO NEGATIVE VS NEUTRAL AT BARCLAYS
*EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
Asian Mid-session Update: RBA cuts rate to record low; Australian trade deficit deteriorates
***Economic Data***
*(AU) RBA CUTS CASH RATE TARGET BY 25BPS TO 2.00%, AS EXPECTED
*(ID) INDONESIA Q1 GDP Q/Q: -0.2% V +0.3%E, Y/Y: 4.7% V 4.9%E (slowest annual pace since 2009)
*(AU) AUSTRALIA MAR TRADE BALANCE: -A$1.3B V -A$1.0BE (12th consecutive deficit and widest in 6 months)
*(PH) PHILIPPINES APR CPI M/M: 0.2% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 2.2% V 2.4%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 2.5% V 2.7%E
*(TW) TAIWAN APR CPI Y/Y: -0.8% V -0.7%E; WPI Y/Y: -9.2% V -7.9%E
(AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 108.7 v 111.8 prior
*(AU) AUSTRALIA APR AIG PERFORMANCE OF SERVICES INDEX: 49.7 V 50.2 PRIOR; First contraction in 3 months
***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 closed, S&P/ASX +0.4%, Kospi closed, Shanghai Composite -0.6%, Hang Seng +0.4%, Jun S&P500 -0.1% at 2,108
***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Jun gold flat at $1,186/oz, Jun crude oil -0.1% at $58.86/brl, May copper -0.1% at $2.92/lb
- (CN) PBoC won't conduct open market operations (OMO) in today's session (5th consecutive halt)
- USD/CNY: PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1180 v 6.1165 prior setting; Weakest Yuan setting since Apr 28th
***Market Focal Points/FX***
- Reserve Bank of Australia cuts interest rates by 25bps in line with expectations to a new record low of 2.00%. RBA cited stronger growth in employment in the past 6 months, further depreciation of AUD seems likely and necessary and inflation to be consistent with target in next 1- 2 years. AUD/USD initially fell about 54pips testing $0.7790 before bouncing back towards $0.7910 while S&P/ASX erased earlier gain. 3-year and 10-year bond yields both move higher post decision. Moreover, Citigroup noted earlier that RBA has called for preferred AUD/USD exchange rate around $0.75 as latest runup supports the case for a cut today.
- Australia's trade balance has stayed in deficit of $1.3B signaling 12th consecutive trade deficit. Exports data declined first time in 7 months. Looking into commodity components, iron ore and crude oil exports both lower than prior month.
- In China, the PBoC continued to suspend open market operations for the 5th consecutive session. Shanghai Composite dropped by 1.8% in the morning session amid concern on more market cooling measures as some Chinese brokerage companies raised margin requirements to control risks. Energy companies provided some support on oil and gas reform speculation as well as shuffle the leadership of top three oil companies, Sinopec, PetroChina and CNOOC.
***Equities***
US equities / ADRs:
- IRG: Reports Q1 -$0.04 v -$0.06e, R$122.2M v $123Me; -3.0% afterhours
- QLYS: Reports Q1 $0.15 v $0.11e, R$37.5M v $37.7Me; +5.6% afterhours
- IM: Reports Q1 $0.43 v $0.44e, R$10.64B v $10.6Be; +0.5% afterhours
- ACRX: Reports Q1 $-0.27 v -$0.28e, R$0.18M v $0.09M y/y; Provides Zalviso Regulatory Update; +4.2% afterhours
- THC: Reports Q1 $0.67 adj v $0.31e, R$4.43B v $4.34Be; +3.8% afterhours
- IDTI: Reports Q4 $0.29 v $0.26e, R$158.4M v $158Me; -2.1% afterhours
- EOG: Reports Q1 $0.03 v $0.01e, R$2.32B v $2.56Be; +0.5% afterhours
- CAR: Reports Q1 $0.17 v $0.14e, R$1.85B v $1.93Be; +0.8% afterhours
- RAIL: Reports Q1 -$0.17 v +$0.29e, R$98M v $191Me; +2.1% afterhours
- ELNK: Reports Q1 -$0.10 v -$0.17e, R$282.4M v $272Me; +1.0% afterhours
- RGR: Reports Q1 $0.81 v $0.64e, R$137M v $121Me; +6.7% afterhours
Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer discretionary: SJM Holding 880.HK -1.0% (Q1 results)
- Financials: ANZ Bank ANZ.AU +3.4% (H1 results); Sunac China 1918.HK -2.6% (Sunac to adjust consideration price for transactions); China Vanke 000002.CN -1.9% (April data); Haitong International Securities Group 665.HK -8.7% (raises margin requirement); Ardent Leisure Group AAD.AU +10.1% (Q3 results)
- Energy: CNOOC 883.HK +0.6%, PetroChina 857.HK +0.6%, Sinopec 386.HK +1.1% (appoint new Chairmans, expects China oil and gas reform)
- Technology: Chinasoft International 354.HK -4.5% (issues new shares)
- Materials: China National Building Material 3323.HK -0.6% (Q1 results); Asia Cement China Holdings 743.HK -0.9% (Q1 results)
After Hours Summary: ATEN +17.8%, IM +16.3%, NLS +15.5%, QLYS -26.9%, ACRX -26.2%, RAIL -9% following earnings/gudiance
After Hours Gainers:
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: ATEN +17.8%, IM +16.3%, NLS +15.5%, ELNK +9.3%, CHUY +8.4%, ECOM +4.9%, MERU +4.5%, TXRH +4.3%, NUVA +3.8%, TCPI +3.7%, ININ +3.7%, LMNX +3.6%, AEGR +3.5%, XPO +3.3%, CTT +3.1%, MATX +3%, DENN +1.9%, IDTI +1.8%, THC +1.7%, VMC +1.0%, CDE +0.9%, CGNX +0.9%, PCOM +0.8%, FN +0.6%, IMPR +0.6%, PACD +0.2%, HIL +0.2%, CXO +0.2%, STAG +0.2%
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: PTBI +36.0% (Soros Fund Management disclosed 5.17% passive stake in 13G filing), ECOM +4.9% (named David Spitz CEO and Scot Wingo Executive Chairman effective today; co also reported earnings), BCO +2.1% (Starboard Value disclosed 8.2% active stake in 13D filing), BNFT +1.8% (announced the signing of a reseller agreement with SAP), ISSI +1.6% (Starboard Value increased active stake to 11.5% from 9.9% in amended 13D filing), CGNX +0.9% (announced a reinstatement of its quarterly dividend to $0.07/share; co also reported earnings)
After Hours Losers:
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: QLYS -26.9%, ACRX -26.2%, RAIL -9%, EOX -7.7%, RGR -6.1%, URG -5.4%, XNCR -5.2%, KS -5%, PTCT -4.3%, SNHY -3.7%, ROSE -3.5%, PQ -3.4%, INVN -2.8%, OTTR -2.7%, MIC -2.3%, BALT -2.1%, LSCC -1.6%, CAR -1.3%, MCEP -1.2%, TGTX -1%, EOG -0.9%, ADEP -0.7%, DVA -0.5%, FCE.A -0.4%, XEC -0.1%, DNB -0.1%
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: ACRX -26.2% (co's request for a meeting with the FDA was denied; FDA reiterated that an additional clinical study will be required for Zalviso), HELI -3.5% (announced appointment of Lee Eckert as successor CFO, effective July 16, 2015), ACHC -3.3% (announced a proposed offering of 4.5 mln shares of common stock), MYCC -1.8% (announced secondary offering of 11 mln shares of common stock by a selling shareholder), VRSK -1.5% (announced a proposed $675 mln offering of common stock), EGLE -1.2% (disclosed departure of COO Alexis P. Zoullas)